pasnownut Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 4 hours ago, Voyager said: Jeez...when will it end??? I really hate back loaded winters. Some/many of us are still waiting for it to really start. Not complaining but this last 4-6 weeks has been brutal down here Just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z EPS today was the best run in a long time. It has around 3 to 4 inches of snow for most of us by this Wednesday with the first storm. Then the mean snow jumps to 6 to 8 inches for most of us by the middle of the following week. Overall, the best news is that around 40 of the 50 EPS ensemble members show at least a few inches of snow for us by the middle of next week. There are some very good hits mixed in, but most ensemble members show we have a legit chance at 2 snow events while we have this blocking. Out of town but will dig in when I get back tonight. Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 19 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Some/many of us are still waiting for it to really start. Not complaining but this last 4-6 weeks has been brutal down here Just sayin. I know. I'd just rather have winter in DJF than in March and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Voyager said: I know. I'd just rather have winter in DJF than in March and April. True dat. I was hoping for the same but now I’m searching for table scraps cause I’ve largely missed the main course. Is what it is. No biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 CTP....unenthusiastic about midweek event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 hours ago, pasnownut said: Some/many of us are still waiting for it to really start. Not complaining but this last 4-6 weeks has been brutal down here Just sayin. They've been brutal over here in West Michigan too. SE Michigan from Kalamazoo to Lansing to Detroit has gotten hit over and over again, just like they have the past several winters. Synoptic systems have been PATHETIC here this decade. I'll tell you...the snowstorms on the east coast are SO much better than these fizzling primaries that come to the Great Lakes to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 21 minutes ago, blackrock said: They've been brutal over here in West Michigan too. SE Michigan from Kalamazoo to Lansing to Detroit has gotten hit over and over again, just like they have the past several winters. Synoptic systems have been PATHETIC here this decade. I'll tell you...the snowstorms on the east coast are SO much better than these fizzling primaries that come to the Great Lakes to die. Yeah I agree with your synoptic statement. I think many of us long for a good old fashioned clean Miller A that climbs the coast and rakes the northeast with a powder bomb. For you I guess +Pna and -nao couplet are good for clipperfests right? I’d think that’s how you chip away at climo right? Get back east here and help us root on snow. How’s the search for NY relocation going? Get a big garage so I have a place to sleep when I come up in search of snow on the hill (tug hill). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah I agree with your synoptic statement. I think many of us long for a good old fashioned clean Miller A that climbs the coast and rakes the northeast with a powder bomb. For you I guess +Pna and -nao couplet are good for clipperfests right? I’d think that’s how you chip away at climo right? Get back east here and help us root on snow. How’s the search for NY relocation going? Get a big garage so I have a place to sleep when I come up in search of snow on the hill (tug hill). Yeah...the -epo is awesome in helping us out too. Winters here are either non-stop snow and about 140 inches for the winter, or a yawn fest of several weeks with some winter and then we get stuck in a boring pattern like we have for much of the second half of January and almost all of February, and we get around 70 inches of snow. Mind you..it's often fluff snow that melts FAST with the sight of any thaw. The average here is around 100 inches...and I am willing to bet that we only about 30 to 40 inches of that is synoptic. And most of that synoptic snow is several inch bouts. When we have a Low that stall north of Lake Superior is when we get some of our best snows. Lots of disturbances crossing the lakes with nice lake enhancement. With the annoyingly fast northern jet we have had much of this decade, those types of stalled out lows have been very few. Thanks for remembering about my job search. I've had a couple interviews but so far, a no-go. I had one in Lowville this past week that went really well. I am very much hoping to get it! Lowville is in Lewis County, RIGHT at the edge of the Tug Hill. Trust me...I will be finding a house between there and Montague on the Tug...and hope to be blowing up AmericanWx with some awesome snow pics!!!! I have a few other possibilities in Mexico, NY (Oswego County) and Watertown (Jefferson County) I can't believe how affordable the housing is in Oswego County. There are homes right on Lake Ontario that go for less than 200,000! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 GFS looks decent for the LSV for Tuesday-Wednesday .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 26 minutes ago, canderson said: GFS looks decent for the LSV for Tuesday-Wednesday .... Yes, this one seems to be trending in our favor. The GFS delivers 3-5 inches of snow to the LSV. The GFS also looks looks good for the storm early the following week & delivers another 3-5 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 4, 2018 Author Share Posted March 4, 2018 8 hours ago, Voyager said: Perfect time for me to do another California produce run. If I can get out of here on the 6th, I'll be gone until the 19th. I might catch a bit of the first one, but I'd likely be out west somewhere for the second one... As long as you add a stop in Altoona to your itinerary, since you seem to be a snow magnet these days haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 7 hours ago, MAG5035 said: As long as you add a stop in Altoona to your itinerary, since you seem to be a snow magnet these days haha. I'm not sure if I'm the snow magnet, or if the snow is a Steve magnet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 9 hours ago, blackrock said: Yeah...the -epo is awesome in helping us out too. Winters here are either non-stop snow and about 140 inches for the winter, or a yawn fest of several weeks with some winter and then we get stuck in a boring pattern like we have for much of the second half of January and almost all of February, and we get around 70 inches of snow. Mind you..it's often fluff snow that melts FAST with the sight of any thaw. The average here is around 100 inches...and I am willing to bet that we only about 30 to 40 inches of that is synoptic. And most of that synoptic snow is several inch bouts. When we have a Low that stall north of Lake Superior is when we get some of our best snows. Lots of disturbances crossing the lakes with nice lake enhancement. With the annoyingly fast northern jet we have had much of this decade, those types of stalled out lows have been very few. Thanks for remembering about my job search. I've had a couple interviews but so far, a no-go. I had one in Lowville this past week that went really well. I am very much hoping to get it! Lowville is in Lewis County, RIGHT at the edge of the Tug Hill. Trust me...I will be finding a house between there and Montague on the Tug...and hope to be blowing up AmericanWx with some awesome snow pics!!!! I have a few other possibilities in Mexico, NY (Oswego County) and Watertown (Jefferson County) I can't believe how affordable the housing is in Oswego County. There are homes right on Lake Ontario that go for less than 200,000! I know the hill and most areas you are looking. Used to stay at the Montague for my sledding. You definately are looking in all the right areas For snow. Redfield is a prob second to montague for snow. Housing is moderately priced because the local economy is lagging up there but for those that can find something good, you can live well. I have a friend in Barnes Corners that does just that All the best in your search you snow hound. Anyone that has the willingness /ability to move to an area largely based on snow is someone I tip my hat to. Keep us posted. Oh and yeah....it’s gonna snow. Just upgraded my summer fun to a Harley yesterday and can’t wait to ride. Expect feet of it now. (The things I do for snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: Oh and yeah....it’s gonna snow. Just upgraded my summer fun to a Harley yesterday and can’t wait to ride. Expect feet of it now. (The things I do for snow) Enjoy that Harley. In my opinion the only real motorcycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, Voyager said: Enjoy that Harley. In my opinion the only real motorcycle. spent most of my life saying I'd never do THAT..... I just did THAT. (See people can change). I now get the Harley thing and have so many friends that do it.....I just full out caved. Riding with other friends/couples is a blast. Truth is I've been around something with a motor playwise most of my liife, and with the snowmobiling being terrible for the last few years, I needed to ride something, and decided to buy a bike last year to test the waters with my wife and I. She ended up liking it alot, and yesterdays purchase was an upgrade for some quality "us" time. She and I had some great times (outside of the cave) last year. Looking forward to many more. Sorry for off topic disco. Its gonna snow :). Looking at 6z GFS is what I was thinking this needed to do for midweek. LP is bellying under the NAO block and we get less cooking of the mids before the transfer off Carolina's which cools them enough for some fun as the LP rides up the NE coast. Beyond that the 3/13 storm fits right into the period that has looked the best for a while now. IMO that one could be the one that gets it done, as the NAO looks to break down around Green Beer Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Going back OT for a minute again, but I wanted to share this weeks trucking vlog. I had to go to Rochester and Buffalo, and sweated what I was going to encounter, but it played out well for me. The snow held off till I parked for the night, then I spend the worst of the storm in the repair shop at the truckstop, and as such had a clean truck Friday morning when it was time to go to Buffalo to reload... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 12z gfs continues the evolution of something for eastern parts of the forum and now has E and SE Pa into accums. Still enough time to trend better/worse, but it actually looks like we are trending into something. Scarily close to nothing below us, so any adustements N (which is unlikely IMO due to the NAO) would put us back on the bench in the Southern reaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 53 minutes ago, pasnownut said: 12z gfs continues the evolution of something for eastern parts of the forum and now has E and SE Pa into accums. Still enough time to trend better/worse, but it actually looks like we are trending into something. Scarily close to nothing below us, so any adustements N (which is unlikely IMO due to the NAO) would put us back on the bench in the Southern reaches. The Nam jumped quite a bit East on it's run. Way more than the GFS. I'm not really seeing a whole lot of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Nam & GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 The 12z GFS gives the LSV 2 inches on average with the Tuesday/Wednesday storm. Then, it has a blockbuster coastal storm next Monday/Tuesday which crawls up the coast & delivers 6-10 inches of snow. If that track & slow movement would verify, I think those totals would produce even more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 The GEFS was good for the LSV with the Tuesday/Wednesday storm this week. It has the snow mean at 4-6 inches. 15 of the 20 ensemble members give the LSV at least a few inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 18z looking better for some snow accumulation at least east of river.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 4, 2018 Author Share Posted March 4, 2018 Surprised no one mentioned the 12z Euro, it wrecks C-PA with that follow up storm towards 11-12 March. Long way to go for that one but definitely a strong storm signal in the early going on most model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 43 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Surprised no one mentioned the 12z Euro, it wrecks C-PA with that follow up storm towards 11-12 March. Long way to go for that one but definitely a strong storm signal in the early going on most model guidance. I think we put all marbles in this one - tues/wed looks nuisance at best due to precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, canderson said: I think we put all marbles in this one - tues/wed looks nuisance at best due to precip rates. CTP is their discussion today seems to like the GEFS for the storm this Tuesday/Wednesday. They have a 80 % chance of snow in their local Harrisburg forecast. The GEFS at 18z again has 4-6 inches for the LSV. There are a lot of moving parts for this one, but I think we could end up with a few inches of snow out of this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: Surprised no one mentioned the 12z Euro, it wrecks C-PA with that follow up storm towards 11-12 March. Long way to go for that one but definitely a strong storm signal in the early going on most model guidance. The 12z Euro was an epic crushing snowstorm for most of CTP! It brought 14 inches of snow to Harrisburg, with more to the Northwest & less to the southeast. This is going to be a fun week of tracking, with perhaps an appetizer on Wednesday, & then a feast possible by Sunday or Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: CTP is their discussion today seems to like the GEFS for the storm this Tuesday/Wednesday. They have a 80 % chance of snow in their local Harrisburg forecast. The GEFS at 18z again has 4-6 inches for the LSV. There are a lot of moving parts for this one, but I think we could end up with a few inches of snow out of this setup. 0z NAM's are tugging this back far enough west to bring the eastern 1/3 of the state into some fluff from above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: 0z NAM's are tugging this back far enough west to bring the eastern 1/3 of the state into some fluff from above. Yes, the NAM really got Lancaster county into the good stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Nam is trolling us...See some of them totals for NEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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