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Central PA - March 2018


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I think this ends up an overall LSV special. 

Did anyone see the 18z short term extended Canadian High Res that was posted in the Mid Atlantic thread ?!?

It had the 30-40 mm QPF over the LSV, which upon checking a quick google calculator to convert, equates to 1.2 to 1.5 inches of Precip, which sounds just like the 18z NAM.

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8 minutes ago, paweather said:

I have the vibe the models are going back to their original ideas north and PA/NJ are in the bullyeyes I remembered last week when it literally snowed on us from Tuesday to Thursday

IF we can time it right the possibility is there. Imagine pulse #1 throwing down a blanket and then long duration snow on top as the coastal pops. 

Boy if it were only January. 

I’ll take it nonetheless 

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7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

IF we can time it right the possibility is there. Imagine pulse #1 throwing down a blanket and then long duration snow on top as the coastal pops. 

Boy if it were only January. 

I’ll take it nonetheless 

Me too. It’s March it will be gone in a couple of days but a good snowstorm is still a good snowstorm 

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7 minutes ago, paweather said:

Me too. It’s March it will be gone in a couple of days but a good snowstorm is still a good snowstorm 

Yeah man. Well take what we can get. 

I will make it for the 0z nams but y’all will hafta bring the overnights home for us. 

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41 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I have a feeling the NAM and GFS are going to nuke the LSV.

 

NAM was close to nuke but GFS still needs some work. GFS looked similar to 3k and Euro IMO. 

I will likely peek sometime later tonight and see if I will have sweet dreams or nightmares. 

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8 minutes ago, paweather said:

18Z gave us a foot of snow LOL. 

And 0z barely a drop of precip it appears!

Safe to toss the NAM into the garbage with inconsistencies like that. If Harrisburg gets 3” snow out of this setup I’ll eat my hat tho, it seems too complicated for us at this point. 

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Non-storm related:

Amazing temperature inversion this morning. i have a 12 mile drive to work. Temp was 27 when i left home, then fluctuated between 25 and 40 on my way in. Cold in the valleys and warm on top of Chickies. But a 15 degree swing is impressive! 

Storm related:

What a nightmare for mets. How in the world do you put out a forecast this morning for tomorrow and Wednesday? Cloudy with a chance of snow and rain i guess. Probably best to leave out amounts and just say that some accumulations are possible? I mean...this could just as easy be nothing at all, a huge deal, or something in between. Beyond just the model discrepancies there's air temps to worry about, rates, sun angle, day versus night, etc. All things considered as of right now i'd be more inclined to believe that this is a <6 event over a >6 event. We'll see...

 

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Non-storm related:
Amazing temperature inversion this morning. i have a 12 mile drive to work. Temp was 27 when i left home, then fluctuated between 25 and 40 on my way in. Cold in the valleys and warm on top of Chickies. But a 15 degree swing is impressive! 
Storm related:
What a nightmare for mets. How in the world do you put out a forecast this morning for tomorrow and Wednesday? Cloudy with a chance of snow and rain i guess. Probably best to leave out amounts and just say that some accumulations are possible? I mean...this could just as easy be nothing at all, a huge deal, or something in between. Beyond just the model discrepancies there's air temps to worry about, rates, sun angle, day versus night, etc. All things considered as of right now i'd be more inclined to believe that this is a 6 event. We'll see...
 

Agreed, very difficult. I have friends asking me and I am stumped. I told them 3 to 6 when pressed.


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