ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well 94-95 and 02-03 for way different reasons. 02-03 was close to good there. Probably could roll the dice again and come up with a much better outcome for 02-03 Xmas 02 was really bad luck only fringing them (or missing a little further north)...and Jan 03 they could've gotten a lot more. East based -NAO is usually good there. I would totally roll the dice with 02-03 in his 'hood again. He's prob double his snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Y'all have gotten soft...not cross posting the images. Here it is so others dont have to search the M.A thread as it gets longer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 El Nino, +PNA, 1 month of +NAO, 1 -NAO 1 neutral.. big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: El Nino, +PNA, 1 month of +NAO, 1 -NAO 1 neutral.. big deal It's a very cold +PNA look though. Not one of those PAC jet ones like we sometimes see in stronger El Niño's or garbage El Niño's like 94-95. It's basically linking to a -EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 10 hours ago, JBinStoughton said: Hopefully, beyond any typos, he’s right on the money with that forecast! He is calling for huge winter on the east coast. Here he is calling for colder than avg with avg snow. As long as we avoid big thaws and have continuous snowcover i can deal with that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Thats because you dont rely on big snow events for your seasonal totals, so your variance isn't as great. True. Although as with everything else, the 6-12" snowstorms are increasing as is the lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 7 hours ago, CoastalWx said: LOL out of many similar setups that have been good for you all. You and Tamarack need to hold each other and talk out your fears with a Will as a therapist. Snowfall PTSD is caused historically from winters in which those with lower climo snowfall crush those with a higher annual average [Tippy et all, 2015]. Could be a year like 02-03 in Maine or like 09-10 when the Mid-Atlantic crushed New England. But in the end both or all of the winters that did that were one variable away from being much better to their north. Maybe those 09-10 blizzards are corrected northward, same with 02-03 if one minor thing is different. Roll of the dice every single winter, but at least we aren't seeing some huge SE ridge modeled on the seasonal outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 6 hours ago, powderfreak said: Snowfall PTSD is caused historically from winters in which those with lower climo snowfall crush those with a higher annual average [Tippy et all, 2015]. Could be a year like 02-03 in Maine or like 09-10 when the Mid-Atlantic crushed New England. But in the end both or all of the winters that did that were one variable away from being much better to their north. Maybe those 09-10 blizzards are corrected northward, same with 02-03 if one minor thing is different. Roll of the dice every single winter, but at least we aren't seeing some huge SE ridge modeled on the seasonal outlooks. LOL Tippy et al. I think 02-03 likely would be different if a similar look happened. And 09-10 was crazy. A minor tweak and it’s 68-69. That’s just how it goes sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 That euro seasonal is pretty epic. And the implication of a good December trip boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 I like the look but i am applying the Scooter flags to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: That euro seasonal is pretty epic. And the implication of a good December trip boot. We need a good Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: I like the look but i am applying the Scooter flags to it. I don’t have a lot of anecdotal evidence to say this, but we are due for some cstl hugging. If so, you’d do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 I don’t have a lot of anecdotal evidence to say this, but we are due for some cstl hugging. If so, you’d do well. It’s always better here with a closer in track due to the coastline and where this area is positioned along it, It’s the storms that take a track ENE from the BM that are not favorable for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 I think everyone would take a snowy Dec and tell Morch to Morch . Get the snows when they count. Not in spring when it melts by 10AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Morch snows are fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We need a good Dec. I need a good nights sleep with a good December being way behind that. 2004 December which was not cold but had decent snow would work. The first 2 weeks of 2005 were torchy but we snuck in a decent snow event. Second half of January through end of winter 2005 was epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: I need a good nights sleep with a good December being way behind that. 2004 December which was not cold but had decent snow would work. The first 2 weeks of 2005 were torchy but we snuck in a decent snow event. Second half of January through end of winter 2005 was epic. Yes, It would, But i would rather have the ground frozen then let it snow, But beggars won't be choosy.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yes, It would, But i would rather have the ground frozen then let it snow, But beggars won't be choosy.......... I actually prefer the ground not be frozen. Then a long snow cover can protect the soil underneath making for a possibly lush spring although I’m not sure it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Jerry, 04-05 winter was the snowiest in my town's history, 98.6" of snow. 35" from the Blizzard of 05 and then 18" from the Boxing Day Snowstorm of 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Jerry, 04-05 winter was the snowiest in my town's history, 98.6" of snow. 35" from the Blizzard of 05 and then 18" from the Boxing Day Snowstorm of 2004. It was a great winter for sure. The January 2005 blizzard as well as multiple 6-12 events afterwards made it special. I think BOS got 86 inches that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: I actually prefer the ground not be frozen. Then a long snow cover can protect the soil underneath making for a possibly lush spring although I’m not sure it matters. Different reasons for frozen ground up this way, A third of the trail system here for riding purposes requires riding over some wetland areas so frozen is a requirement for access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: It was a great winter for sure. The January 2005 blizzard as well as multiple 6-12 events afterwards made it special. I think BOS got 86 inches that winter. Jan 2005 Blizzard is in my top 3 favorites. 30" in Cambridge/Somerville area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We need a good Dec. Yes. These backloaded winters are better than torching but not nearly as satisfying as early season snow that sticks around a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: Yes. These backloaded winters are better than torching but not nearly as satisfying as early season snow that sticks around a while. Lol....the December 2003 dump was gone by the holidays. Then cold and dry ruled although we managed to keep snow otg from dinklesh*t events. No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Lol....the December 2003 dump was gone by the holidays. Then cold and dry ruled although we managed to keep snow otg from dinklesh*t events. No thanks. Well, ok. It doesn’t always work out lol. But if we have to wait till Feb 20 to start seeing winter, we’re probably in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Just now, JBinStoughton said: Well, ok. It doesn’t always work out lol. But if we have to wait till Feb 20 to start seeing winter, we’re probably in trouble Agree! Doubt that happens. One year I remember for what you described is 1959-60. Dud winter with an epic blizzard in the early days of March and snow cover most of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: It was a great winter for sure. The January 2005 blizzard as well as multiple 6-12 events afterwards made it special. I think BOS got 86 inches that winter. They measured rather low in Jan 2005. That should be a 90+ winter at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: It was a great winter for sure. The January 2005 blizzard as well as multiple 6-12 events afterwards made it special. I think BOS got 86 inches that winter. I never saw such a violent winter storm in my lifetime, 29 years. 35" in 24 hours, Sagamore, Salem, Plymouth all saw 38" of snow, and in the winter weather statements the Blizzard warnings they mentioned that places such as Essex, Norfolk, Plymouth and Barnstable counties were the most vulnerable to getting as much as 40" of snow, an amazing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I never saw such a violent winter storm in my lifetime, 29 years. 35" in 24 hours, Sagamore, Salem, Plymouth all saw 38" of snow, and in the winter weather statements the Blizzard warnings they mentioned that places such as Essex, Norfolk, Plymouth and Barnstable counties were the most vulnerable to getting as much as 40" of snow, an amazing storm. You should have been here then (eastern). Messenger (RIP) was giving play by play from the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: You should have been here then (eastern). Messenger (RIP) was giving play by play from the cape. Damn I wish I was to be honest considering how amazing the year of 2005 was weather-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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