Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They measured rather low in Jan 2005. That should be a 90+ winter at least.

Yeah they were 6+ low for the blizzard for sure.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You should have been here then (eastern).  Messenger (RIP) was giving play by play from the cape.

Why wasn't eastern as successful as this forum?

[weathafella]

Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Why wasn't eastern as successful as this forum?

It was.  But the owner decided to end it in November 2010.  So amwx was quickly formed.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

It was.  But the owner decided to end it in November 2010.  So amwx was quickly formed.

Oh ok.

[tamarack]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL Tippy et al. I think 02-03 likely would be different if a similar look happened. And 09-10 was crazy. A minor tweak and it’s 68-69. That’s just how it goes sometimes. 

That late Feb mess in 2010, the most unpleasant 10" snowfall I ever hope to see, was 5° from a repeat of what had happened 41 years earlier on the exact same dates.  Though 05-06 and 15-16 were worse by the numbers, 09-10 was by far the most frustrating.  After the three total whiffs on major KUs,  that slopfest while points south and west were getting buried was like being taunted by the wx. 

L
OL out of many similar setups that have been good for you all. You and Tamarack need to hold each other and talk out your fears with a Will as a therapist.

  Any PTSD up here has been fostered by all the SNE glee at how wonderful 02-03 was

That and 1960-61 were the two greatest winters of a very snowy 60s decade.  I would take 1966-67 based on longevity- it was amazing!  I also like the contrast of a very hot/dry 1966 summer followed by that kind of snowy and cold winter lol.  

We had over 100" in 60-61, and IMO that winter was tops in by NNJ days.  66-67 had more snowstorms, the thundersnow, the late March record cold, but no events greater than 15" and none that produced lasting snow cover.  60-61 had storms of 18", 20", and 24" (that last a conservative guess on NYC's windiest Feb day), extended pack-holding cold, the tallest pack in NJ since reliable records began (it's not even close), plus a 12" pastey surprise in late March.  It's the difference between A+ and A++.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On November 6, 2018 at 10:39 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Why wasn't eastern as successful as this forum?

Eastern was more successful imo.

My mind is made up....I really gained a lot of clarity today.

Going to start writing tomorrow and hope to publish by Monday.

[CoastalWx]

On 11/6/2018 at 11:00 AM, tamarack said:

That late Feb mess in 2010, the most unpleasant 10" snowfall I ever hope to see, was 5° from a repeat of what had happened 41 years earlier on the exact same dates.  Though 05-06 and 15-16 were worse by the numbers, 09-10 was by far the most frustrating.  After the three total whiffs on major KUs,  that slopfest while points south and west were getting buried was like being taunted by the wx. 

L
OL out of many similar setups that have been good for you all. You and Tamarack need to hold each other and talk out your fears with a Will as a therapist.

  Any PTSD up here has been fostered by all the SNE glee at how wonderful 02-03 was

That and 1960-61 were the two greatest winters of a very snowy 60s decade.  I would take 1966-67 based on longevity- it was amazing!  I also like the contrast of a very hot/dry 1966 summer followed by that kind of snowy and cold winter lol.  

We had over 100" in 60-61, and IMO that winter was tops in by NNJ days.  66-67 had more snowstorms, the thundersnow, the late March record cold, but no events greater than 15" and none that produced lasting snow cover.  60-61 had storms of 18", 20", and 24" (that last a conservative guess on NYC's windiest Feb day), extended pack-holding cold, the tallest pack in NJ since reliable records began (it's not even close), plus a 12" pastey surprise in late March.  It's the difference between A+ and A++.

That's incredible for NNJ. What town was that in? I have seen pics of the drought here in 65-67ish timeframe. I know the local coop nearby only had 27" and change for precip in '67.

[Go Kart Mozart]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Eastern was more successful imo.

My mind is made up....I really gained a lot of clarity today.

Going to start writing tomorrow and hope to publish by Monday.

The peer reviewers are ready.

[weathafella]

7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That's incredible for NNJ. What town was that in? I have seen pics of the drought here in 65-67ish timeframe. I know the local coop nearby only had 27" and change for precip in '67.

I can vouch for the 1960-61 numbers.   Deep cover for 2 months straight.  We started with the 12/11-12/1960 blizzard. The JFK inaugural storm and the 2/3-4/61 mega dump bookended a stretch that is only surpassed in my lifetime by the 1/22/15-2/20/15 stretch in the Boston area.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

The peer reviewers are ready.

I think I'm going to dish it out to my local town media, as well...my only concern is that the public has the attention span of a weenie with his wife during a blizzard. I don't feel like doing two separate editions for public and weenie consumption. I like to start from the ground up as a refresher and explain everything.

[tamarack]

9 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That's incredible for NNJ. What town was that in? I have seen pics of the drought here in 65-67ish timeframe. I know the local coop nearby only had 27" and change for precip in '67.

We lived in the Jersey Highlands in the town of Kinnelon (named for Albert Kinney, whose Sweet Caporal cigarettes made him a fortune during the latter decades of the 19th century.)  Our place was at about 700' elevation, at Lat. 40.9766, Lon. 74.3702.  Below are the logs of 60-61 and 66-67 for our home (based on memory) and for Oak Ridge Reservoir (co-op records), about 9 miles west and 150' higher elev.

1960-61         Home      Oak Ridge                
12/11-12         18.0         14.0          Temps low-mid teens, nice for NJ deer season opener.  Giants-'Skins in DC trying to play on 8" powder. briefly lost fumble in snow piles.
12/17               2.0           2.0
12/20-21          2.0           3.0
12/29-30          3.0           4.0
1/1                  0.0           1.0
1/16-17            6.0           5.0         0.3" ZR Sunday afternoon, 6" on top that night.  Very surprised that school wasn't closed Monday.  They knew something?
1/19-20          20.0          24.0         The JFK inaugural storm.  1st time I saw accumulating snow at temps below 10°.
1/24                 1.0           2.0 
1/27                4.0            0.0         Fringed by major storm to east.  I think co-op missed reporting, as sites all around all had 2-4".
2/3-4              24.0          27.0        My 2' may be conservative, given 50 mph gusts.  Co-op reported 50" pack on 2/5 and site 10 mi. NW 52", probably near 45" at home.  NYC sub-32 1/19-2/3.
2/13                 1.0           0.0
2/16                1.0            2.0
3/1-2               1.5            1.5
3/9                  1.0            1.5
3/14                1.0            1.0
3/23                6.0           12.0      Surprised by paste bomb, most fell 8A-noon, had to walk the 5 miles from school.   Co-op probably didn't measure until its 7A obs time on 3/24, #settle/melt.
 4/1                 1.0            1.0
4/10                2.0            2.0
4/13-14           4.0            4.0      SN+ to rain overnight.
Total             104.5        101.0     With the apparent missed obs on 1/27, co-op would be about the same.

1966-67
12/14              7.0            7.0      Fluffy and moist, great for snowmen
12/21              7.0            6.0
12/24-25        15.0           13.0     Thundersnow, during SN+ mid-aft 24th.
12/29              2.0             1.0
1/6                  1.0            1.0
1/28-29           1.0            2.5
2/3                  1.0            1.5
2/6                  4.0            3.5     SN+ 5-9A with plunging temps.  Then 16-18 hours until the big dog.
2/7                 15.0          11.0     Snow at 6°, would not pack under dad's 4000 lb Pontiac "boat", so we couldn't push it up the hill from driveway.  Probably tallest pack of winter @ 18" +/-
2/10                1.0            1.0
2/18                1.5            1.0
2/21-22           3.0            4.0
2/23-24           5.0            5.5
2/28                1.5            0.5
3/5                  3.0            3.0
3/6-7               5.0            5.0     SN to ZR, 0.2"-0.3" accretion (rained too hard to accrete.)  Big snow BOS.
3/15-16           7.0            8.0     Any memory of this storm was obscured by the next 2 plus record cold.
3/17                6.0            4.5     1-3" clipper grew muscles.  Temp fell from 13 to 8 during 5 hours when most snow fell.   Barely got to 10° on 3/18, low of -3 (NYC 8) on 19th.
3/23               10.0           9.5     Started just after midnight, snowed thru the day.  Even NYC got 9.8".
4/24                1.5            2.0     Back end of cold coastal.
4/27                3.0            0.0     I think the co-op missed this one, too, as it fell 2-7A and other nearby sites had 1-3".
Total              100.5        90.5     I may have been too generous on the Christmas Eve and Feb. 7 storms, both windblown powder.
 

[dmillz25]

34 minutes ago, tamarack said:

We lived in the Jersey Highlands in the town of Kinnelon (named for Albert Kinney, whose Sweet Caporal cigarettes made him a fortune during the latter decades of the 19th century.)  Our place was at about 700' elevation, at Lat. 40.9766, Lon. 74.3702.  Below are the logs of 60-61 and 66-67 for our home (based on memory) and for Oak Ridge Reservoir (co-op records), about 9 miles west and 150' higher elev.

1960-61         Home      Oak Ridge                
12/11-12         18.0         14.0          Temps low-mid teens, nice for NJ deer season opener.  Giants-'Skins in DC trying to play on 8" powder. briefly lost fumble in snow piles.
12/17               2.0           2.0
12/20-21          2.0           3.0
12/29-30          3.0           4.0
1/1                  0.0           1.0
1/16-17            6.0           5.0         0.3" ZR Sunday afternoon, 6" on top that night.  Very surprised that school wasn't closed Monday.  They knew something?
1/19-20          20.0          24.0         The JFK inaugural storm.  1st time I saw accumulating snow at temps below 10°.
1/24                 1.0           2.0 
1/27                4.0            0.0         Fringed by major storm to east.  I think co-op missed reporting, as sites all around all had 2-4".
2/3-4              24.0          27.0        My 2' may be conservative, given 50 mph gusts.  Co-op reported 50" pack on 2/5 and site 10 mi. NW 52", probably near 45" at home.  NYC sub-32 1/19-2/3.
2/13                 1.0           0.0
2/16                1.0            2.0
3/1-2               1.5            1.5
3/9                  1.0            1.5
3/14                1.0            1.0
3/23                6.0           12.0      Surprised by paste bomb, most fell 8A-noon, had to walk the 5 miles from school.   Co-op probably didn't measure until its 7A obs time on 3/24, #settle/melt.
 4/1                 1.0            1.0
4/10                2.0            2.0
4/13-14           4.0            4.0      SN+ to rain overnight.
Total             104.5        101.0     With the apparent missed obs on 1/27, co-op would be about the same.

1966-67
12/14              7.0            7.0      Fluffy and moist, great for snowmen
12/21              7.0            6.0
12/24-25        15.0           13.0     Thundersnow, during SN+ mid-aft 24th.
12/29              2.0             1.0
1/6                  1.0            1.0
1/28-29           1.0            2.5
2/3                  1.0            1.5
2/6                  4.0            3.5     SN+ 5-9A with plunging temps.  Then 16-18 hours until the big dog.
2/7                 15.0          11.0     Snow at 6°, would not pack under dad's 4000 lb Pontiac "boat", so we couldn't push it up the hill from driveway.  Probably tallest pack of winter @ 18" +/-
2/10                1.0            1.0
2/18                1.5            1.0
2/21-22           3.0            4.0
2/23-24           5.0            5.5
2/28                1.5            0.5
3/5                  3.0            3.0
3/6-7               5.0            5.0     SN to ZR, 0.2"-0.3" accretion (rained too hard to accrete.)  Big snow BOS.
3/15-16           7.0            8.0     Any memory of this storm was obscured by the next 2 plus record cold.
3/17                6.0            4.5     1-3" clipper grew muscles.  Temp fell from 13 to 8 during 5 hours when most snow fell.   Barely got to 10° on 3/18, low of -3 (NYC 8) on 19th.
3/23               10.0           9.5     Started just after midnight, snowed thru the day.  Even NYC got 9.8".
4/24                1.5            2.0     Back end of cold coastal.
4/27                3.0            0.0     I think the co-op missed this one, too, as it fell 2-7A and other nearby sites had 1-3".
Total              100.5        90.5     I may have been too generous on the Christmas Eve and Feb. 7 storms, both windblown powder.
 

What did nyc get that year?

[JBinStoughton]

This forum is a stroll down memory lane at this point. 

[leo2000]

We are overdo for a wire to wire winter. So I think that might be possible for this winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, JBinStoughton said:

This forum is a stroll down memory lane at this point. 

Unless there is a major snow storm or hurricane imminent, this forum is just an avenue to relive wet dreams of blizzards

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 hours ago, leo2000 said:

We are overdo for a wire to wire winter. So I think that might be possible for this winter. 

Overdue for a wire to wire ratter too. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 11/6/2018 at 10:16 AM, weathafella said:

It was a great winter for sure.  The January 2005 blizzard as well as multiple 6-12 events afterwards made it special.  I think BOS got 86 inches that winter.

I had 107.5" in Wilmington.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 11/6/2018 at 10:24 AM, weathafella said:

Lol....the December 2003 dump was gone by the holidays.  Then cold and dry ruled although we managed to keep snow otg from dinklesh*t events.  No thanks.

Yea, all set with 2003-04....and 2013-14 for that matter. That season reminds me of 93-94 in that its overrated for this area.

[dryslot]

Were all set with 2003-04, Don't need that repeat.

[DavisStraight]

5 hours ago, JBinStoughton said:

This forum is a stroll down memory lane at this point. 

Hoping history repeats, id take 66-67 in a heart beat.

[tamarack]

5 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

What did nyc get that year?

60-61:  54.7"   66-67:  51.5"  In the 3 big storms (12/11-12, 1/19-20, 2/3-4) EWR totaled 56.7" while NYC got 42.5".

Across the river at EWR they did better:  72.6" in 60-61 and 57.3" in 66-67.

[CoastalWx]

32 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Were all set with 2003-04, Don't need that repeat.

Agree. 13-14 was fun, but snow was always torched away.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Looking at pictures, it's different 2012 after, and probably 2017 after. We can get 300% snowfall now but it's not as precious or something. 

[dryslot]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Agree. 13-14 was fun, but snow was always torched away.

Certainly was better then 2003-04, At least we ended above normal that year albeit keeping a snowapack and the largest storm only yielded 10" that season.

[tamarack]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Agree. 13-14 was fun, but snow was always torched away.

Excellent snowpack winter here, as latitude really did its thing in March.  (And that month's 30-35" persisted nicely thanks to record cold - Farmington's coldest March in its 125 year records.)

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

Excellent snowpack winter here, as latitude really did its thing in March.  (And that month's 30-35" persisted nicely thanks to record cold - Farmington's coldest March in its 125 year records.)

March was cold, but again....lost potential. Just missed the big blizzard at the end of the month.  The winter as a whole was good from a total snow point of view, but too many cutters. As Powderfreak how January was. 

[LibertyBell]

On 11/5/2018 at 5:26 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It's a very cold +PNA look though. Not one of those PAC jet ones like we sometimes see in stronger El Niño's or garbage El Niño's like 94-95. It's basically linking to a -EPO

hence the 2002-03 analog, Will?

a variable, slightly negative NAO with a favorable Pacific is amazing.

[LibertyBell]

On 11/5/2018 at 6:27 PM, michsnowfreak said:

True. Although as with everything else, the 6-12" snowstorms are increasing as is the lake effect. 

I've seen that too, crazy thing is everything is either like 1-3" or 10"+ lmao, a midrange snow event is about as rare as a midrange jump shot in an NBA game.  Which brings up an interesting question, would most snowlovers like frequent moderate sized events or two or three total events for the entire winter of double digit totals?  If it's two I might just go for the more frequent moderate sized events, but if we're talking about three double digit events spaced nicely across the whole winter (like 1960-61 for us) I would go for that.

[LibertyBell]

On 11/5/2018 at 11:44 PM, powderfreak said:

Snowfall PTSD is caused historically from winters in which those with lower climo snowfall crush those with a higher annual average [Tippy et all, 2015].  Could be a year like 02-03 in Maine or like 09-10 when the Mid-Atlantic crushed New England.  But in the end both or all of the winters that did that were one variable away from being much better to their north.  Maybe those 09-10 blizzards are corrected northward, same with 02-03 if one minor thing is different.  

Roll of the dice every single winter, but at least we aren't seeing some huge SE ridge modeled on the seasonal outlooks.

I'll make an addendum to that.....Snowfall PTSD also occurs when a great snow season is predicted and we get a real dud of a winter.  2001-02 still haunts me, although 2002-03 made up for it nicely as did the winters that followed lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 11/6/2018 at 8:23 AM, CoastalWx said:

I don’t have a lot of anecdotal evidence to say this, but we are due for some cstl hugging. If so, you’d do well. 

I'm leaning towards modified storm tracks linked to climate change, with warmer water offshore storms tend to follow those tracks.  So storms that would have been way offshore in the 80s are now closer to the coast.  Eventually our luck will run out as storm tracks shift even further to the west in the coming decades.