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Central PA - March 2018


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42 minutes ago, paweather said:

Pretty crazy that finally we have consensus with models. It took a long time for it. Could always go the other way at 18z. 

well at least well only have wasted 6 hours thinking storm was coming and not 36.

(protection mehcanism of thinking that despite the growing consensus - we still find a way to fail....in hopes of protecting my inner weenie). 

 

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

@AllWeather I hate to be you right now. 

I need a drink! These last two weeks have been incredible. 

 

As for our storm, I’ve been looking at this fully as two pieces for several days. Shortwave currently shooting through the Midwest streaks our way while a ribbon of vorticity behind it that phases with the northern stream. 

 

Meanwhile, the initial vort sort of phases/shears out as the phasing system begins to tilt. 

 

I’ll be honest, this is a head scratcher, but some things becoming clear. Will take heavy rates of snow to overcome the Sun angle and marginal BL temps this time of year. Then there’s the sleet potential to cut down on snow. I’d take the Tuesday snow maps and cut them AT LEAST by 50%. Even then, what accumulates will have a hard time on roads, unless it’s sleet, then that could make things slick. 

 

Then the Wednesday piece has the potential to give us good accumulating snow as early as late Tuesday. Again, banding is everything. 

 

Model wise, the Euro OP and ensembles have been VERY consistent and matched well the last few runs in a row. Before that, it was the GFS holding steady. The NAM run last night at 00z barely gave anything to this forum now all of a sudden dumps 10-15” snow? I’m skeptical of that. The CCB on Wednesday is the wild card and one to watch. Don’t think the initial wave tomorrow is a big deal. 

Im off today and on baby duty so my thoughts are somewhat incomplete as I’m not staring at the data like I would on a work day, but that’s what I see! 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

I need a drink! These last two weeks have been incredible. 

 

As for our storm, I’ve been looking at this fully as two pieces for several days. Shortwave currently shooting through the Midwest streaks our way while a ribbon of vorticity behind it that phases with the northern stream. 

 

Meanwhile, the initial vort sort of phases/shears out as the phasing system begins to tilt. 

 

I’ll be honest, this is a head scratcher, but some things becoming clear. Will take heavy rates of snow to overcome the Sun angle and marginal BL temps this time of year. Then there’s the sleet potential to cut down on snow. I’d take the Tuesday snow maps and cut them AT LEAST by 50%. Even then, what accumulates will have a hard time on roads, unless it’s sleet, then that could make things slick. 

 

Then the Wednesday piece has the potential to give us good accumulating snow as early as late Tuesday. Again, banding is everything. 

 

Model wise, the Euro OP and ensembles have been VERY consistent and matched well the last few runs in a row. Before that, it was the GFS holding steady. The NAM run last night at 00z barely gave anything to this forum now all of a sudden dumps 10-15” snow? I’m skeptical of that. The CCB on Wednesday is the wild card and one to watch. Don’t think the initial wave tomorrow is a big deal. 

Im off today and on baby duty so my thoughts are somewhat incomplete as I’m not staring at the data like I would on a work day, but that’s what I see! 

 

 

Thanks Matt and dont worry about being off.  Just come here and we'll keep you updated as whats going on.....hehe.  We'll post some fun weenie maps that you can use tomorrow :P

 

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12 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

I need a drink! These last two weeks have been incredible. 

 

As for our storm, I’ve been looking at this fully as two pieces for several days. Shortwave currently shooting through the Midwest streaks our way while a ribbon of vorticity behind it that phases with the northern stream. 

 

Meanwhile, the initial vort sort of phases/shears out as the phasing system begins to tilt. 

 

I’ll be honest, this is a head scratcher, but some things becoming clear. Will take heavy rates of snow to overcome the Sun angle and marginal BL temps this time of year. Then there’s the sleet potential to cut down on snow. I’d take the Tuesday snow maps and cut them AT LEAST by 50%. Even then, what accumulates will have a hard time on roads, unless it’s sleet, then that could make things slick. 

 

Then the Wednesday piece has the potential to give us good accumulating snow as early as late Tuesday. Again, banding is everything. 

 

Model wise, the Euro OP and ensembles have been VERY consistent and matched well the last few runs in a row. Before that, it was the GFS holding steady. The NAM run last night at 00z barely gave anything to this forum now all of a sudden dumps 10-15” snow? I’m skeptical of that. The CCB on Wednesday is the wild card and one to watch. Don’t think the initial wave tomorrow is a big deal. 

Im off today and on baby duty so my thoughts are somewhat incomplete as I’m not staring at the data like I would on a work day, but that’s what I see! 

 

 

Thanks Matt for the update!!!!

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17 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Damn, thats a long event then

This 12z euro run has roughly a quarter of the event qpf falling during the day tomorrow which unfortunately likely wont amount to much accumulation but always nice to see things whiten regardless.  Then better rates start early on Wednesday with that set up posted above for 8am with the closed 500mb low and surface low hugging the coast shown above with this run producing roughly .75" qpf for our area over approx. 12-18 hours.  Banding should look quite nice early Wednesday morning around the system the way the dynamics set up on this run and areas that can get under the best banding will be some big winners of the event.  Long duration event overall indeed.

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