Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That more or less shows you what I meant in the earlier posts. You are starting to see an atmospheric response.

Euro would be adjusting by now if it were a head fake.

[stadiumwave]

On 8/16/2018 at 5:31 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1991-1992 was a strong el nino, and 1994-1995 was east-based moderate.

You should have done the research.

You do realize that a positive NAO is hostile for above normal mid atl snowfall, correct?

This has nothing to do with what I WANT to happen....but your assertions are simply not reality based.

When the data supports it, then I will favor the mid atl....just like I did in the outlook that I released 3 months prior to the The Great February 2016 Mid Atl blizzard. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2015/11/winter-outlook-2016-tale-of-two-seasons.html

"As mentioned previously, I expect NewYork City and points south and westward, down the rest of the east coast into the mid atlantic to not only see above average snowfall, but perhaps exceedingly so. They should experience greater positive seasonal snowfall anomalies than observed here in New England". 

"There will absolutely be a storm/blizzard of historic proportions along the east coast this season. Whether it favors the interior, or coast remains to be seen, but someone will have infrastructure paralyzed for a spell of time".

"The last week of January, the first 10 days of February, or the first two weeks of March. Perhaps timing may prove erroneous, but an outright failure of this to occur will be considered an abject failure of the Eastern Mass blog as it relates to this particular outlook".

 

That was a much stronger el nino, so the intense STJ favored miller A cyclogenesis to be prominent that season.

If you would like, I can link you to the outlook in which I predicted the immense E SNE blizzard 2.5 months before it took place, as well as the large seasonal snowfall surplus focused on E SNE...because it was a weak modoki el nino.

I win some and I lose some, but I do not "wishcast".

Please remember that I keep saying this is preliminary. I have my reasons for my thinking but let's see how it's looking when we get closer before getting into all of that. Way too much up in the air right now to be sharing detailed thoughts of the "why" when my preliminary thoughts are based on BIG assumptions at the moment.

1994-1995 was moderate CP Nino. Not sure what you're looking at.

 

 

 

1991-92 was a strong hybrid CP Nino. ONI of 1.7 for DJF. 2009-10 peaked in NDJ with an ONI of 1.6. So barely beating it out. Among many other differences one of the key was the later peak in 1991-92 which seems to often make a winter difference.  Declining NINO's in Jan/Feb usually good. Strengthening not so much

 

 

 

On +NAO & mid-Atlantic snowfall. It all depends on the setup....2014-15 was above average snowfall & a very +NAO winter. 

 

 

Last of all let me say I did not intend to imply I thought you were a wishcaster. I've never thought that & that's not what I mean by my comment.

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

4 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

1994-1995 was moderate CP Nino. Not sure what you're looking at.

 

 

 

1991-92 was a strong hybrid CP Nino. ONI of 1.7 for DJF. 2009-10 peaked in NDJ with an ONI of 1.6. So barely beating it out. Among many other differences one of the key was the later peak in 1991-92 which seems to often make a winter difference.  Declining NINO's in Jan/Feb usually good. Strengthening not so much

 

 

 

On +NAO & mid-Atlantic snowfall. It all depends on the setup....2014-15 was above average snowfall & a very +NAO winter. 

 

The reason 2014-2015 was so snowfall prolific here in SNE was due to the persistent +PNA ridging out west from Alaska down to the west coast of the US.  Also if you look at the 04-05 winter that was very +PNA too.  I think a combination nor'easter is certainly possible this winter, a combo nor'easter of the 05 Blizzard, 15 Blizzard and 18 Jan Blizzard (Grayson).  The intensity of Grayson, the duration and slow crawl of Juno and the severity of 05 Jan Blizzard.  A track from the Cape Hatteras, NC zone of 35N: 75W location to the benchmark whereupon hitting the benchmark the storm explodes down to 950mb and slowly crawls to Nova Scotia, Canada for a full 36 hours, a 36-hour duration snowfall and the bands are the severity of the 05 Blizzard.  That would be the ultimate blizzard we have been waiting for.

[stadiumwave]

43 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The reason 2014-2015 was so snowfall prolific here in SNE was due to the persistent +PNA ridging out west from Alaska down to the west coast of the US.  Also if you look at the 04-05 winter that was very +PNA too.  I think a combination nor'easter is certainly possible this winter, a combo nor'easter of the 05 Blizzard, 15 Blizzard and 18 Jan Blizzard (Grayson).  The intensity of Grayson, the duration and slow crawl of Juno and the severity of 05 Jan Blizzard.  A track from the Cape Hatteras, NC zone of 35N: 75W location to the benchmark whereupon hitting the benchmark the storm explodes down to 950mb and slowly crawls to Nova Scotia, Canada for a full 36 hours, a 36-hour duration snowfall and the bands are the severity of the 05 Blizzard.  That would be the ultimate blizzard we have been waiting for.

 

I don't expect as strong of a ridge as 2014-15....which was insane; however, EPO will be key. PDO might be a worry forvwinter lovers. If it not at least positive some then not as much +PNA & a -NAO will be a necessity.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, stadiumwave said:

 

I don't expect as strong of a ridge as 2014-15....which was insane; however, EPO will be key. PDO might be a worry forvwinter lovers. If it not at least positive some then not as much +PNA & a -NAO will be a necessity.

We shall see

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

Please remember that I keep saying this is preliminary. I have my reasons for my thinking but let's see how it's looking when we get closer before getting into all of that. Way too much up in the air right now to be sharing detailed thoughts of the "why" when my preliminary thoughts are based on BIG assumptions at the moment.

1994-1995 was moderate CP Nino. Not sure what you're looking at.

 

 

 

1991-92 was a strong hybrid CP Nino. ONI of 1.7 for DJF. 2009-10 peaked in NDJ with an ONI of 1.6. So barely beating it out. Among many other differences one of the key was the later peak in 1991-92 which seems to often make a winter difference.  Declining NINO's in Jan/Feb usually good. Strengthening not so much

 

 

 

On +NAO & mid-Atlantic snowfall. It all depends on the setup....2014-15 was above average snowfall & a very +NAO winter. 

 

 

Last of all let me say I did not intend to imply I thought you were a wishcaster. I've never thought that & that's not what I mean by my comment.

 

The point is that the 1995 el nino was neither weak, nor a modoki.

And why are we referencing 1992 when it was strong? ONI can be misleading....MEI is much more disparate. I'll bet Ventrice's index was more different, as well.

I agree that its way too early....everything I am discussing is hypothetical, but I feel good about a weak to perhaps marginally moderate el nino...modiki value TBD.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Additionally, I didn't mean to imply that the mid atl can not have a good winter with a positive NAO...its just more difficult. But my point was that it is exceedingly tough for the mid atl to beat sne during a positive NAO winter....which is what you are "preliminarily" favoring-

2005 and 2015 for E SNE focus.

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I don't expect as strong of a ridge as 2014-15....which was insane; however, EPO will be key. PDO might be a worry forvwinter lovers. If it not at least positive some then not as much +PNA & a -NAO will be a necessity.

I agree with you on the ridge not being as strong as in 14-15.  Considering the state of affairs in the northern hemisphere and with the developing El Nino,  a -NAO is a must for this upcoming winter. 

[nzucker]

On 8/14/2018 at 8:05 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Leaning 02 03 76 77 right now.  

I also like 2006-07 and 1986-1987.

[stadiumwave]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The point is that the 1995 el nino was neither weak, nor a modoki.

And why are we referencing 1992 when it was strong? ONI can be misleading....MEI is much more disparate. I'll bet Ventrice's index was more different, as well.

I agree that its way too early....everything I am discussing is hypothetical, but I feel good about a weak to perhaps marginally moderate el nino...modiki value TBD.

 

1994-95 was a CP Nino (modoki flavor). NOAA classifies it as such & sst's I posted show it as such. It wasn't weak but it was CP. Even in journal literature 94-95 is classified as a Central Pacific Nino or Modoki. Read under "Results" tab:

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep38540

[CoastalWx]

4 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I agree with you on the ridge not being as strong as in 14-15.  Considering the state of affairs in the northern hemisphere and with the developing El Nino,  a -NAO is a must for this upcoming winter. 

I also think you need to consider the steady state of that ridge. It did not budge, which led to prolific and well placed lows for ern SNE and downeast Maine.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The reason 2014-2015 was so snowfall prolific here in SNE was due to the persistent +PNA ridging out west from Alaska down to the west coast of the US.  Also if you look at the 04-05 winter that was very +PNA too.  I think a combination nor'easter is certainly possible this winter, a combo nor'easter of the 05 Blizzard, 15 Blizzard and 18 Jan Blizzard (Grayson).  The intensity of Grayson, the duration and slow crawl of Juno and the severity of 05 Jan Blizzard.  A track from the Cape Hatteras, NC zone of 35N: 75W location to the benchmark whereupon hitting the benchmark the storm explodes down to 950mb and slowly crawls to Nova Scotia, Canada for a full 36 hours, a 36-hour duration snowfall and the bands are the severity of the 05 Blizzard.  That would be the ultimate blizzard we have been waiting for.

  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

We saw the possibilities of a good -nao in march from a storm perspective, but also how it isn’t the end all be all. Most systems lacked a true snowy airmass. Granted it was March but the early April event shows why a great pacific is favored over the atlantic when push comes to shove. Sure, ideally, we want both...but we’ve seen over the past decade that favorable epo/pna lead the way. 

[weathafella]

32 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We saw the possibilities of a good -nao in march from a storm perspective, but also how it isn’t the end all be all. Most systems lacked a true snowy airmass. Granted it was March but the early April event shows why a great pacific is favored over the atlantic when push comes to shove. Sure, ideally, we want both...but we’ve seen over the past decade that favorable epo/pna lead the way. 

Yet many of us more than doubled snow climo last March.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I agree with you on the ridge not being as strong as in 14-15.  Considering the state of affairs in the northern hemisphere and with the developing El Nino,  a -NAO is a must for this upcoming winter. 

In other news, I don't think February 2019 will be as prolific as February 2015 snowfall wise across E SNE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

1994-95 was a CP Nino (modoki flavor). NOAA classifies it as such & sst's I posted show it as such. It wasn't weak but it was CP. Even in journal literature 94-95 is classified as a Central Pacific Nino or Modoki. Read under "Results" tab:

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep38540

Where is 1994-95 mentioned?

Not denying, but I quickly sifted through and didn't see it...

[stadiumwave]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The point is that the 1995 el nino was neither weak, nor a modoki.

And why are we referencing 1992 when it was strong? ONI can be misleading....MEI is much more disparate. I'll bet Ventrice's index was more different, as well.

I agree that its way too early....everything I am discussing is hypothetical, but I feel good about a weak to perhaps marginally moderate el nino...modiki value TBD.

 

[Hoth]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where is 1994-95 mentioned?

Not denying, but i quickly sifted through and didn't see it...

When do you put out your seasonal outlook? September? October?

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I'm not sure why you simply quoted an old post, and did not answer my question.....I saw no mention of 1994-1995 in that article. 

If it is cited as a modiki event in scientific research, then fine...but I don't see it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Hoth said:

When do you put out your seasonal outlook? September? October?

Between 11/12 and 11/16.

[stadiumwave]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure why you simply quoted an old post, and did not answer my question.....I saw no mention of 1994-1995 in that article. 

If it is cited as a modiki event in scientific research, then fine...but I don't see it.

 

Oh, I misunderstood your question. I said in the original post which I put the link in that it is under the "Results" tab in the article:

 

Quote

Because of the weak ability of all the CP indices to capture interannual El Niño, we classify the CP and EP El Niño by comparing the relative magnitudes of the Niño3 and Niño4 indices (Methods). While this method may misrepresent the influence of a mixed type of El Niño, it appears to be effective and has been widely adopted to identify the two types of El Niño^2,5. We first identify CP El Niño events based on five-month running mean SST anomalies during 1950–2013, and then split the selected CP El Niño events into interannual (five months to seven years) and decadal (greater than seven years) components. The results show that, after removing the decadal component, the average strength of the selected CP El Niño events decreases substantially; only in a small area of the central Pacific do the SST anomalies still reach above 0.5 °C (the threshold of El Niño, Fig. 2b). Seven of the selected 16 CP El Niño events during 1950–2013 do not meet the 0.5 °C threshold if the decadal contributions are removed. In addition, we find that the decadal component varies over time. For instance, in the 1994/95 and 2002/03 CP El Niño cases, the decadal SST warming in the central Pacific plays a major role (Supplementary Fig. 3). In particular, the “horse-shoe” pattern of the decadal SST anomalies is reminiscent of the decadal El Niño-like variation or meridional mode^23,24.

 

I'm not sure why you would need the proof though??? You can look at the SST anomaly composite & clearly see for yourself that it was a CP El Nino.

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Good discussion so far. Early indicators look pretty decent, but hard to really lean one way or another in late August. 

Obviously the picture becomes more clear as we head into late September and October.

We are due for some regression down this way, but not sure this is the winter that’s going to happen.

[JBinStoughton]

14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Good discussion so far. Early indicators look pretty decent, but hard to really lean one way or another in late August. 

Obviously the picture becomes more clear as we head into late September and October.

We are due for some regression down this way, but not sure this is the winter that’s going to happen.

Regression?

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

Regression?

Yes. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yes. 

I mean it’s no secret lol. Who knows if it’s this year next year or 30 years from now. We are due for an extended crap period.

[CoastalWx]

29 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I mean it’s no secret lol. Who knows if it’s this year next year or 30 years from now. We are due for an extended crap period.

Could be, or it could be a period where we are just perhaps a little AN during the "snowy" winters...and not getting 80-100". Regression can take many different forms. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Regression was 15/16 for EMA?

This is way above my knowledge but I doubt we have stretches like the 80s anytime soon nor as prolonged. Because even if we find ourselves in a crap winter pattern, it’s easier nowadays to sneak in a big system to offset it. Not sure if 11/12 is an ideal proof but something like that....one rogue storm. Maybe some of my thinking is recent bias but until proven otherwise, I’ll stand by it. 

[weathafella]

11-12 was the weakest snow winter of any in my life in Boston.  Single digits at BOS.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

11-12 was the weakest snow winter of any in my life in Boston.  Single digits at BOS.

Weakest here too since I’ve been in the state but still recieved my largest storm/snowfall past 7 winters. 

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Weakest here too since I’ve been in the state but still recieved my largest storm/snowfall past 7 winters. 

October '11 outdid Jan '11 and Feb '13 in your hood?