Blizzard of 93 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 I think this ends up an overall LSV special. Did anyone see the 18z short term extended Canadian High Res that was posted in the Mid Atlantic thread ?!? It had the 30-40 mm QPF over the LSV, which upon checking a quick google calculator to convert, equates to 1.2 to 1.5 inches of Precip, which sounds just like the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 I have the vibe the models are going back to their original ideas north and PA/NJ are in the bullyeyes I remembered last week when it literally snowed on us from Tuesday to Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 On 3/18/2018 at 11:12 PM, paweather said: I have the vibe the models are going back to their original ideas north and PA/NJ are in the bullyeyes I remembered last week when it literally snowed on us from Tuesday to Thursday Expand IF we can time it right the possibility is there. Imagine pulse #1 throwing down a blanket and then long duration snow on top as the coastal pops. Boy if it were only January. I’ll take it nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 On 3/18/2018 at 11:23 PM, pasnownut said: IF we can time it right the possibility is there. Imagine pulse #1 throwing down a blanket and then long duration snow on top as the coastal pops. Boy if it were only January. I’ll take it nonetheless Expand Me too. It’s March it will be gone in a couple of days but a good snowstorm is still a good snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 On 3/18/2018 at 8:38 PM, paweather said: Folks we are back in the game Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 On 3/18/2018 at 11:31 PM, paweather said: Me too. It’s March it will be gone in a couple of days but a good snowstorm is still a good snowstorm Expand Yeah man. Well take what we can get. I will make it for the 0z nams but y’all will hafta bring the overnights home for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 On 3/18/2018 at 11:39 PM, pasnownut said: Yeah man. Well take what we can get. I will make it for the 0z nams but y’all will hafta bring the overnights home for us. Expand Ditto. Up at 4am tomorrow for work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/18/2018 at 11:39 PM, pasnownut said: Yeah man. Well take what we can get. I will make it for the 0z nams but y’all will hafta bring the overnights home for us. Expand Getting to the NAM’s range let’s do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I have a feeling the NAM and GFS are going to nuke the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 1:10 AM, anotherman said: I have a feeling the NAM and GFS are going to nuke the LSV. Expand NAM was close to nuke but GFS still needs some work. GFS looked similar to 3k and Euro IMO. I will likely peek sometime later tonight and see if I will have sweet dreams or nightmares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 0z NAM coming north again edir: sorry way South congrats NC. This is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 2:37 AM, paweather said: 0z NAM coming north again Expand Where are you seeing that? At 60 12k is 50-75 south? Not sure how it ends yet but next few panels will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3k started north early then bumped south as well but only out to 48. Oh the drama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12k is heartbreak city gang. Low pops offshore and we just got UN NAM’d well at least I won’t need to worry about midnight peeky at the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12K NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 NAM gives Norfolk like 18” snow, that’s all anyone needs to know about how terrible it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 2:45 AM, canderson said: NAM gives Norfolk like 18” snow, that’s all anyone needs to know about how terrible it is. Expand 18Z gave us a foot of snow LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 MA weenies suicide warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Ouch. Dat hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 2:46 AM, paweather said: 18Z gave us a foot of snow LOL. Expand And 0z barely a drop of precip it appears! Safe to toss the NAM into the garbage with inconsistencies like that. If Harrisburg gets 3” snow out of this setup I’ll eat my hat tho, it seems too complicated for us at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 1:10 AM, anotherman said: I have a feeling the NAM and GFS are going to nuke the LSV. Every time you think you have the NAM figured out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Look at the little blue nub pointed at my house. NAM just flipped us the weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Baltimore Chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 You just gotta love the 18Z NAM versus 0z for our region. What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 0z GFS please come North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS is listening to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS is still a mess glad I’m not in the MA region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 0z globals were nice for the LSV. The Euro improved again & the UKMET would be a dream come true for snow with a LSV bullseye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Non-storm related: Amazing temperature inversion this morning. i have a 12 mile drive to work. Temp was 27 when i left home, then fluctuated between 25 and 40 on my way in. Cold in the valleys and warm on top of Chickies. But a 15 degree swing is impressive! Storm related: What a nightmare for mets. How in the world do you put out a forecast this morning for tomorrow and Wednesday? Cloudy with a chance of snow and rain i guess. Probably best to leave out amounts and just say that some accumulations are possible? I mean...this could just as easy be nothing at all, a huge deal, or something in between. Beyond just the model discrepancies there's air temps to worry about, rates, sun angle, day versus night, etc. All things considered as of right now i'd be more inclined to believe that this is a <6 event over a >6 event. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 9:30 AM, maytownpawx said: Non-storm related: Amazing temperature inversion this morning. i have a 12 mile drive to work. Temp was 27 when i left home, then fluctuated between 25 and 40 on my way in. Cold in the valleys and warm on top of Chickies. But a 15 degree swing is impressive! Storm related: What a nightmare for mets. How in the world do you put out a forecast this morning for tomorrow and Wednesday? Cloudy with a chance of snow and rain i guess. Probably best to leave out amounts and just say that some accumulations are possible? I mean...this could just as easy be nothing at all, a huge deal, or something in between. Beyond just the model discrepancies there's air temps to worry about, rates, sun angle, day versus night, etc. All things considered as of right now i'd be more inclined to believe that this is a 6 event. We'll see... Agreed, very difficult. I have friends asking me and I am stumped. I told them 3 to 6 when pressed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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