paweather Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: actually it didnt. you need to toggle from 0z to 12z through all panels. That run is closer to epic than fail. 500 also lookes moderately fantastic. Doesnt close off but shows a slow progression once the transfer takes place. Thanks Nut. I am hoping the EURO holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 If my eyes aren't deceiving me, thats 1.75-2" for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said: Kuchera barely worse than 10:1 Puuurdy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Man... been burned too many times getting excited this far out but this seems to be a pretty unique setup that is just about perfect for us up here. Definitely gaining confidence in a significant event.... now let's see what can go wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, skiier04 said: Man... been burned too many times getting excited this far out but this seems to be a pretty unique setup that is just about perfect for us up here. Definitely gaining confidence in a significant event.... now let's see what can go wrong Buddy boy. Let me count the ways! Truth is we really just need to see continuity right now, and so long as no big surprises, probably tomorrow night or Sunday will likely show some pretty fun solutions that will raise eyebrows or....rip out hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Buddy boy. Let me count the ways! Truth is we really just need to see continuity right now, and so long as no big surprises, probably tomorrow night or Sunday will likely show some pretty fun solutions that will raise eyebrows or....rip out hair. More likely this one (( rip out hair )) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, 2001kx said: More likely this one (( rip out hair )) Save yourself some trouble...1/8” clipper setting.... no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 The EURO is rolling....let's hope for some good stuff. I wouldn't mind 24" to be my onion snow. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 18 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Save yourself some trouble...1/8” clipper setting.... no worries. I hope so...But the past is haunting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, 2001kx said: I hope so...But the past is haunting. so is your profile pic..... but we still like you . just having a little fun while waiting to get smoked by the Euro. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 EURO way south. Unreal these models have no continuity at all this winter. Cheers to NC this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, paweather said: EURO way south. Unreal these models have no continuity at all this winter. Cheers to NC this run! At the moment the greatest continuity belongs to the GFS. I'm riding that train for the time being. The king was dethroned with its most recent upgrade as we've seen over this past winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: At the moment the greatest continuity belongs to the GFS. I'm riding that train for the time being. The king was dethroned with its most recent upgrade as we've seen over this past winter. agreed. EURO was once the KING it didn't matter what any other model said but now this year far from it. They need to reverse the upgrade. I'll stick to the GFS as well and NAVGEM that also came in AMPED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 hour ago, paweather said: agreed. EURO was once the KING it didn't matter what any other model said but now this year far from it. They need to reverse the upgrade. I'll stick to the GFS as well and NAVGEM that also came in AMPED. Or if we compromise between the 2, I’d take that and call it a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 16, 2018 Author Share Posted March 16, 2018 Maybe the GFS eventually breaks some or all of our hearts with this system but man can we get some run to run continuity on the Euro? The op goes from big storm for the whole region at 0z to not even getting best precip north enough for DC to get in the best QPF today at 12z. Comparing 500mb it's definitely not as amplified with the features as the GFS. Last night's big run was a lot more similar to today's 12z GFS. It was just a couple days ago the Euro on the nw end of the envelope trying to cut the thing. Judging by some of the EC Ensemble stuff I saw posted in the MA thread it looks like it supports it's op pretty decently. Definitely a disconnect with model camps between GFS and Euro. With more support at the moment going towards the storm being further north with other guidance included I'd probably lean more towards a GFS ensemble mean blend for now.. especially favoring I-80 south. I def still think northern parts of the state could be on the edge.. but I am leaning on this thing getting north enough over being completely suppressed under us. The blocking pattern is pretty stout but I don't think it is overwhelmingly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Lol will pay attention Sunday night...until then tourney baby! Hail to the Victors and 'Ray Bucknell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: Maybe the GFS eventually breaks some or all of our hearts with this system but man can we get some run to run continuity on the Euro? The op goes from big storm for the whole region at 0z to not even getting best precip north enough for DC to get in the best QPF today at 12z. Comparing 500mb it's definitely not as amplified with the features as the GFS. Last night's big run was a lot more similar to today's 12z GFS. It was just a couple days ago the Euro on the nw end of the envelope trying to cut the thing. Judging by some of the EC Ensemble stuff I saw posted in the MA thread it looks like it supports it's op pretty decently. Definitely a disconnect with model camps between GFS and Euro. With more support at the moment going towards the storm being further north with other guidance included I'd probably lean more towards a GFS ensemble mean blend for now.. especially favoring I-80 south. I def still think northern parts of the state could be on the edge.. but I am leaning on this thing getting north enough over being completely suppressed under us. The blocking pattern is pretty stout but I don't think it is overwhelmingly so. Yeah man. I think a blended track is likely imo. Euro has not been stellar by any means and with many other camps in similar agreement I think we have a shot at something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 41 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah man. I think a blended track is likely imo. = No or very little Snow for us northerner's. Come on GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 The 18z GEFS is absolutely beautiful for CTP. This is not skewed by 1 or 2 ensemble members either. 18 of the 20 members deliver good snow to most of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 That is a sick mean for D5! Wowzer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 minute ago, whiteout said: That is a sick mean for D5! Wowzer Yes, that is the best look that we have seen at a 5 day lead this season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, that is the best look that we have seen at a 5 day lead this season! I do worry about the south trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 I wanna take that GEFS image out for dinner and a bottle of wine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 13 minutes ago, canderson said: I wanna take that GEFS image out for dinner and a bottle of wine. get it drunk and hey...... you might get lucky......weatherwise of course hahahaha...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Willing it to snow by reading this with my son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 10 hours ago, skiier04 said: Man... been burned too many times getting excited this far out but this seems to be a pretty unique setup that is just about perfect for us up here. Definitely gaining confidence in a significant event.... now let's see what can go wrong Just getting trolled by the models at this point haha. GFS on board with a straight up 0 for I80 north now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Hopefully the global models are in their mid- range crisis with the shifting south of the storm overnight. We have seen this movie before over the years... The NAM (long range NAM, yes I know..) has a nice swath of snow through CTP on Tuesday that delivered 8-10 inches of snow to most of us. Let’s hope we reverse the trend today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Hopefully the global models are in their mid- range crisis with the shifting south of the storm overnight. We have seen this movie before over the years... The NAM (long range NAM, yes I know..) has a nice swath of snow through CTP on Tuesday that delivered 8-10 inches of snow to most of us. Let’s hope we reverse the trend today! Yeah...we need a good Nam'ing about now to raise spirits before the rest of the 12z suite. We lost almost everything else overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Hopefully the global models are in their mid- range crisis with the shifting south of the storm overnight. We have seen this movie before over the years... The NAM (long range NAM, yes I know..) has a nice swath of snow through CTP on Tuesday that delivered 8-10 inches of snow to most of us. Let’s hope we reverse the trend today! I was worried about the south trends hopeful 12z delivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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