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Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019


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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm in the mountains of NE PA for the weekend and my pond froze over (only at the top though) and we had our first snowflakes of the season Friday and Saturday with snow squalls that coated everything with the sky only partly cloudy lol.

Wow 2013-14 for you was like 1995-96 for us and February 2015 was one of the coldest months on record for pretty much all of us.  Similar to February 1934 for here, except no -15 lows lol.

It feels like Winter. The wet snow Friday melted in the afternoon due to the warm ground but it fell to the low 20s Friday night with wind chills in the single digits so there were plenty of frozen puddles the next day along with another light dusting of snow. Once it starts, even though it's just a taste of Winter, I want no going back! More snow tonight.

 

2013-14 was such a severe Winter that i truly dont think we will ever see a repeat. It was genuinely like a winter in the upper peninsula of MI, not the Detroit area. Puts the storied late 1970s winters to shame. 1995-96 was a cold dry disaster here, probably the last winter i can remenber genuinely being in a repeated screw zone. Feb 1934 was cold but not as cold as 2015.  Its always interesting to me to see how some winters are equally good in the Lakes and new england and others are different. Im kind of on the eastern fringe of what's good for the Midwest and the Western fringe of what's good for the northeast lol, at least in terms of southern stream action. Thats why i skim this thread in addition to our lakes forum threads. Often good analysis!

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16 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It feels like Winter. The wet snow Friday melted in the afternoon due to the warm ground but it fell to the low 20s Friday night with wind chills in the single digits so there were plenty of frozen puddles the next day along with another light dusting of snow. Once it starts, even though it's just a taste of Winter, I want no going back! More snow tonight.

 

2013-14 was such a severe Winter that i truly dont think we will ever see a repeat. It was genuinely like a winter in the upper peninsula of MI, not the Detroit area. Puts the storied late 1970s winters to shame. 1995-96 was a cold dry disaster here, probably the last winter i can remenber genuinely being in a repeated screw zone. Feb 1934 was cold but not as cold as 2015.  Its always interesting to me to see how some winters are equally good in the Lakes and new england and others are different. Im kind of on the eastern fringe of what's good for the Midwest and the Western fringe of what's good for the northeast lol, at least in terms of southern stream action. Thats why i skim this thread in addition to our lakes forum threads. Often good analysis!

Crazy 95-96 was the best winter in NYC recorded history 

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JMA updated & its golden for DJF....all 3 months.

BLOCKING:

DEC: Strong -EPO with bouts of Atlantic blocking.

JAN: Strong -EPO, Strong -NAO

FEB: Very Strong in all 3 regions -EPO/-AO/-NAO

The biggest change was the increasing amount of blocking.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

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12 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

JMA updated & its golden for DJF....all 3 months.

BLOCKING:

DEC: Strong -EPO with bouts of Atlantic blocking.

JAN: Strong -EPO, Strong -NAO

FEB: Very Strong in all 3 regions -EPO/-AO/-NAO

The biggest change was the increasing amount of blocking.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

Looks good!

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10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm in the mountains of NE PA for the weekend and my pond froze over (only at the top though) and we had our first snowflakes of the season Friday and Saturday with snow squalls that coated everything with the sky only partly cloudy lol.

Wow 2013-14 for you was like 1995-96 for us and February 2015 was one of the coldest months on record for pretty much all of us.  Similar to February 1934 for here, except no -15 lows lol.

We have a house in Lake Como, PA in northern Wayne County. Were you near there?

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7 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Crazy 95-96 was the best winter in NYC recorded history 

I was only 12-13 at the time and it was my 1st Winter measuring snow daily, I was just getting into the weather. What a disappointment it was lol. I finished with just 31.3" of snow, but 8 of those inches fell in Spring. This will now be my 24th winter measuring snow and the only 2 winters to see less than 95-96 were 1999-00 (29.3") and 2011-12 (25.5", my lowest on record). Average is low to mid 40s, and 5 of the last 11 years were in the 60s or greater (most 96.2" in 13-14).  So as you can imagine I do not even think of 95-96 lol

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Man, everything appears to be lining up. Love seeing that warm pool showing up around AK, as well as south of Greenland. Certainly supportive of +PNA/-NAO episodes going forward. QBO appears to be weak as well, which also supports the blocking idea. Throw in the assist from a solar min and things look plain pants-tentish. Just trying not to get too carried away yet.

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55 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Man, everything appears to be lining up. Love seeing that warm pool showing up around AK, as well as south of Greenland. Certainly supportive of +PNA/-NAO episodes going forward. QBO appears to be weak as well, which also supports the blocking idea. Throw in the assist from a solar min and things look plain pants-tentish. Just trying not to get too carried away yet.

Probably best not to get carried away ever on a whole season. Head-scratch inducing weirdness has intervened before and will again! Fun to be hopeful though :)

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On 11/12/2018 at 12:47 PM, nzucker said:

We have a house in Lake Como, PA in northern Wayne County. Were you near there?

Yes it's about 2,200 feet in elevation but a bit south of you, near Lake Harmony.  The snow squalls were amazing to wake up to Saturday morning.  I think it snowed there last night too but I was already back on Long Island by then.

 

I have a feeling this winter will be the first one since 2002-03 where everyone shares in the big snows.

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On 11/12/2018 at 6:08 AM, michsnowfreak said:

It feels like Winter. The wet snow Friday melted in the afternoon due to the warm ground but it fell to the low 20s Friday night with wind chills in the single digits so there were plenty of frozen puddles the next day along with another light dusting of snow. Once it starts, even though it's just a taste of Winter, I want no going back! More snow tonight.

 

2013-14 was such a severe Winter that i truly dont think we will ever see a repeat. It was genuinely like a winter in the upper peninsula of MI, not the Detroit area. Puts the storied late 1970s winters to shame. 1995-96 was a cold dry disaster here, probably the last winter i can remenber genuinely being in a repeated screw zone. Feb 1934 was cold but not as cold as 2015.  Its always interesting to me to see how some winters are equally good in the Lakes and new england and others are different. Im kind of on the eastern fringe of what's good for the Midwest and the Western fringe of what's good for the northeast lol, at least in terms of southern stream action. Thats why i skim this thread in addition to our lakes forum threads. Often good analysis!

The winters that are really good for both I think have a variable storm track and  a lot of redeveloping Miller B's that dump on your area first and then come out this way and redevelop offshore.  How were 2004-05 and 2010-11 for you?  2004-05 was the king of Miller B's and I know 2010-11 had huge snowstorms that hit the northeast and also hit the midwest.  Reminded me of 1977-78 in that respect although that winter lasted longer for us.

In the mountains where I was over the weekend it got dumped on last night but sadly I was traveling back to the coast so I didn't get to experience it, but I see there's more chances coming for this week.

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On 11/12/2018 at 1:54 PM, michsnowfreak said:

I was only 12-13 at the time and it was my 1st Winter measuring snow daily, I was just getting into the weather. What a disappointment it was lol. I finished with just 31.3" of snow, but 8 of those inches fell in Spring. This will now be my 24th winter measuring snow and the only 2 winters to see less than 95-96 were 1999-00 (29.3") and 2011-12 (25.5", my lowest on record). Average is low to mid 40s, and 5 of the last 11 years were in the 60s or greater (most 96.2" in 13-14).  So as you can imagine I do not even think of 95-96 lol

2011-12 really sticks out like a sore thumb in a very snowy decade the only thing about that season was the aberration of an October snowstorm that snowed out Halloween.  It was all downhill after that!

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On 11/12/2018 at 4:42 PM, JBinStoughton said:

Probably best not to get carried away ever on a whole season. Head-scratch inducing weirdness has intervened before and will again! Fun to be hopeful though :)

2001-02 was a good lesson not to get carried away even though the winters after that more than made up for it!

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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

2011-12 really sticks out like a sore thumb in a very snowy decade the only thing about that season was the aberration of an October snowstorm that snowed out Halloween.  It was all downhill after that!

Sore thumb is right. Only 2 of the past 11 winters have had below avg snowfall here....2015-16 was 8" below avg and 2011-12 was 17" below avg (at least DTW got 26"...i recall some east coast places were in single digits!). If thats not sticking out like a sore thumb idk what is!

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19 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Sore thumb is right. Only 2 of the past 11 winters have had below avg snowfall here....2015-16 was 8" below avg and 2011-12 was 17" below avg (at least DTW got 26"...i recall some east coast places were in single digits!). If thats not sticking out like a sore thumb idk what is!

lol I looked at Islip, NY's snowfall tally in the NY subforum thread and Islip has had 36 or more inches of snow in 9 out of the last 10 seasons and 42 or more inches of snow in 8 out of the last 10 seasons.  The one year out of the last 10 when they didn't get to three feet of snow was 2011-12 when the total there was only 5.5"!

 

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5 hours ago, uncle W said:

1866-67 was big in the NYC area...some records from 1872...

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1873-01-01/ed-1/seq-1/

Thanks I used to research old snowstorms at the library using microfilm/microfiche back in the 90s lol.  100 inches of snow that year maybe? I think we have almost gotten there in a 12 month period with some of our blockbuster winters lately if you combine different parts of 2 seasons.

 

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6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

lol I looked at Islip, NY's snowfall tally in the NY subforum thread and Islip has had 36 or more inches of snow in 9 out of the last 10 seasons and 42 or more inches of snow in 8 out of the last 10 seasons.  The one year out of the last 10 when they didn't get to three feet of snow was 2011-12 when the total there was only 5.5"!

 

That winter was trash everywhere. I was in Ithaca and the biggest storm was 6" of concrete in late April. That February was also the warmest I ever experienced prior to this year's.

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9 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

That winter was trash everywhere. I was in Ithaca and the biggest storm was 6" of concrete in late April. That February was also the warmest I ever experienced prior to this year's.

It goes in the pantheon of failure, along with 1972-73, 1997-98, 2001-02.  All of those winters had less than 6 inches of snow for us.

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

lol I looked at Islip, NY's snowfall tally in the NY subforum thread and Islip has had 36 or more inches of snow in 9 out of the last 10 seasons and 42 or more inches of snow in 8 out of the last 10 seasons.  The one year out of the last 10 when they didn't get to three feet of snow was 2011-12 when the total there was only 5.5"!

 

2007-08: 78.2"

2008-09: 64.8"

2009-10: 46.1"

2010-11: 69.3"

2011-12: 25.5"

2012-13: 47.7"

2013-14: 96.2"

2014-15: 48.5"

2015-16: 35.0"

2016-17: 41.6"

2017-18: 62.5"

 

I think the fact that it was basically 1 dud surrounded by good winters made it more tolerable. Avg is around 43"

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5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks I used to research old snowstorms at the library using microfilm/microfiche back in the 90s lol.  100 inches of snow that year maybe? I think we have almost gotten there in a 12 month period with some of our blockbuster winters lately if you combine different parts of 2 seasons.

 

Lol....I did that from the 1960s on until the internet.

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8 hours ago, weathafella said:

Lol....I did that from the 1960s on until the internet.

Haha I think we are going to LOVE this winter, Jer!

 

This storm is already overperforming here on the south shore of Long Island, very heavy snow sticking to everything including roads and my pond has been frozen over since this morning

 

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10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

2007-08: 78.2"

2008-09: 64.8"

2009-10: 46.1"

2010-11: 69.3"

2011-12: 25.5"

2012-13: 47.7"

2013-14: 96.2"

2014-15: 48.5"

2015-16: 35.0"

2016-17: 41.6"

2017-18: 62.5"

 

I think the fact that it was basically 1 dud surrounded by good winters made it more tolerable. Avg is around 43"

haha 2002-03 was good therapy for me after 2001-02

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