Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm a fan of his work....that is not available for public consumption, is it?

I remember you referenced that earlier this summer when some were trying to call faux el nino event again....you cited that in disputing it.

Unfortunately it's his own stuff.  It's just another way of viewing it instead of the legacy SST anomalies. I think some of the faux Nino talk was also from some of the model forecast of SST anomalies. The Euro has had a big warm bias, but this time around the spread was much tighter. Also, the forecasts from previous months, and the actual values that the ensemble members started from...were fairly close. Another words, the Euro seasonal did not exhibit such a month to month warm bias like previous years had. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Unfortunately it's his own stuff.  It's just another way of viewing it instead of the legacy SST anomalies. I think some of the faux Nino talk was also from some of the model forecast of SST anomalies. The Euro has had a big warm bias, but this time around the spread was much tighter. Also, the forecasts from previous months, and the actual values that the ensemble members started from...were fairly close. Another words, the Euro seasonal did not exhibit such a month to month warm bias like previous years had. 

Last season it was already correcting cooler quickly at this point.

Steady as she goes this year-

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Ray, what about the question about the east based storm tracks based on weak El NInos?  Is that still true?

[stadiumwave]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone with even a modicum of knowledge regarding ENSO snowfall climo would perceive these as conflicting assertions.

I agree that el nino will be weaker than 2003 and 2010, which favored the mid atlantic. Weak el nino events favor sne.....NOT further south.

That is wrong.

 

#1 I did say preliminary 

#2 I don't think Climo status quo. Just because there is a weak CP Nino it doesn't necessarily mean it all pans out status quo. For example we've had some warm CP ninos.

 

Other factors besides ENSO...especially a weak event

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Ray, what about the question about the east based storm tracks based on weak El NInos?  Is that still true?

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

All phases stilll have lots of rain for CC MA USA.

[weathafella]

To me the low solar is really tasty when potentially paired with what may emerge from ENSO/EPO/NAO.  We should have a better idea in a month.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

To me the low solar is really tasty when potentially paired with what may emerge from ENSO/EPO/NAO.  We should have a better idea in a month.

The great winters of the 60s featured a low solar period iirc?

[weathafella]

18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The great winters of the 60s featured a low solar period iirc?

I think so but we’ve had great ones with active suns also.  But my understanding is lower solar increases the likelihood of blocking in the NAO region.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I think so but we’ve had great ones with active suns also.  But my understanding is lower solar increases the likelihood of blocking in the NAO region.

Yes that’s my understanding as well. The authors at EasternMass blog do a great job explaining this stuff in their winter outlooks. 

[weathafella]

21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yes that’s my understanding as well. The authors at EasternMass blog do a great job explaining this stuff in their winter outlooks. 

Some great minds over there...

[Great Snow 1717]

JB has posted his winter outlook and once again he is calling for a cold and snowy winter in the east. Although he does seem to be leaning towards a "warm" Dec. I find his temp outlook map for the winter to be suspect.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

I think so but we’ve had great ones with active suns also.  But my understanding is lower solar increases the likelihood of blocking in the NAO region.

I've read plenty regarding the correlation with the AO domain over all - not so much in quadrature/relation to it's subordinate EPO and NAO domain spaces... 

For the general reader .. the AO domain space ...as in the geographical area, extends evenly southward from the north pole in all directions.  

The EPO and NAO (which are crucial for North America's interests..) extend some distance north within the AO domain region ... but also extend much farther south well beyond the terminus of the AO.  

That means that at times the AO can be negative while the other two are concurrently positive, and vice versa...  particularly that can be true when time dependency is applied to the correlation. 

The causal link between low solar is total AO domain consideration ... how those intervals of blocking set up and whether those are in or outside the EPO and/or NAO is a secondary mechanism.  Since the AO does, however, share domain space, it's a probability related matter ... The AO may be in a blocked mode, and offers some favorability that its block happens to coincide with EPO and NAO. 

As far as targeting the NAO during solar minimum ...that may be, but I've never heard of that - it may actually be more precise to think of the blocking phases as a total hemispheric phenomenon, and then it's a (ironically) dice roll where -

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

#1 I did say preliminary 

#2 I don't think Climo status quo. Just because there is a weak CP Nino it doesn't necessarily mean it all pans out status quo. For example we've had some warm CP ninos.

 

Other factors besides ENSO...especially a weak event

#1 You didn't mention the rationale for potentially straying from climo...which at several months lead seems odd.

#2 First of all, name the weak modoki el nino events that featured above avg NE temps...secondly, you shifted the debate. My contention was favored area for max seasonal snowfall surplus, not temps. 2004-2005 may have been a bit mild, but take a look at there max snowfall anomaly was, which is the point. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

Some great minds over there...

We have split personalities....sometimes we warm and wet....sometimes we snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Ray, what about the question about the east based storm tracks based on weak El NInos?  Is that still true?

I answered you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It looks good right now, but I'm not ready to call it during the summer.......hell, I'm not even beginning to scrutinize modoki value until later this month.

I mean, this is akin to the Sox leading in the 3rd inning....can't declare victory...except maybe this season, apparently

But if that were to be the case.....the answer to your question is, yes. The prevalent n stream will increase the likelihood of a relatively large amount of late bloomers, as sometimes it takes the energy a bit longer (especially relative to modeling) to consolidate when the lion's share of dynamics are born of the n jet.

Here, James.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here, James.

Oh, thanks, Ray.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Another thing....if you want to argue weak modoki doesn't have to be cold....but then favor the mid atl for snowfall surplus? Probably not going to work....a mild weak el nino season is very unlikely to favor the mid stl....weak STJ fostering envt. ripe w Miller Bs, not to mention they need negative temp departures to snow. We don't- 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here, James.

Will the storm tracks shift far enough closer to the BM to give the west crew a slim shot of a KU? Just one...?

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Will the storm tracks shift far enough closer to the BM to give the weat of river folks at a slim shot of a KU? Just one...?

When I was just a little boy...I asked scooter what will it be.....will I be shoveling, will it be wet....here’s what he said to me...

que sera sera....whatever will be will be.....the weenie’s not ours to see....what will be will be....

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

When I was just a little boy...I asked scooter what will it be.....will I be shoveling, will it be wet....here’s what he said to me...

que sera sera....whatever will be will be.....the weenie’s not ours to see....what will be will be....

At some point it will be longitude FTL for the coast.

[stadiumwave]

18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

#1 You didn't mention the rationale for potentially straying from climo...which at several months lead seems odd.

#2 First of all, name the weak modoki el nino events that featured above avg NE temps...secondly, you shifted the debate. My contention was favored area for max seasonal snowfall surplus, not temps. 2004-2005 may have been a bit mild, but take a look at there max snowfall anomaly was, which is the point. 

 

1991-1992, 1994-95, 2004-2005 just off the top of my head without research.   Events are unique & not averages. Averages are numerous combined events & through which we get Climo. But it is a mistake just to look at a compilation of multiple Modoki's & suggest that Climo is the expected outcome of this one....if it occurs.  Especially considering I hinted at most snowfall being just south of Climo & it did not suit your wish. That's crazy! 

 

One of the factors is that despite low solar, modoki, &-QBO, the  -NAO may not be dominant. It seems as if the atmosphere with the very, very low heights around Davis Strait & Greenland may be trying to tell us something.  It's still too early to tell but my research suggests that's possible. That's why I think 2014-15 is a good analog. That's the primary reason. Look at cold winters in east without predominant -NAO & where does most of the snowfall. You see larger mid-Atlantic/Coastal Carolina events during those years. 

 

But again....preliminary

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

1991-1992, 1994-95, 2004-2005 just off the top of my head without research.   Events are unique & not averages. Averages are numerous combined events & through which we get Climo. But it is a mistake just to look at a compilation of multiple Modoki's & suggest that Climo is the expected outcome of this one....if it occurs.  Especially considering I hinted at most snowfall being just south of Climo & it did not suit your wish. That's crazy! 

 

One of the factors is that despite low solar, modoki, &-QBO, the  -NAO may not be dominant. It seems as if the atmosphere with the very, very low heights around Hudson Bay & Greenland may be trying to tell us something.  That's why I think 2014-15 is a good analog. That's the primary reason. Look at cold winters in east without predominant -NAO & where does most of the snowfall. You see larger mid-Atlantic/Coastal Carolina events during those years.

2004-05 was a big snow winter up here.  BOS with 200% of climo.

[J Paul Gordon]

11 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

1991-1992, 1994-95, 2004-2005 just off the top of my head without research.   Events are unique & not averages. Averages are numerous combined events & through which we get Climo. But it is a mistake just to look at a compilation of multiple Modoki's & suggest that Climo is the expected outcome of this one....if it occurs.  Especially considering I hinted at most snowfall being just south of Climo & it did not suit your wish. That's crazy! 

 

One of the factors is that despite low solar, modoki, &-QBO, the  -NAO may not be dominant. It seems as if the atmosphere with the very, very low heights around Davis Strait & Greenland may be trying to tell us something.  It's still too early to tell but my research suggests that's possible. That's why I think 2014-15 is a good analog. That's the primary reason. Look at cold winters in east without predominant -NAO & where does most of the snowfall. You see larger mid-Atlantic/Coastal Carolina events during those years. 

 

But again....preliminary

04-05 was a great winter for snow here, and fairly mild except for January.

[MJO812]

The Farmers Almanac says cold and snowy for the northeast while the old farmers almanac says warm and wet lol

[Hoth]

15 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The Farmers Almanac says cold and snowy for the northeast while the old farmers almanac says warm and wet lol

Warm and wet can still mean snowy in the heart of winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

1991-1992, 1994-95, 2004-2005 just off the top of my head without research.   Events are unique & not averages. Averages are numerous combined events & through which we get Climo. But it is a mistake just to look at a compilation of multiple Modoki's & suggest that Climo is the expected outcome of this one....if it occurs.  Especially considering I hinted at most snowfall being just south of Climo & it did not suit your wish. That's crazy! 

 

One of the factors is that despite low solar, modoki, &-QBO, the  -NAO may not be dominant. It seems as if the atmosphere with the very, very low heights around Davis Strait & Greenland may be trying to tell us something.  It's still too early to tell but my research suggests that's possible. That's why I think 2014-15 is a good analog. That's the primary reason. Look at cold winters in east without predominant -NAO & where does most of the snowfall. You see larger mid-Atlantic/Coastal Carolina events during those years. 

 

But again....preliminary

1991-1992 was a strong el nino, and 1994-1995 was east-based moderate.

You should have done the research.

You do realize that a positive NAO is hostile for above normal mid atl snowfall, correct?

This has nothing to do with what I WANT to happen....but your assertions are simply not reality based.

When the data supports it, then I will favor the mid atl....just like I did in the outlook that I released 3 months prior to the The Great February 2016 Mid Atl blizzard. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2015/11/winter-outlook-2016-tale-of-two-seasons.html

"As mentioned previously, I expect NewYork City and points south and westward, down the rest of the east coast into the mid atlantic to not only see above average snowfall, but perhaps exceedingly so. They should experience greater positive seasonal snowfall anomalies than observed here in New England". 

"There will absolutely be a storm/blizzard of historic proportions along the east coast this season. Whether it favors the interior, or coast remains to be seen, but someone will have infrastructure paralyzed for a spell of time".

"The last week of January, the first 10 days of February, or the first two weeks of March. Perhaps timing may prove erroneous, but an outright failure of this to occur will be considered an abject failure of the Eastern Mass blog as it relates to this particular outlook".

 

That was a much stronger el nino, so the intense STJ favored miller A cyclogenesis to be prominent that season.

If you would like, I can link you to the outlook in which I predicted the immense E SNE blizzard 2.5 months before it took place, as well as the large seasonal snowfall surplus focused on E SNE...because it was a weak modoki el nino.

I win some and I lose some, but I do not "wishcast".

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, SimeonNC said:

I feel like this might be relevant to the discussion of the ENSO.

 

Yea, I mentioned Ventrice's indicator as support for why this el nino won't fizzle like last season.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I mentioned Ventrice's indicator as support for why this el nino won't fizzle like last season.

That more or less shows you what I meant in the earlier posts. You are starting to see an atmospheric response.