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Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

eyewall

By eyewall,
in New England

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Damn Scott that is rough.  As I told Scott already, I am going to try and calm down during the snow season, my enthusiasm has gotten the worst of me in the past winters.  I am trying to build a business and I need to focus on its success before being excited about snowstorms, there is a tremendous chance I will forget this idea.

:thumbsup:

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Damn Scott that is rough.  As I told Scott already, I am going to try and calm down during the snow season, my enthusiasm has gotten the worst of me in the past winters.  I am trying to build a business and I need to focus on its success before being excited about snowstorms, there is a tremendous chance I will forget this idea.

Best selling novelist, business impresario, and king weenie. What can't you do, man?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I am well prepared for a 12/92 or 12/00 to happen.  12/00 was painful. I went to NJ the day after for a NY party, and it was not right seeing snowfall increase as I went down 95 in CT. I wanted to puke.

Weak El Niño bodes well for E SNE. Hard to find ones that didn't work out there...

2014-2015

2004-2005

1977-1978

1976-1977

1969-1970

1968-1969

1951-1952

 

You could argue 51-52 was kind of a bust for BOS but it was epic for the Cape. Also, the newer update technically puts 79-80 as a weak El Niño (which was an awful year) as well as some bizarre looking 1950s years, but they don't follow the usual progression of enso so those don't look very valid...too reliant on the isolated moving averages. 

But overall, we have a really good shot right now as long as weak Niño stays on track. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weak El Niño bodes well for E SNE. Hard to find ones that didn't work out there...

2014-2015

2004-2005

1977-1978

1976-1977

1969-1970

1968-1969

1951-1952

 

You could argue 51-52 was kind of a bust for BOS but it was epic for the Cape. Also, the newer update technically puts 79-80 as a weak El Niño (which was an awful year) as well as some bizarre looking 1950s years, but they don't follow the usual progression of enso so those don't look very valid...too reliant on the isolated moving averages. 

But overall, we have a really good shot right now as long as weak Niño stays on track. 

Oh I know...I guess I was just reliving my PTSD from those storms.  We'll see how it shakes out this Fall. 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I am well prepared for a 12/92 or 12/00 to happen.  12/00 was painful. I went to NJ the day after for a NY party, and it was not right seeing snowfall increase as I went down 95 in CT. I wanted to puke.

What was wrong with 12/92? 

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weak El Niño bodes well for E SNE. Hard to find ones that didn't work out there...

2014-2015

2004-2005

1977-1978

1976-1977

1969-1970

1968-1969

1951-1952

 

You could argue 51-52 was kind of a bust for BOS but it was epic for the Cape. Also, the newer update technically puts 79-80 as a weak El Niño (which was an awful year) as well as some bizarre looking 1950s years, but they don't follow the usual progression of enso so those don't look very valid...too reliant on the isolated moving averages. 

But overall, we have a really good shot right now as long as weak Niño stays on track. 

All good winters here except 68-69. What is this new update? What years in the 50s were added as weak ninos? 79-80 was meh here too

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, weathafella said:

What was wrong with 12/92? 

Had to start the morning like that? After being in a blizzard warning, forecast of 12-20”, and folks hyping up and telling me how this would be my biggest storm that’s I’ve seen yet, we turned to rain after like 6”.  It was the biggest gut punch I’ve ever had. A few miles NW had over 18”.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Had to start the morning like that? After being in a blizzard warning, forecast of 12-20”, and folks hyping up and telling me how this would be my biggest storm that’s I’ve seen yet, we turned to rain after like 6”.  It was the biggest gut punch I’ve ever had. A few miles NW had over 18”.

So weird.  Boston rained until the next morning but we flipped to snow and got crushed the next day.  Where were you?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, weathafella said:

So weird.  Boston rained until the next morning but we flipped to snow and got crushed the next day.  Where were you?

I was in Brockton. I think part of it was dryslotting. Lost the good lift to help fight off the marine layer. But yeah, a few miles NW got crushed. I was devastated. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, weathafella said:

And you were a young vulnerable weenie....

Coming off horrible winters and listening to my parents boast about their winters growing up.  When I found out about ORH total....I almost downed a package of rat poison. I just wanted to see a 2 footer. I missed it during one of the CJ's of 1994 too.  Just to my east,  Finally got it in Jan 1996. 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

All good winters here except 68-69. What is this new update? What years in the 50s were added as weak ninos? 79-80 was meh here too

68-69 here included Boston's 100-hour storm, which dumped 43" at the nearby long term co-op, and brought snow depth to 84".  79-80 (and the following winter) are the two least snowy of 125 winters at that co-op.  Weak ninos have averaged AN for snow here, but also show the greatest variability of any ENSO condition.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

It's almost like there's really two climate norms to consider ....   

1 ... climate as we know it, which these efforts to predict winter tendencies are centered around the deviance from those norms.. Such as, when we say the winter will be warm, cool, wet ...dry what have you, obviously we mean relative to means for DJF/3 ...if not NDFJM/5.  

2 ... the climate of extreme events, which these efforts to predict winter tendencies ... really can't predict realistically. Short duration very high deviation events can skew a seasonal outlook success.  Alas, ...there's really no way for such specificity, no.. However, can there be a combination of indices that favors a banal winter complexion of events, vs say one where the mean at the end was a bunch of violent scenarios? It is important to remember that means and averages ...hide extremes... and so on. 

The reason I bring this up is because ... it more than seems that increased frequency of greater standard deviation is integrating seasonal results in recent decade(s).

In other words ... (10+10)/2 = 10.  But, so does (20+0)/2 also = 10...  This is true for single season averages and...when comparing multiples of seasons for "seasonality."   Thinkin' 'bout ... 2015 for example. That was like a 20 in this numeric analogy.  Granted, rolled up in a mega, 5 week juggernaut... but, 2012? That was for all intents and purposes a zero.  Some would argue not, because of that Halloween thing ...but, I really don't believe that was part of winter; more like an extreme ..I dunno, 1::300 year freak autumn event. I mean, you talk about an outlier skewing truth - 2012's DJF simply did not sustain winter long enough, beyond the inclusion of that weirdo storm. It's a nice case study for the futility of human conventions in placing seasons inside of designated calendar definitions - it's all an illusion.  

Sparing that murky digression: as we know ... climate is rarely ever a result of climate-occurrences; it's a mean of the extremes, regardless of how minor or extraordinary they are. Sometimes the days are in agreement and their highs and lows and snow...rain... are well-behaved.  Other times, they are not.  It seems more and more ... winters get to climo using the 20 to nothing route ... In an ideal world, there would be a separate category for "probability of extreme events," so to speak..  

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

All good winters here except 68-69. What is this new update? What years in the 50s were added as weak ninos? 79-80 was meh here too

They updated the years to include a 30 year baseline moving average. I wasn't a huge fan of that because the PDO moves with about that periodicy so it makes weak El Niño's easier during -PDO regimes. So you see some goofy weak El Niño's in the 1950s that started in like February or March. Totally not in sync with enso climo. So I tend to stick to the older baseline...but eh, if you look at the progression, you can tell which ones are real and which ones are statistical artifacts. 

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