pasnownut Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, I agree 100 % ! It would nice to just have a low coming out of the 4 corners area of the soutwest that travels to Texas , picks up gulf moisture & then heads to the Carolina coast & then comes up the the mouth of the Delaware Bay. Of course with a good High parked over Quebec ! Ok, back to reality ! Maybe 1 time this year, complicated will work out for us ! Well fwiw I’m digging the 12z 12k out to 54. Coming north w part 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, I agree 100 % ! It would nice to just have a low coming out of the 4 corners area of the southwest that travels to Texas , picks up gulf moisture & then heads to the Carolina coast & then comes up to the mouth of the Delaware Bay. Of course with a good High parked over Quebec ! Ok, back to reality ! Maybe 1 time this year, complicated will work out for us ! Can we just have one juiced up Miller A just one please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 If that lead wave continues to slow down in the models, dang it’s going to be big.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Still going to be a tight cutoff with confluence.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 I will throw my two cents in and say, I really believe that the precipitation shield will shift further north on the first system. That should put folks in the lsv in some of good bands of precip. The second part is up in the air, but I'm leaning a miss on that. This is still out there some so don't give up yet! Everyone do there snow dance and we will be fine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Time to think about chasing to Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 This reminds me of 2010 with the confluence and tight cutoff. I remember we were on the edge till less than 24 hours, then the flood gates opened up with it moving more north. That’s where Harrisburg is currently. So it’s either going to be a heartbreak or a big hit it seems. Since it’s March I have more confidence of a last minute north move. . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 12z NAM looks brutal, but was this south of 6z or about the same? Last model runs I saw were 0z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, maytownpawx said: 12z NAM looks brutal, but was this south of 6z or about the same? Last model runs I saw were 0z last night. It came north of 06z. 12z is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3k high res was also further north than 12k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 12 minutes ago, daxx said: It came north of 06z. 12z is better. Good to know, thanks buddy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 13 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: This reminds me of 2010 with the confluence and tight cutoff. I remember we were on the edge till less than 24 hours, then the flood gates opened up with it moving more north. That’s where Harrisburg is currently. So it’s either going to be a heartbreak or a big hit it seems. Since it’s March I have more confidence of a last minute north move. . Pro I agree with your comments. Harrisburg tends to struggle with more of a Southwest to Northeast type cutoff, for example say I-95 as a dividing line. This time, as with December of 09, the early Feb. 2010 storms & even January of 2016,the cutoff is a true South to North cutoff. The heavy precip that the NAMs show extend the whole way back to far western MD & WV. We just needs general 50 mile or so jog north, & we are in the good 6-12 inch snow zone that is currently showing from Rt. 30 & south. I like where we stand for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 These models are a complete mess GFS is sheared and weak now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 38 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: 12z NAM looks brutal, but was this south of 6z or about the same? Last model runs I saw were 0z last night. Slightly north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, paweather said: These models are a complete mess GFS is sheared and weak now. I think if lead wave tends stronger it becomes “the main show”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Yea Gfs is a sheared strung out mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: Yea Gfs is a sheared strung out mess. Yeah it sure is. I think it’s struggling with who wins and is sheared out because if it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I think if lead wave tends stronger it becomes “the main show”. I agree but if we want this amped they somehow need to phase it looks like the CMC went back south a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 @Voyager CTP says not to worry ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 8 minutes ago, canderson said: @Voyager CTP says not to worry ... That’s so premature I wouldn’t waste time with it right now. Models are everywhere from amped to a shear mess. MA weenies have to be going nuts right now I won’t go back into that sub forum lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 22 minutes ago, paweather said: I agree but if we want this amped they somehow need to phase it looks like the CMC went back south a bit. Just a tad lol, I went from about 18" to a bs 1-2" that probably wouldn't be completely realized on the ground and H-burg went from 20"+ to on the edge with a few inches. I think last night's CMC run was def over the top given recent trends on the other guidance going further south, tighter with heavier QPF in the region. These models are seemingly taking turns at having horrendous run to run continuity. Models are obviously having trouble resolving how the energy comes out but they seem to be in agreement (using that term really loosely) of this two piece or two phase solution to the overall system and unless one of these features becomes dominant (preferably the first one for the sake of our region)... I would be pessimistic of much of a top end potential with accumulating snows wherever they ended up. That type of a longer duration possibly multi part event would do well with a cold Jan/Feb setup but we need rates to pile snow up with a marginal air mass in late March, especially during the day. Things still have time to come back north, but its going to be a struggle to get accumulating snows to I-80 or potentially even the turnpike. I know I'm good with getting fringed or missed by yet another storm.. I've had the market cornered on snowfalls under 3" this winter and if it isn't going to be big I'm ready for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Just a tad lol, I went from about 18" to a bs 1-2" that probably wouldn't be completely realized on the ground and H-burg went from 20"+ to on the edge with a few inches. I think last night's CMC run was def over the top given recent trends on the other guidance going further south, tighter with heavier QPF in the region. These models are seemingly taking turns at having horrendous run to run continuity. Models are obviously having trouble resolving how the energy comes out but they seem to be in agreement (using that term really loosely) of this two piece or two phase solution to the overall system and unless one of these features becomes dominant (preferably the first one for the sake of our region)... I would be pessimistic of much of a top end potential with accumulating snows wherever they ended up. That type of a longer duration possibly multi part event would do well with a cold Jan/Feb setup but we need rates to pile snow up with a marginal air mass in late March, especially during the day. Things still have time to come back north, but its going to be a struggle to get accumulating snows to I-80 or potentially even the turnpike. I know I'm good with getting fringed or missed by yet another storm.. I've had the market cornered on snowfalls under 3" this winter and if it isn't going to be big I'm ready for spring. Agree Mag. If it’s not a 6 plus snowstorm in March I am too ready to call it quits. The problem is I keep getting sucked in this year when I thought it was over and I’m a 3 for 3 miss on the Nor’easters LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Ukie showing how tight it could be.But being March, there is always that shift north so I think we’re in a “good” position.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 13 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Ukie showing how tight it could be. But being March, there is always that shift north so I think we’re in a “good” position. . I agree, even with the UKie, the LSV is only 75 miles from the 1 inch QPF line. We just need a subtle shift to be in the game. If I was near I-80, I would be concerned, but I think will shift north to get at least up to the Harrisburg to Lebanon area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Euro north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Euro north . Maybe the north trend has started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 State College and Willpo are out....god awful winter for Centre county peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Horst finally updated, said it's heading south. Though "it could still brush us with some wet snow." Doesn't sound like a big deal at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Horst finally updated, said it's heading south. Though "it could still brush us with some wet snow." Doesn't sound like a big deal at all...If based on GFS, totally agree. His update was before Euro. I still think this comes further north but won’t say that in other forum. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 12 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Horst finally updated, said it's heading south. Though "it could still brush us with some wet snow." Doesn't sound like a big deal at all... I’ll take the over on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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