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Central PA - March 2018


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20 minutes ago, canderson said:

Suicide in the MA forum over the NAM. What’s the deal up here - is it so east mdt gets little precip?

It's east but its back to what it has been for the last few 0z runs - which is interesting because 0z runs have been to the east and less for many of us and then the 12z runs have jumped west and have been good

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9 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

It's east but its back to what it has been for the last few 0z runs - which is interesting because 0z runs have been to the east and less for many of us and then the 12z runs have jumped west and have been good

nam.snku_acc.us_ne.trend(3).gif.91490bf6074bf58925e5a1fbbeafc9c2.gif

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While I expected the shift east I thought it would be back towards 12z run. That was a rather large shift east in the 0z NAMs. Not saying it doesn’t happen like that but not sure that it does. We’ve seen several systems over preform further west than modeled this year and  I still think areas just west of river may do alright. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said:

agreed. chips are down, momma nature's roulette wheel is going. time to go to "nowcast" mode.

And it won’t take but 2-3 hours of ripping to get close to hi end advisory low end warn criteria anyway. 

Let er rip!

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Man what a brutal shift in model guidance overnight for the subforum for such short lead time. Pretty much all models have shifted the heavy snow with the coastal east, maybe clipping Lancaster County but basically making this a SE PA into central/northern NJ, eastern NY, etc thing. Most of CTP's warning counties would have trouble verifying advisories much less warnings by the looks of all the overnight stuff. 

Latest near term guidance (HRRR and RAP) doesn't look much better. 

acsnw_t3sfc_f14.thumb.png.7550b0eb4f5ca93e591642abda5ea815.png

Aside from that, the snow band associated with the parent system working west central PA currently and will need to be watched this morning for some issues, especially in the Laurels. 

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15 minutes ago, canderson said:

It’s like 85-90 miles east of modeled - MDT might not see accumulating snow.

I guess on my day off I can do some cold weather yard work ...

Enjoy it, because everybody is going to remember this for the next five years and refuse to take appropriate action when needed, resulting in people's personal safety being put in jeopardy. 

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10 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


Next test could come Monday if that storm moves 75 miles north.


.

It would be a bit...frustrating for sure if we watch NYC get yet another shellacking today and then sit by and watch Richmond get  blitzed with the next one.

Having said that, I'll be much happier for the VA people than I am today for NYC...

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Watching the radar to the south, there is a band of snow developing around the Baltimore metro area that is moving due north as it organizes. Still think we see some accumulations down this way, the problem is at this time of year we need rates during the day. We'll see what happens but I'd be a little surprised if we don't pick up a few slushy inches, particularly on non-paved surfaces. 

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