Festus Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Don't want to hoist the bust flag quite yet but certainly not looking good around these parts. Curious as to what you guys think is the main culprit when such a dramatic shift happens so close to game time. Inadequate atmospheric sampling (need more balloons!), mathematics used do not capture the true essence of the dynamics involved, not enough computer power to adequately resolve solutions, etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 This might be the most painful map I've seen yet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Huh I knew it was bust potential but waking up to just the look of wet pavement outside is...disappointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 This might be the most painful map I've seen yet:45 minute drive and your sitting in 18” of snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Although I still think we do get in the heavier band.Lots of grapple near Willow Street on my drive to work. Nice winters scene.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Southern Lancaster County...2” to 3”.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 51 minutes ago, Festus said: Don't want to hoist the bust flag quite yet but certainly not looking good around these parts. Curious as to what you guys think is the main culprit when such a dramatic shift happens so close to game time. Inadequate atmospheric sampling (need more balloons!), mathematics used do not capture the true essence of the dynamics involved, not enough computer power to adequately resolve solutions, etc.? Well they done a weather recon flight. How often do the do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Steady Light snow is picking up in Marysville as the moisture backs further in to the LSV. It has been a long time since I have seen such a dramatic last minute shift in a storm like this. Late December of 2000 right before New Years comes to mind when I think they were calling for 6-10 inches & we woke up to sunny skies as the storm missed east by 100 miles. But that was before all of the enhanced short range models that we have now. CTP still has not adjusted their warnings at this time. Maybe we can Salvage a couple of inches near Harrisburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 CTP discussion calls a bust. How bitterly disappointing ” Overall, snow forecast is in a state of limbo in sharp west-east gradient zone between US-15/I-83 and the eastern edge of CTP CWA.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Downgraded Harrisburg to 1 to 3Lancaster to 3 to 7.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Festus said: Don't want to hoist the bust flag quite yet but certainly not looking good around these parts. Curious as to what you guys think is the main culprit when such a dramatic shift happens so close to game time. Inadequate atmospheric sampling (need more balloons!), mathematics used do not capture the true essence of the dynamics involved, not enough computer power to adequately resolve solutions, etc.? That my friend is a fantastic question...... One that is bouncin around between my ears right now. I expected a shift east between 18z/0z's but thought that would be it. This one burns.....bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Downgraded Harrisburg to 1 to 3 Lancaster to 3 to 7. . 3 west 7 east IF were lucky IMO. This lull during the transfer was well modelled, but the last minute shift has me rattled. Gotta figure out what i missed in my amateur wx weenie playbook that I've written in 30+ years of playin this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: 3 west 7 east IF were lucky IMO. This lull during the transfer was well modelled, but the last minute shift has me rattled. Gotta figure out what i missed in my amateur wx weenie playbook that I've written in 30+ years of playin this game. You were far from alone. Every met called for a storm, they all were wrong back this way. Likewise the cities were late yesterday ultimately expecting more rain than snow and now get to deal with a monster last second snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Updated from Erik Horst. Just hope we get into the heavy band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 NYC has to be luckiest place ever for big snows...given climo. Surprised Jm didnt stop in to tell us how bad it sucks to be us and we should all know better lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, maytownpawx said: This might be the most painful map I've seen yet: If models can't get it right to the last minute(when the storm is right upon us) what good are they! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, canderson said: You were far from alone. Every met called for a storm, they all were wrong back this way. Likewise the cities were late yesterday ultimately expecting more rain than snow and now get to deal with a monster last second snowstorm. once the bitterness fades, I'll go back to my cave and lick my wounds for the next battle (which monday has shifted N a bit). I've got one more hunt in me until I retire for the year. This is draining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Anduril said: Huh I knew it was bust potential but waking up to just the look of wet pavement outside is...disappointing i went to bed it was snowing, then got up 230 then 4 to see if i needed to come plow/shovel it grass was white, roads wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 This sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I agree...it sure is frustrating. And I really wasn't to much in the game. Currently snow flurries here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I'll just add that I honestly expected close to 12" specific to where I lived. But in the back of my mind, and I told my wife last night...it's a Miller B and with that I was nervous. She responded that she didn't know that Miller came out with a new beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: once the bitterness fades, I'll go back to my cave and lick my wounds for the next battle (which monday has shifted N a bit). I've got one more hunt in me until I retire for the year. This is draining. I'm already starting to will that baby north. At the very least there's something to occupy my time while recovering from this loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, maytownpawx said: I'll just add that I honestly expected close to 12" specific to where I lived. But in the back of my mind, and I told my wife last night...it's a Miller B and with that I was nervous. She responded that she didn't know that Miller came out with a new beer. i referenced them as "killer B's" yesterday, and that has been a personal name for them to me. for obvious reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, maytownpawx said: I'm already starting to will that baby north. At the very least there's something to occupy my time while recovering from this loss. well at least I wont be alone, cause between this board, and my snow hound friends constant texts of depression.....the boat has "floaters" all around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 There have only been a handful of good TRUE Miller Bs (not hybrids). Christmas 2002 the last I remember for central PA.They are tricky and if they don’t come together or move to Far East, we will do poorly.I’m still confident on that ULL making this thing go boom and send accumulating snow westward. We shall see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Punting on today, the weekend storm needs to come north right? Are dynamics in play to allow it or will it remain squashed? That very well might be last legit storm chance we have. What a terrible winter, really, outside the early January week of cold. Tons of moisture, nearly all rain. 5” of rain! in February basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, canderson said: Punting on today, the weekend storm needs to come north right? Are dympnamocs in play to allow it or will it remain squashed? That very well might be last legit storm chance we have. What a terrible winter, really, outsude the early Januarway week of cold. We need phasing to bring this weekend's storm north. Without that the southern stream remains separate and will scoot south of us. I agree about winter. When you think about it, we've had about 20 days of winter weather. 2 weeks of very cold weather and the days on which it snowed. Other than that it's been above normal temps and above normal rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: We need phasing to bring this weekend's storm north. Without that the southern stream remains separate and will scoot south of us. I agree about winter. When you think about it, we've had about 20 days of winter weather. 2 weeks of very cold weather and the days on which it snowed. Other than that it's been above normal temps and above normal rainfall. You didn’t enjoy the 4-5” rain in February? ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, canderson said: You didn’t enjoy the 4-5” rain in February? ) You know, a lot of times when it rains in February, snow is close by. We might get rain but at least wintry weather isn't far away. This year it rained and snow wasn't even close to us. It just didn't feel like winter. My February highlight is easy - Saturday February 17th I received 5.5" of snow in about 3 hours. That was cool. And that was about it for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Looks like snow is picking up in Lancaster....Meanwhile at my office in northeast, MD....light rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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