Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, ScituateWX said:

Kind of a weenie question but what is meant by an weak El Nino modoki event?  From what I have gathered it means cooler water in the Nino 1 and 2 regions, while the warmer water is further west toward the dateline and this causes convection to fire.  I could be totally off on that but I guess what I'm asking is what makes this setup prime for SNE or has in the past thanks!

It means west-based El Niño. You have regions like 4 and 3.4 with warmer anomalies than 3 and 1+2. 

It typically produces a further west Aleutian low in the N PAC which favors downstream amplified PNA. The weak part is good for New England because you keep the northern stream more dominant in a weak El Niño. When Nino gets stronger, it starts to really crank the subtropical jet (STJ). The STJ getting going will tend to produce more Miller A storms and risk missing us to the south with more blocking (ala 2009-2010) or in the cases without blocking or less blocking, those storms can sometimes stemwind up the coast and go straight north into the Ct river valley or Hudson valley, which would obviously be a garbage setup for New England. We tend to want Miller Bs and redevelopers. We can still cash in on Miller A's obviously, but there's more risk and it might get the jackpot fetish brigade in a tizzy when they see philly maxing out while we only get merely a decent storm. 

 

So a weak modoki El Niño is pretty prime for New England. Esp SNE. They tend to correlate with higher Greenland blocking too. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, tamarack said:

Last year was my first significant Christmas Day snowfall since 1978, in Fort Kent.  Would love seeing it again.  The only significant Thanksgiving Day snowfall I can recall was 3.7" in 2005.  That was 7-8 hours of steady windless moderate snow with all the grandkids here to watch the flakes drifting down.  (The storm also produced 2 cold-air tornados, EF-0 and EF-1, on Maine's midcoast.)  Of course, the rest of 05-06 was awful, trailing only 15-16 for snowfall and had the least SDDs by a fair amount.  It's the only winter that failed to have even one 6" snowfall since we moved to Maine in Jan. 1973.   This past winter was a lot better, of course.

 Unfortunately… I lived In Waltham back then, so I missed out on those.  I think it 2007 or 2008 one of those Decembers 40 inches?

But in terms of just having a nice early solid winter my personal experience is 1995

[Typhoon Tip]

As far as the ENSO reliance in determining proxy over our winters (...not saying you personally are reliant, just in general..), I'll paraphrase old hat opines I've mentioned in the past.  

I'm not a big fan of that ... particularly from the NP-GL-NE regions, for a couple of more expanded reasons: 

1 ... the polarward indexes can overwhelm those regions, obviously, for existing N of the 40th parallel and so forth.  NCEP seasonal outlooks over the last 10 years have adopted some ceding to the notion that not only is that true, but the vagarious nature of the EPO-lower AO-NAO arc on our side of the hemisphere makes it almost impossible to predict what they will do week to week, let alone...season to season. The science there is vague.  Particularly, that is subsequently true as to how it all relates to ENSO.

There are quick and dirty corroboration attempts such as that found over at the cross-correlation tables https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/table/  ... I have also read/heard very recent attempts to try and circuit SSW thru QBO's, west vs easterly phases.. Perhaps there is validity there, however, SSW --> AO is the rarefied state, actually... What about the AO when there is absence of SSWs?  Which most of the time, the AO is not being influenced by SSWs; the index meanders into eras of both positive and negative bias from apparently other influences (and there is a litany of what those possibly are, too...)  blah blah...

For example, the AO is strongly argued via statistics to be influence by SSW: Check.  But, this perceived causal relationship has a time-dependency. The AO does not respond immediately to the onset of the SSW.  It may take some two to three weeks for that syncing to take place, do to the time it takes for the down-welling SSW warm atmosheric mass to intertangle with the tropopausal heights within the mean polar vortex... When it does, the AO tanks - usually... During that entire fray of events ... where is the ENSO?  Did it 'cause' the SSW? If so, there would be a time lag there too... So, the ENSO took four months to trigger an SSW, which took almost a month to effect the AO... So, then the AO dumped all it's cold conveyor over a Eurasion bias... before R-wave roll-backs finally favored a cool down over N/A...  That's what... six months ... ? By then, the ENSO could be changing... I'm just spit-balling some of the complexity there to elucidate the point.

2 ... which lends to my next point... The ENSO is actually slowly moving toward a modest warm phase state, in the summer. I've heard chirps and homages in various writes here and there, that suggest other's are onto this sort aspect where the weak gradients of summer don't really supply a proficient physical/mechanical means for the atmosphere to reflect those changes.  We need the hemisphere to start cooling seasonally, compressing the heights everywhere from N --> S... then at some critical threshold where the jet structures ignite, then we see that forcing more successfully.  I just wonder if we are going to be seeing a warm NINO pattern (where said polar field gunk isn't already teething ) at all until more mid to late winter.  The fact that CPC discusses ENSO-neutral until some time over the Autumn ...when El Nino may actually finally betray it's intentions... seems to support the idea of a belated influence on the general circulation ... 

As an afterthought ... it almost smacks as though the El Nino could even be kind o faux in a sense, if the atmosphere is driving the heat distribution more so than Kelvin wave activity .. .then trop. forcing after the fact.   

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm actually encouraged ..or leaning toward increased chances for cold episodes ...relative to (climo + D(climo) )/2  ...which natively that improves cyclone frequency if that works out.  

Barring cosmic dildo imposing a statistical outlier result ... The EPO-AO-NAO arc still favor more neutral-negative phase states ... This is just based upon the last 300 years of re-analysis/behavior of the curve showing that we are entering 'dip'.  

Excluding GW compensating for that ... leaves a residue of probability in favor of that continuing over the next decade or two ... 

Plus we have this science with the solar minimum - probably related to said 300 years of periodicity - tending to enhance SSW during E/negative QBO phases ... which may not even bottom out sometime in Novie or Dodecahedren ...so is technically only mid way through it's excpect life-cycle.  

I kind of see this winter as:

(solar favorable + SSW prospects favorable + AO arc favorable + more neutral ENSO factors until mid season) / 4 = enhancing the +PNAP flow types.  

[J Paul Gordon]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm actually encouraged ..or leaning toward encouraged.  

Barring cosmic dildo imposing a statistical outlier result ... The EPO-AO-NAO arc still favor more neutral-negative phase states ... This is just based upon the last 300 years of re-analysis/behavior of the curve showing that we are entering 'dip'.  

Excluding GW compensating for that ... leaves a residue of probability in favor of that continuing over the next decade or two ... 

Plus we have this science with the solar minimum - probably related to said 300 years of periodicity - tending to enhance SSW during E/negative QBO phases ... which may not even bottom out sometime in Novie or Dodecahedren ...so is technically only mid way through it's excpect life-cycle.  

I kind of see this winter as:

(solar favorable + SSW prospects favorable + AO arc favorable + more neutral ENSO factors until mid season) / 4 = enhancing the +PNAP flow types.  

Assuming I understood, it means a potential for a nice early start to winter for a change? I will ignore the stuff about a change for the worse (warmer) midwinter. This is sick, I'm already trolling! Its the heat and humidity! 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Assuming I understood, it means a potential for a nice early start to winter for a change? I will ignore the stuff about a change for the worse (warmer) midwinter. This is sick, I'm already trolling! Its the heat and humidity! 

 

I just mean over all.. . if one's hobby is nice winter performing weather events, your chances of experiencing lean encouraging.  

Whether that's early or late... not sure, unknown - no comment. 

To reiterate ... no, I don't necessarily think that a modest or even low grade moderate El Nino by mid journey through the season has to mean a "worse" - assuming you mean lowering cold and snow chances .. - outcome. 

I was sort of dancing around the notion that a new onsetting albeit weak warm ENSO doesn't have 'momentum' yet in the atmosphere as early winter arrives...  So, yeeeah, maybe read in to mean earlier winter chances - however, (again) I don't see that ENSO as necessarily being very instructive on the pattern ... because the EPO-AO-NAO arc is in play and there's an apparent disconnect there much of the time.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

On August 7, 2018 at 11:21 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

 

I just mean over all.. . if one's hobby is nice winter performing weather events, your chances of experiencing lean encouraging.  

Whether that's early or late... not sure, unknown - no comment. 

To reiterate ... no, I don't necessarily think that a modest or even low grade moderate El Nino by mid journey through the season has to mean a "worse" - assuming you mean lowering cold and snow chances .. - outcome. 

I was sort of dancing around the notion that a new onsetting albeit weak warm ENSO doesn't have 'momentum' yet in the atmosphere as early winter arrives...  So, yeeeah, maybe read in to mean earlier winter chances - however, (again) I don't see that ENSO as necessarily being very instructive on the pattern ... because the EPO-AO-NAO arc is in play and there's an apparent disconnect there much of the time.  

John, if this were February 10, you would be waxing poetic about the snow melting off of the windshields under cloudy skies and sub freezing chill....tic, toc....decline in solar irradiance becoming palpable-

[Typhoon Tip]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

John, if this were February 10, you would be waxing poetic about the snow melting off of the windshields under cloudy skies and sub freezing chill....tic, toc....decline in solar irradiance becoming palpable-

O   k

I'll be the first to admit, seasonal outlooks aren't my forte. 

My focus is mid and extended range specific threat probabilities ... When it comes to seasonal outlooks, I'm always musing this that or the other thing, when all said and done and what verified was that this and something else.  So, take it for how little it's worth ...

Otherwise, I'm not sure what motivated your comment?  I'm not in here to romanticize and/or reminisce because of some nostalgic estranged longing ... if that's what you're thinking.  The thread's title is "Countdown to winter..." - I admit to not going back and reading the content and gathering in the tenor in that regard, but its just a winter outlook, that's all. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

O   k

I'll be the first to admit, seasonal outlooks aren't my forte. 

My focus is mid and extended range specific threat probabilities ... When it comes to seasonal outlooks, I'm always musing this that or the other thing, when all said and done and what verified was that this and something else.  So, take it for how little it's worth ...

Otherwise, I'm not sure what motivated your comment?  I'm not in here to romanticize and/or reminisce because of some nostalgic estranged longing ... if that's what you're thinking.  The thread's title is "Countdown to winter..." - I admit to not going back and reading the content and gathering in the tenor in that regard, but its just a winter outlook, that's all. 

 

Whooooosh.

My point was merely that the summer is aging and we are going to begin noticing the weaker sun.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Whooooosh.

My point was merely that the summer is aging and we are going to begin noticing the weaker sun.

 

Oh, well ...whooosh it is, then.  heh

yeah can't say I haven't noticed that already.  Darkening here by 7:50 at night and it seems like only a week ago (obviously longer) that same lumen dosing was closer to 8:50...  Plus, in the mornings, a little less of the tree tops are ablaze in morning gold when I leave at 6:45.  A month ago, I recall actual warmth to the skin ...gee, seems like the suns bin up for quite a while out here. 

You know... (not to wax it ...haha) but, it really is something how quickly it happens from here on out. You can really sense that acceleration.  The solar loss/gains slow approaching the Solstices, and then speeds way up passing the Equinox'  ... By this time next month, the sun won't even be over the horizon at 6:45 am... as little as 20 days later, it's essentially still street lamps at that hour. 

August is like the antithesis of February... not just for the literal sense of the calendar temporality.  Yeah it's 6 months later ... but, both have that whip lash seasonality in play.  For example, the difference between late May and late August, save for outlier year, is more apt to be negligible.  Yet, that same differential of time looking forward from mid August to ...late November? Not even in the same f'n ballpark. 

That ominous sense of borrowed time, both February and August ...though going opposite directions, carry that phenomenon in common.  In Feb... you can be up to your ears in winter, and in some extreme years (which seems more common over the recent decade at that...) you can get mid 80s mere weeks later.  'Course, last year popped mid 80s in February - that was a red flag event in my opinion... it was a bit beyond the pale in terms of standard anomalies.  Leave it at that... I do think, though, that the big -NAO that erupted some week to 10 days later was related to that heat transport to higher latitudes/altitudes..

[weathafella]

Well a rainy day today so for the first time I did some serious looking at the potential at least as it looks now.  And I admit to being shocked at what I’m seeing.  Moving towards modoki probably staying weak.   Low solar getting lower.  Holy crap!   I better lock in my snow removal now.   Could be an epic winter just when I thought a ratter was en route.....

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

6 hours ago, weathafella said:

Well a rainy day today so for the first time I did some serious looking at the potential at least as it looks now.  And I admit to being shocked at what I’m seeing.  Moving towards modoki probably staying weak.   Low solar getting lower.  Holy crap!   I better lock in my snow removal now.   Could be an epic winter just when I thought a ratter was en route.....

Its amazing isn't it

[Typhoon Tip]

It's intriguing how the indicators, this far in advance, can so overwhelmingly signal huge disparate snow performance between NW and SE zones ...

[Ginx snewx]

On 8/11/2018 at 3:43 PM, weathafella said:

Well a rainy day today so for the first time I did some serious looking at the potential at least as it looks now.  And I admit to being shocked at what I’m seeing.  Moving towards modoki probably staying weak.   Low solar getting lower.  Holy crap!   I better lock in my snow removal now.   Could be an epic winter just when I thought a ratter was en route.....

http://www.joshtimlin.com/enso-charts-winter

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

This question is to Ray or anyone, with the west based weak El Nino this winter expected, do these ENSO patterns allow for easterly tracking nor'easters?  Because I read back through the Juno observations thread and around page 40-45 Ray mentions that during that winter he expected that storm to be further east than the EURO/NAM combination had given we had a weak El Nino ENSO conditions west based, and that was why he knew the storm was going east of the models.  Also Clinch, known as Scott who passed away shortly after that storm, said that he thought the trend NE the models had as the storm stalled out was going to shut off the snowfall that Tuesday afternoon, but what they didn't know was development of banding to the south and west of the storm center grew and expanded and blew up along the SE Coastline of Massachusetts as the mega banding moved eastward.  We got 32" here in town because this banding blew up.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Does anyone have any idea which GoPro cameras I should get for the winter season?

[stadiumwave]

Preliminary thought:

Good bet on -EPO/-AO/+NAO during coldest periods with a periodic -NAO block at times. It's really hard to ignore 2014-15 as a strong analog so far. 2002-2003 & 2009-10 bares a little weight but I think El Nino's too strong those years to be an analog...or at least an analog for ENSO purposes.

Great Lakes & North East coast could see some really cold periods. 

Tennessee Valley, Carolina Coast to mid-Atlantic could be jackpot for snow. NE will get their share but jackpot further south. 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

This question is to Ray or anyone, with the west based weak El Nino this winter expected, do these ENSO patterns allow for easterly tracking nor'easters?  Because I read back through the Juno observations thread and around page 40-45 Ray mentions that during that winter he expected that storm to be further east than the EURO/NAM combination had given we had a weak El Nino ENSO conditions west based, and that was why he knew the storm was going east of the models.  Also Clinch, known as Scott who passed away shortly after that storm, said that he thought the trend NE the models had as the storm stalled out was going to shut off the snowfall that Tuesday afternoon, but what they didn't know was development of banding to the south and west of the storm center grew and expanded and blew up along the SE Coastline of Massachusetts as the mega banding moved eastward.  We got 32" here in town because this banding blew up.

It looks good right now, but I'm not ready to call it during the summer.......hell, I'm not even beginning to scrutinize modoki value until later this month.

I mean, this is akin to the Sox leading in the 3rd inning....can't declare victory...except maybe this season, apparently

But if that were to be the case.....the answer to your question is, yes. The prevalent n stream will increase the likelihood of a relatively large amount of late bloomers, as sometimes it takes the energy a bit longer (especially relative to modeling) to consolidate when the lion's share of dynamics are born of the n jet.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah in no way can you claim what ENSO will do..especially whether it's east or west. The next couple of months become more crucial.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

Preliminary thought:

Good bet on -EPO/-AO/+NAO during coldest periods with a periodic -NAO block at times. It's really hard to ignore 2014-15 as a strong analog so far. 2002-2003 & 2009-10 bares a little weight but I think El Nino's too strong those years to be an analog...or at least an analog for ENSO purposes.

2014 would be the superior analog given a weak modoki event.

Great Lakes & North East coast could see some really cold periods. 

Tennessee Valley, Carolina Coast to mid-Atlantic could be jackpot for snow. NE will get their share but jackpot further south. 

 

 

 

Anyone with even a modicum of knowledge regarding ENSO snowfall climo would perceive these as conflicting assertions.

I agree that el nino will be weaker than 2003 and 2010, which favored the mid atlantic. Weak el nino events favor sne.....NOT further south.

That is wrong.

[Ginx snewx]

Leaning 02 03 76 77 right now.  

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah in no way can you claim what ENSO will do..especially whether it's east or west. The next couple of months become more crucial.

Euro seasonal is tent pants

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Leaning 02 03 76 77 right now.  

I think this maybe a bit weaker than 03, but I will grant you that I believe it registered a peak MEI value in the "weak" designation...so there is that-

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone with even a modicum of knowledge regarding ENSO snowfall climo would perceive these as conflicting assertions.

I agree that el nino will be weaker than 2003 and 2010, which favored the mid atlantic. Weak el nino events favor sne.....NOT further south.

That is wrong.

http://www.joshtimlin.com/enso-charts-winter

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Euro seasonal is tent pants

I have not looked. I'll probably wait until September to start looking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

http://www.joshtimlin.com/enso-charts-winter

You 'da man.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

http://www.joshtimlin.com/enso-charts-winter

How is he designating ENSO? Which monthly period? Fall..winter? That all matters. Is it from MEI? ONI?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

How is he designating ENSO? Which monthly period? Fall..winter? That all matters. Is it from MEI? ONI?

Yea, MEI can be different...hence my 2003 reference.

My guess is ONI.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, MEI can be different...hence my 2003 reference.

My guess is ONI.

Ventrice has an interesting product that also looks at low frequency forcing..IE where the areas of overall upper level divergence and convergence are. It will be interesting to see how Nino behaves in the Fall. Sometimes it doesn't line up with the anomalies and that sort of throws a wrench into things. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ventrice has an interesting product that also looks at low frequency forcing..IE where the areas of overall upper level divergence and convergence are. It will be interesting to see how Nino behaves in the Fall. Sometimes it doesn't line up with the anomalies and that sort of throws a wrench into things. 

I'm a fan of his work....that is not available for public consumption, is it?

I remember you referenced that earlier this summer when some were trying to call faux el nino event again....you cited that in disputing it.