pasnownut Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: He’s got a lot of reason to be concerned. That’s exactly what my forecast would be at this lead. I’m a student of his. Cut from a similar cloth and style of forecasting. I’ll be a little more aggressive with calls, but his clientele base is the public, so tough to go all out. . Thanks for the writup bud. Yeah he’s going to ride the line and especially after last weeks shafting I don’t blame him. This one seems to have a little more play room though for the LSV. Just hoping for a good transfer...and a stall off ocmd. Would be awesome if it verified. We’d be raked in CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: He’s got a lot of reason to be concerned. That’s exactly what my forecast would be at this lead. I’m a student of his. Cut from a similar cloth and style of forecasting. I’ll be a little more aggressive with calls, but his clientele base is the public, so tough to go all out. . I've been following the MU site for as long as i can remember. I'm sure i read many of your short term forecasts when you were a student there. My favorite weather page hands down. We were all excited in here last March talking about 2' of snow that was coming from the 3/11-3/12 storm. Even up until about 12-18 hours out there was no or virtually no model that showed the LSV mixing, yet Eric kept going on and on about local climate and how hard it is for this area to get those amounts in March. He insisted the models were wrong and the mix line would end up WAY north and west of where it was portrayed. He was spot on. I had hours of lost accumulations due to sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 23 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Way too many moving parts. But at least two chances to get it done. . That’s Killer B’s for ya. Lots moving and plenty of ways to get stung. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Not sure why and unlike the rest of this season but a bunch of guys i know ( non weather weenies) are really chatting about the "big one" next week. Not sure where they're getting their info. I know 1 guys who went and even refilled his big salt spreader on the back of his truck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 27 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Not sure why and unlike the rest of this season but a bunch of guys i know ( non weather weenies) are really chatting about the "big one" next week. Not sure where they're getting their info. I know 1 guys who went and even refilled his big salt spreader on the back of his truck. easy to like/copy/paste or retweet....thats my guess. I just talked to a snowmobile bud and he's following some guy on FBook. Said that he's having fun cause after a long friendship w/ me he's "learning the lingo". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 I've been following the MU site for as long as i can remember. I'm sure i read many of your short term forecasts when you were a student there. My favorite weather page hands down. We were all excited in here last March talking about 2' of snow that was coming from the 3/11-3/12 storm. Even up until about 12-18 hours out there was no or virtually no model that showed the LSV mixing, yet Eric kept going on and on about local climate and how hard it is for this area to get those amounts in March. He insisted the models were wrong and the mix line would end up WAY north and west of where it was portrayed. He was spot on. I had hours of lost accumulations due to sleet and freezing rain. The primary went too far north and those prolonged SE winds (with little CAD support) were a big concern for Lancaster County. And turned out to be the big issue. Even in January or February we could have changed over to sleet. Heck, I had 5 hours of sleet in 2003 (PD2) while MDT was reporting pillows, and still wound up with 2’. Harrisburg has better in-situ CAD than further East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 I've been following the MU site for as long as i can remember. I'm sure i read many of your short term forecasts when you were a student there. My favorite weather page hands down. We were all excited in here last March talking about 2' of snow that was coming from the 3/11-3/12 storm. Even up until about 12-18 hours out there was no or virtually no model that showed the LSV mixing, yet Eric kept going on and on about local climate and how hard it is for this area to get those amounts in March. He insisted the models were wrong and the mix line would end up WAY north and west of where it was portrayed. He was spot on. I had hours of lost accumulations due to sleet and freezing rain. The MU weather page will forever be bookmarked on my computer. I learned so much from Eric and he’s a great person in general. Easily one of the best forecasters I’ve ever seen and learned from. He knows his PA weather like no one else. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Much to Voyager's chagrin? I'm panicking and I'm still sitting in Tulare, CA. I'm trying to figure the best way to get to Frackville with least impact. I'll get back into PA sometime on Tuesday, so right now do I run 80 to Hazleton and 81 south, or do I run the Pike to Carlise and 81 north??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 36 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The MU weather page will forever be bookmarked on my computer. I learned so much from Eric and he’s a great person in general. Easily one of the best forecasters I’ve ever seen and learned from. He knows his PA weather like no one else. . Although I some times "hate" him for what he says....it really is hard to argue with what he puts out, and his verification score has to be pretty close to the top of the met pile. Will be anxious to see the evolution over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Horst update: "The storm track is a bit uncertain (as of Friday morning) but I expect a track over us or just to our south...which means wet snow for for central and northern PA and a rain-snow mix across the southern counties. It's way too early to talk accumulations, but higher terrain locations could certainly get some measurable snowfall, especially under the cover of darkness Tuesday night." So it certainly appears he's favoring a storm track much farther north than models are currently showing. Something's gonna give...cause Horst doesn't sound that enthused even for our area, yet right now the peeps are getting all excited down in the DC/MD area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Horst update: "The storm track is a bit uncertain (as of Friday morning) but I expect a track over us or just to our south...which means wet snow for for central and northern PA and a rain-snow mix across the southern counties. It's way too early to talk accumulations, but higher terrain locations could certainly get some measurable snowfall, especially under the cover of darkness Tuesday night." So it certainly appears he's favoring a storm track much farther north than models are currently showing. Something's gonna give...cause Horst doesn't sound that enthused even for our area, yet right now the peeps are getting all excited down in the DC/MD area. He's gotta be thinking the inevitable "north shift" is in play. NWS has southern locals still in the goods. Yep, someones gonna cave. With all due respect Mr. Horst.....Please be wrong....I promise to forgive you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 I hate wind. It's been like non-stop windy here for a month now. I fear that storm is more a PA/NY border storm than a PA/MD border storm. I'm not smart but I don't see much in the way of keeping it from pushing north, north, north unlike last week's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 23 minutes ago, pasnownut said: He's gotta be thinking the inevitable "north shift" is in play. NWS has southern locals still in the goods. Yep, someones gonna cave. With all due respect Mr. Horst.....Please be wrong....I promise to forgive you. I'm not going to get my expectations up until he changes his tune. He obviously sees something that the models aren't picking up on right now, or he is simply being super cautious. Which in and of itself is probably smart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Well if it does push north, perhaps the Pike may be the way to go. Fly in the ointment would be the Laurels. I have until Monday to figure it out I guess. Monday I should be in Columbus and from there I can head up to Youngstown to 80, or continue on 70 toward Wheeling and New Stanton. God my head is spinning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, canderson said: I hate wind. It's been like non-stop windy here for a month now. I fear that storm is more a PA/NY border storm than a PA/MD border storm. I'm not smart but I don't see much in the way of keeping it from pushing north, north, north unlike last week's event. I thought of that...watch Mr. Williamsport end up with 2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, canderson said: I hate wind. It's been like non-stop windy here for a month now. I fear that storm is more a PA/NY border storm than a PA/MD border storm. I'm not smart but I don't see much in the way of keeping it from pushing north, north, north unlike last week's event. i said the exact same thing yesterday. It seems non stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 I hate wind. It's been like non-stop windy here for a month now. I fear that storm is more a PA/NY border storm than a PA/MD border storm. I'm not smart but I don't see much in the way of keeping it from pushing north, north, north unlike last week's event. Confluence to the north is key. Better confluence signature means system can stay further south. Weak confluence with departing 50/50 means, “Go north my friend”. Round 2 is up in the air, but that’s one way to go from meh to Oh really quick . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 15 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: I thought of that...watch Mr. Williamsport end up with 2'. still will be upset cause of lack of road stickage.... March sun angles n all that edit: just bustin ya wmspt dude cause itll likely happen for you anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 GFS is a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Just now, paweather said: GFS is a huge hit. You beat me bud. IF this were to verify, there would be many naked snow angels being made on Wednesday. the ull seems to have a different evolution and instead of spinning, it pops coastal LP#2 to follow up coastal #1. not likely imo, but I'd think a stall is more likely what this would evolve as. I'm digging this run even if i taint in round 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Just now, pasnownut said: You beat me bud. IF this were to verify, there would be many naked snow angels being made on Wednesday. the ull seems to have a different evolution and instead of spinning, it pops coastal LP#2 to follow up coastal #1. not likely imo, but I'd think a stall is more likely what this would evolve as. I'm digging this run even if i taint in round 1 CMC is rolling we will see what that says. I like it, it came a little further north but not too north for liquid versus frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 The problem is this may come in two pieces. First one definitely has thermal issues and north of pike (or PA/NY) border is favored. The second more energetic piece would deliver the goods.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 19 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Confluence to the north is key. Better confluence signature means system can stay further south. Weak confluence with departing 50/50 means, “Go north my friend”. Round 2 is up in the air, but that’s one way to go from meh to Oh really quick . Ah, that makes sense - well here's to confluence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 closer view for the visually impaired....or lovers of weather porn. While I'm not getting suckered in yet, it still is so so nice to look at the perty colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: The problem is this may come in two pieces. First one definitely has thermal issues and north of pike (or PA/NY) border is favored. The second more energetic piece would deliver the goods. . yep. Pray for earlier transfer and were all good in the hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Kuchera barely worse than 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, canderson said: Ah, that makes sense - well here's to confluence! and at 500 this is not a bad look whatsoever. we also have a 1028hp that is better placed to help up in northern quebec. That would aid in keeping storm from gaining much latitude and keep midlevels cold enough. We need next few runs to show earlier transfer, and the LSV is in the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 This run now makes 3 in a row with 12+ for MDT. Also, look over at that 19.2" in north Jersey. That's the same area that got 20" last week. My sister still lives there and it's where I lived for the first 41 years of my life. That would make 20/20 which would be very appropriate considering my profession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 and then the CMC goes south LOL, these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 27 minutes ago, paweather said: and then the CMC goes south LOL, these models. actually it didnt. you need to toggle from 0z to 12z through all panels. That run is closer to epic than fail. 500 also lookes moderately fantastic. Doesnt close off but shows a slow progression once the transfer takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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