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Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

eyewall

By eyewall,
in New England

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Posted
Posted
On August 18, 2018 at 10:23 PM, stadiumwave said:

 

Oh, I misunderstood your question. I said in the original post which I put the link in that it is under the "Results" tab in the article:

 

 

I'm not sure why you would need the proof though??? You can look at the SST anomaly composite & clearly see for yourself that it was a CP El Nino.

 

GRl8WN9.png

I get that you can view the chart get a good idea, but I still like to see some sort of metric or reference in a peer reviewed piece that confirms.

That's all.

You are correct about 1995, then.....there are always anomalies, as you pointed out, but be that as it may, I stand by my assertions regarding climo for a weak cp el nino and its implications on placement of max seasonal snowfall anomaly.

Scooter, any idea why the modoki forcing didn't work out that year?

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Posted
Posted
On August 19, 2018 at 11:00 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Regression was 15/16 for EMA?

This is way above my knowledge but I doubt we have stretches like the 80s anytime soon nor as prolonged. Because even if we find ourselves in a crap winter pattern, it’s easier nowadays to sneak in a big system to offset it. Not sure if 11/12 is an ideal proof but something like that....one rogue storm. Maybe some of my thinking is recent bias but until proven otherwise, I’ll stand by it. 

Agreed.

Not to hijack the thread, but I think that is one of the impacts of GW.

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Posted
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On August 19, 2018 at 10:56 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not convinced that we can rely on 18" storms every winter to bail us out. Even as recently as 2008-2009, we hadn't really had a huge spike in them...they had become more frequent since the early 1990s, but nothing ridiculous like the last few years. The 1980s and early 1990s were a nadir, so we had nowhere to go but up, but we've seen pretty prolific periods in the past that reverse (see late 1950s through early 1970s). 

The link to big snowstorms and climate change is a weak one. The literature on it is very limited and so is the physical connection. You have a 7% increase in water vapor with every 1C in temp rise...that doesn't square with the recent massive uptick. We've seen some increases in high latitude blocking, but again, the link is still modest WRT big snowstorms for us and what has actually transpired. There's a lot of natural variability of storminess. We will likely pay the piper soon enough....my guess is when that happens, people will naturally blame something other than natural variability once again. 

I agree with that....I don't think GW accounts for the entire increased frequency in large events, but it is partially responsible.

It's not just about increased water vapor either, though....baroclinic zone is enhanced on average, and we are still trying to wrap our collective minds around the ramifications of the poles warming at a much larger rate relative to the rest of the globe.

Another thing that I will grant you is that the disparity in easing technique accounts for some of it.

Its tough to point to one smoking gun since our understanding of it all is still so limited-

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Posted
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9 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I was contacted to see if I knew of anyone in the weather community in East Boston would be willing to help out. I could only think of on but he is working 3 jobs.

I wish I lived closer....I'd do it for free.

Will, I didn't know that about global warming being mostly relegated to overnight mins....makes me feel better about it :lol:

Jerry, I got porked in Oct 2011, too....like 4.5" in a subsidence screwgie.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Here is how young wives think-“he’s home and I can see him.  If he’s blogging he’s not out with another woman”

 

And then ‘older’ wives think-“we need the hallway painted, the second bedroom for the baby needs the floors redone and the closet organized, the bathroom toilet is running cuz youre always on it with your phone on your nerd weather forums, and I’m hungry can you start the grill?”....

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And then ‘older’ wives think-“we need the hallway painted, the second bedroom for the baby needs the floors redone and the closet organized, the bathroom toilet is running cuz youre always on it with your phone on your nerd weather forums, and I’m hungry can you start the grill?”....

And really old wives say “can’t he at least find a girlfriend?”

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
On 8/21/2018 at 8:38 AM, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think BOS has a full FAA observer. The tower will augment wx obs in obvious cases I've seen, but they don't go the whole nine yards. 

BOS and PHL are the only two major airports I know of who never have SNINCR or 4/### in any of their METARs so there is at least one other airport with a similar issue to Boston 

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted
On 8/22/2018 at 5:36 PM, CoastalWx said:

It’s a first order station and a major hub. It’s certainly important to measure snow and do it accurately. Operations are based on that too.

I popped into this thread for any preliminary winter thoughts. Definitely not ready for snow yet as I love fall, but its the time of year when I start to think about it lol. Since I noticed all these comments about BOS I had to throw my 2 cents in. I follow a lot of climate data. Mostly in my area but i skim other areas also. I've always thought it was weird that BOS didnt do snow depth measurements. But not having a snow observer? That's crazy and it is important for a first order station.  I'm not sure, and you may know more than me, but I don't think the FAA is required to measure snow? And I think some places the FAA guys will do it to be nice but we all know that it's not as accurate as it should be when they do it. A lot of first order sites have separate snow paid observers, including DTW.  If anyone on here is 5 miles or less in any direction from BOS, they may be able to earn a little extra winter cash ;)

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
On 8/24/2018 at 5:47 AM, michsnowfreak said:

I popped into this thread for any preliminary winter thoughts. Definitely not ready for snow yet as I love fall, but its the time of year when I start to think about it lol. Since I noticed all these comments about BOS I had to throw my 2 cents in. I follow a lot of climate data. Mostly in my area but i skim other areas also. I've always thought it was weird that BOS didnt do snow depth measurements. But not having a snow observer? That's crazy and it is important for a first order station.  I'm not sure, and you may know more than me, but I don't think the FAA is required to measure snow? And I think some places the FAA guys will do it to be nice but we all know that it's not as accurate as it should be when they do it. A lot of first order sites have separate snow paid observers, including DTW.  If anyone on here is 5 miles or less in any direction from BOS, they may be able to earn a little extra winter cash ;)

They have a guy in Winthrop literally a stones throw away.  He does snow measurements but doesn’t report depth.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, weathafella said:

They have a guy in Winthrop literally a stones throw away.  He does snow measurements but doesn’t report depth.

Oh, then if he does it, sounds like bos doesn't need a snow observer lol. I think the rule is 5 miles or less in any direction from the observation site. Does not have to be AT the site.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh, then if he does it, sounds like bos doesn't need a snow observer lol. I think the rule is 5 miles or less in any direction from the observation site. Does not have to be AT the site.

It is kind of absurd for a major city site though.   At some point they need to decide how important climo records are.  What happens if the guy doing it decides to stop?  He takes plenty of abuse here...

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
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16 hours ago, weathafella said:

It is kind of absurd for a major city site though.   At some point they need to decide how important climo records are.  What happens if the guy doing it decides to stop?  He takes plenty of abuse here...

I agree 100%. I think the entire setup is absurd. Considering that most of the major climate sites in northern cities started snowfall measurements anywhere between the 1870s and 1890s and this was part of all the weather observation. Now in the technological age when everything else can be automated, those sites run by the FAA just dont bother to worry about the human augmentation aspect, which is needed for snowfall. NWS offices scramble to take care of that problem by hiring snow paids (or in some cases volunteers). And to be honest, the measurments are much more accurate with the snowpaids than when the FAA took over. The FAA took over at DTW in 1995 and they did the snow measurments until i think 2005? when a snowpaid was hired. I talk to one of the retird mets from dtx (hes a good one too) and he told me sometimes the faa would do good but sometimes they would do so awful (sometimes too high but usually too low) that they would basically analyze the obs and estimate the snowfall bc the faa report sounded so off based on obs and nearby reports. There have been a few snowpaids through the years now (i am one of them) and there has never been any issues. I hear that is the case at other places that have snow paids and volunteers as well. I agree its a shame it even had to get to that point. Im sure if something happens to the winthrop guy they would hurry to get someone else. With snowpaids theres something in the contact basically saying if neither party notifies the other (nws telling the observer they are no longer needed or observer quitting) by September they are bound by that contact and expected to report for the coming snow season. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh, then if he does it, sounds like bos doesn't need a snow observer lol. I think the rule is 5 miles or less in any direction from the observation site. Does not have to be AT the site.

He stopped doing it. So right now they do not have anyone. 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I suppose they could use the Boston common guy (think he is there still).  For the most part there aren’t huge differences in most storms. Just the ones that are extremely marginal.

I didn’t know he stopped!  I nominate Jay.

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

Posted
Posted

Damn Scott that is rough.  As I told Scott already, I am going to try and calm down during the snow season, my enthusiasm has gotten the worst of me in the past winters.  I am trying to build a business and I need to focus on its success before being excited about snowstorms, there is a tremendous chance I will forget this idea.

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