Central PA - March 2018

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I guess I should know that one......

but I AM too young for that one!  Lol

Most of Lanco received between 20"-30" but there was a report of 50" in Morgantown. Not Morgantown WV either...the one just to your northeast. 50" freaking inches. 

[pasnownut]

19 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Most of Lanco received between 20"-30" but there was a report of 50" in Morgantown. Not Morgantown WV either...the one just to your northeast. 50" freaking inches. 

Oohhh........thaaat one.....!!

50”.....could any of us freakin imagine?

i hope it’s #1 analog.  Hehe

[sauss06]

i'm not sure i was even a gleam in my daddies eye then. 

I'm also not sure i have ever heard to many details either

[pasnownut]

25 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

i'm not sure i was even a gleam in my daddies eye then. 

I'm also not sure i have ever heard to many details either

Now tgat he suggested that analog I remeber seeing paper clippings about Morgantown and how they were crippled for days. 

[pasnownut]

3 hours ago, anotherman said:

These snow showers might be interesting today.

Nice call. They made it over the hills

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

Euro looks...interesting. Especially for southern PA. 

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Euro looks...interesting. Especially for southern PA. 

anybody have Euro precip maps? Per MA forum it is a crush job don't know how far north it comes. 

[CoraopolisWx]

1 hour ago, paweather said:

anybody have Euro precip maps? Per MA forum it is a crush job don't know how far north it comes. 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/west-virginia/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180322-1800z.html

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/west-virginia/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180322-1800z.html

Thanks. Right on the edge GPS was further north like where we are and if I have to chase it won't be far. :-) 

[MAG5035]

The Euro had kind of a weird 2 part solution. The primary event/low pressure that had the excessive QPF in the MA region (up thru 144 hr) was a fringe job at best for our region, getting maybe a couple of our folks near the mason-dixon with some snowfall. It then pops some kind of a second surface low back with the upper level low that then puts a precip shield across more of PA with light-moderate snows  which makes the snow map look a bit better for PA. It's kind of a convoluted, low likelihood outcome IMO.. although blocking regimes deliver weird stuff. The big thing I take from the Euro is the primary event.. which aligns somewhat more with the Canadian but is further south with heavy snow axis. Heavy snow axis on Canadian is essentially the Mason Dixon line with significant snows getting only up to the turnpike or so. Pretty tight corridor of heavy snows. 

 

[pasnownut]

18zs GFS still showing a similar Miller B (albeit wonky..and unlikely evolution as the secondary sits off the coast and does a double loop retrograde in 36 hours ) but hey....I'm in.

[Blizzard of 93]

Most of the models today put the southern half of PA in the game for a snowstorm next week.

I like where we stand with the bullseye for snow averaging out to near the PA-MD line on most models today.

We are around 4 to 5 days out, so hopefully this will finally be the storm this month to put us in the jackpot zone !

[paweather]

0z GFS is back for LSV 18z was a hiccup 

[Voyager]

The timing of this ****er couldn't be worse with me having a 9:00am delivery appointment in Frackville on Wednesday morning. There appears to be no way around it either. 70, 76, 80, and 81 all impacted... 

[Santa Clause]

Kick in b@lls for State College peeps...march favors them and still too far south. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The GFS & Euro tonight delivered around a foot of snow with the storm next week to the LSV !

Their tracks are similar & things are trending in our favor so far with this storm!

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The GFS & Euro tonight delivered around a foot of snow with the storm next week to the LSV !

Their tracks are similar & things are trending in our favor so far with this storm!

We've been burnt so many times this winter that it's in my head that this is going to fail as well, but I'm a positive, upbeat person so saying that...

There are a handful of reasons to think that this setup truly is different. There are a lot of mets who think this could be the one. But there's also a lot of moving parts and much can still go wrong. 

All we can do right now is watch and wait...

[sauss06]

1 hour ago, maytownpawx said:

We've been burnt so many times this winter that it's in my head that this is going to fail as well, but I'm a positive, upbeat person so saying that...

There are a handful of reasons to think that this setup truly is different. There are a lot of mets who think this could be the one. But there's also a lot of moving parts and much can still go wrong. 

All we can do right now is watch and wait...pray and drink heavily 

fixed it for ya 

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

I think we are in a good spot in CTP for this one this time...

6z GFS shifted north compared to 0z, but it still delivered 6-12 inches of snow just north of the PA-MD line . 

Right now we are in the zone that can afford wobbles north or south. The problem with the last few storms is that we were on the edges of the good stuff & got burnt.

maybe this is our time !?!?!

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, sauss06 said:

fixed it for ya 

 

 

It's been a drink-worthy winter to be sure. I'd love to get a double-digit snow next week to quiet the naysayers who all quit and said it's over. 

 

[Superstorm]

I’ll be in Buffalo next week but let’s bring this one home. I’ll be rooting for you. We always seem to do well with these “around Saint patties day” snowstorms.


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[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

We've been burnt so many times this winter that it's in my head that this is going to fail as well, but I'm a positive, upbeat person so saying that...

There are a handful of reasons to think that this setup truly is different. There are a lot of mets who think this could be the one. But there's also a lot of moving parts and much can still go wrong. 

All we can do right now is watch and wait...

Ridin r till the end pal.....;)

maybe momma nature saw my tears.  Lol

havent looked at overnights but sounds good by me. Will check in later. Busy day.

Bring it home for us gang. We all deserve this. 

[anotherman]

[anotherman]

[MillvilleWx]

Well, looks like the LSV will have something to keep an eye on for next week with our big bowling ball heading east and becoming a 2 part system with opportunity for wintry precip (Much to @Voyager chagrin). In order to a see flush hit for the area, we need the storm to gain enough latitude for the secondary to stall off the coast of OCMD to put the LSV within the CCB once round 2 begins. Round 1 will be a case of WAA precip moving up from the south into the MA which is pretty simple to score with for the southern half of the sub-forum. The problem is, despite its simplicity, we need to hope the thermal environment is on the right side of 0C to allow for the bulk or all the precip to be snow. It's a pretty marginal setup and in March no less, that can spell trouble. Fortunately, models are printing some serious QPF to work with, which is a good way to have rates overcome the marginal setup with evap cooling to at least keep the profile isothermal over the southern tier. The further north you go, say northern York/Lancaster/Berks/etc, it'll be easier for the column to remain cold enough for snow, but you need the precip. Any low pressure progression will inevitably hit a wall due to the confluence over the NE caused by the 50/50 over Newfoundland. So, in order to max out on snow potential, we need the upper level progression to remain far enough south to keep the area cold as a strong upper low into the OH Valley would undoubtedly wreck the thermal environment prior to the precip reaching the area, causing a setup like the GFS where sleet would be more common than snow until the upper low moves eastward and intensifies, pulling in cold air and changing the precip back to snow. The sub will want the low to track to southern WV with the upper level energy to cross overhead, or do what the ICON did and close off H5 in Southern Indiana, just far enough south to bring the slug of precip into the area with the primary anchored in Kentucky. 

For part two, we want the H5 to the west to barrel east with a strengthening vort moving over top of WV/MD with H7 passage around the same locale. If that were to verify, our secondary should develop near OBX and motion off the coast of OCMD, the perfect spot to keep the CCB over MD, eventually moving north into the LSV ala Euro. That's how we can take care of both parts. What could go wrong? Lots!!! Thermal environment is too marginal and on the side of warm and it rains or sleets. Our primary moves into Northern WV or Ohio, leading to warmer boundary layer and stronger LLJ forcing warmer air to intrude overhead. Upper low is messy and secondary takes too long to develop. Upper low does develop, but closes off too far to the east with areas like Eastern PA to NJ getting the goods once again. It's a delicate matter, but we can certainly score here. You guys have latitude in your favor unlike my area to the south. That could come in handy. 

[pasnownut]

Just now, anotherman said:

Dude that’s pure porn. We are one or two wiggles away from heaven there.  

[Itstrainingtime]

57 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Well, looks like the LSV will have something to keep an eye on for next week with our big bowling ball heading east and becoming a 2 part system with opportunity for wintry precip (Much to @Voyager chagrin). In order to a see flush hit for the area, we need the storm to gain enough latitude for the secondary to stall off the coast of OCMD to put the LSV within the CCB once round 2 begins. Round 1 will be a case of WAA precip moving up from the south into the MA which is pretty simple to score with for the southern half of the sub-forum. The problem is, despite its simplicity, we need to hope the thermal environment is on the right side of 0C to allow for the bulk or all the precip to be snow. It's a pretty marginal setup and in March no less, that can spell trouble. Fortunately, models are printing some serious QPF to work with, which is a good way to have rates overcome the marginal setup with evap cooling to at least keep the profile isothermal over the southern tier. The further north you go, say northern York/Lancaster/Berks/etc, it'll be easier for the column to remain cold enough for snow, but you need the precip. Any low pressure progression will inevitably hit a wall due to the confluence over the NE caused by the 50/50 over Newfoundland. So, in order to max out on snow potential, we need the upper level progression to remain far enough south to keep the area cold as a strong upper low into the OH Valley would undoubtedly wreck the thermal environment prior to the precip reaching the area, causing a setup like the GFS where sleet would be more common than snow until the upper low moves eastward and intensifies, pulling in cold air and changing the precip back to snow. The sub will want the low to track to southern WV with the upper level energy to cross overhead, or do what the ICON did and close off H5 in Southern Indiana, just far enough south to bring the slug of precip into the area with the primary anchored in Kentucky. 

For part two, we want the H5 to the west to barrel east with a strengthening vort moving over top of WV/MD with H7 passage around the same locale. If that were to verify, our secondary should develop near OBX and motion off the coast of OCMD, the perfect spot to keep the CCB over MD, eventually moving north into the LSV ala Euro. That's how we can take care of both parts. What could go wrong? Lots!!! Thermal environment is too marginal and on the side of warm and it rains or sleets. Our primary moves into Northern WV or Ohio, leading to warmer boundary layer and stronger LLJ forcing warmer air to intrude overhead. Upper low is messy and secondary takes too long to develop. Upper low does develop, but closes off too far to the east with areas like Eastern PA to NJ getting the goods once again. It's a delicate matter, but we can certainly score here. You guys have latitude in your favor unlike my area to the south. That could come in handy. 

Thanks for the excellent write up! Eric Horst still seems concerned about temperatures this morning, as he's calling for a 2-day mix of rain/snow for Lanco. 

[Superstorm]

Thanks for the excellent write up! Eric Horst still seems concerned about temperatures this morning, as he's calling for a 2-day mix of rain/snow for Lanco. 

Way too many moving parts. But at least two chances to get it done.


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[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Superstorm said:

Way too many moving parts. But at least two chances to get it done.


.

Agreed, I mentioned the all the moving pieces yesterday. Exciting this about this setup is if things line up right this has big dog potential. 

[MillvilleWx]

Thanks for the excellent write up! Eric Horst still seems concerned about temperatures this morning, as he's calling for a 2-day mix of rain/snow for Lanco. 

He’s got a lot of reason to be concerned. That’s exactly what my forecast would be at this lead. I’m a student of his. Cut from a similar cloth and style of forecasting. I’ll be a little more aggressive with calls, but his clientele base is the public, so tough to go all out.


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