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Central PA - March 2018


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Don't want to hoist the bust flag quite yet but certainly not looking good around these parts.  Curious as to what you guys think is the main culprit when such a dramatic shift happens so close to game time.  Inadequate atmospheric sampling (need more balloons!), mathematics used do not capture the true essence of the dynamics involved, not enough computer power to adequately resolve solutions, etc.?  

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51 minutes ago, Festus said:

Don't want to hoist the bust flag quite yet but certainly not looking good around these parts.  Curious as to what you guys think is the main culprit when such a dramatic shift happens so close to game time.  Inadequate atmospheric sampling (need more balloons!), mathematics used do not capture the true essence of the dynamics involved, not enough computer power to adequately resolve solutions, etc.?  

Well they done a weather recon flight. How often do the do that?

 

image.jpg

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Steady Light snow is picking up in Marysville as the moisture backs further in to the LSV.

It has been a long time since I have seen such a dramatic last minute shift in a storm like this. Late December of 2000 right before New Years comes to mind when I think they were calling for 6-10 inches & we woke up to sunny skies as the storm missed east by 100 miles. But that was before all of the enhanced short range models that we have now.

CTP still has not adjusted their warnings at this time. Maybe we can Salvage a couple of inches near Harrisburg?

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1 hour ago, Festus said:

Don't want to hoist the bust flag quite yet but certainly not looking good around these parts.  Curious as to what you guys think is the main culprit when such a dramatic shift happens so close to game time.  Inadequate atmospheric sampling (need more balloons!), mathematics used do not capture the true essence of the dynamics involved, not enough computer power to adequately resolve solutions, etc.?  

That my friend is a fantastic question......

One that is bouncin around between my ears right now.  I expected a shift east between 18z/0z's but thought that would be it. 

This one burns.....bad.  

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4 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Downgraded Harrisburg to 1 to 3

Lancaster to 3 to 7.


.

3 west

7 east

IF were lucky IMO.  This lull during the transfer was well modelled, but the last minute shift has me rattled.  Gotta figure out what i missed in my amateur wx weenie playbook that I've written in 30+ years of playin this game.

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

3 west

7 east

IF were lucky IMO.  This lull during the transfer was well modelled, but the last minute shift has me rattled.  Gotta figure out what i missed in my amateur wx weenie playbook that I've written in 30+ years of playin this game.

You were far from alone. Every met called for a storm, they all were wrong back this way. 

 

Likewise the cities were late yesterday ultimately expecting more rain than snow and now get to deal with a monster last second snowstorm. 

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2 minutes ago, canderson said:

You were far from alone. Every met called for a storm, they all were wrong back this way. 

 

Likewise the cities were late yesterday ultimately expecting more rain than snow and now get to deal with a monster last second snowstorm. 

once the bitterness fades, I'll go back to my cave and lick my wounds for the next battle (which monday has shifted N a bit).  I've got one more hunt in me until I retire for the year.  This is draining.

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

once the bitterness fades, I'll go back to my cave and lick my wounds for the next battle (which monday has shifted N a bit).  I've got one more hunt in me until I retire for the year.  This is draining.

I'm already starting to will that baby north. At the very least there's something to occupy my time while recovering from this loss. 

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1 minute ago, maytownpawx said:

I'll just add that I honestly expected close to 12" specific to where I lived.

But in the back of my mind, and I told my wife last night...it's a Miller B and with that I was nervous.

She responded that she didn't know that Miller came out with a new beer. 

i referenced them as "killer B's" yesterday, and that has been a personal name for them to me.  for obvious reasoning.

 

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1 minute ago, maytownpawx said:

I'm already starting to will that baby north. At the very least there's something to occupy my time while recovering from this loss. 

well at least I wont be alone, cause between this board, and my snow hound friends constant texts of depression.....the boat has "floaters" all around it. :(

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There have only been a handful of good TRUE Miller Bs (not hybrids). Christmas 2002 the last I remember for central PA.

They are tricky and if they don’t come together or move to Far East, we will do poorly.

I’m still confident on that ULL making this thing go boom and send accumulating snow westward. We shall see.


.

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Punting on today, the weekend storm needs to come north right? Are dynamics in play to allow it or will it remain squashed? That very well might be last legit storm chance we have. 

What a terrible winter, really, outside the early January week of cold. Tons of moisture, nearly all rain. 5” of rain! in February basically.

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11 minutes ago, canderson said:

Punting on today, the weekend storm needs to come north right? Are dympnamocs in play to allow it or will it remain squashed? That very well might be last legit storm chance we have. 

What a terrible winter, really, outsude the early Januarway week of cold.

We need phasing to bring this weekend's storm north. Without that the southern stream remains separate and will scoot south of us. 

I agree about winter. When you think about it, we've had about 20 days of winter weather. 2 weeks of very cold weather and the days on which it snowed. Other than that it's been above normal temps and above normal rainfall. 

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9 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

We need phasing to bring this weekend's storm north. Without that the southern stream remains separate and will scoot south of us. 

I agree about winter. When you think about it, we've had about 20 days of winter weather. 2 weeks of very cold weather and the days on which it snowed. Other than that it's been above normal temps and above normal rainfall. 

You didn’t enjoy the 4-5” rain in February?  )

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8 minutes ago, canderson said:

You didn’t enjoy the 4-5” rain in February?  )

You know, a lot of times when it rains in February, snow is close by. We might get rain but at least wintry weather isn't far away. This year it rained and snow wasn't even close to us. It just didn't feel like winter.

My February highlight is easy - Saturday February 17th I received 5.5" of snow in about 3 hours. That was cool. And that was about it for the month. 

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