LoveSN+ Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 When was the last time Dec was an epic month up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: DT is going with a very snowy and cold winter for the east coast. He has February being very cold and snowy with the December , January and March being near normal. He has the east coast from the Mid Atalntic to New England being 200 percent above normal with snowfall this winter. First time ever he has done that. https://youtu.be/BsSvbF1IcXs Seems like we’d have to get about two snowstorms a week in Feb to meet his 200% of normal snow based on his AN’s and BN’s for D-M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: Seems like we’d have to get about two snowstorms a week in Feb to meet his 200% of normal snow based on his AN’s and BN’s for D-M Well a storm or 2 can put my area above normal ( NYC ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 He did a good job with the presentation. I question the severe 2012-13. My memory of that is snowy but above normal temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said: He's all confused about the solar aspect....1995-1996 and 2009-2010 were maxes not mins. I’m pretty sure they were mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Probably more of a Mid Atlantic Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Powderboy413 said: I’m pretty sure they were mins Ya 95-96 was a min. Not sure about 09-10 though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Powderboy413 said: I’m pretty sure they were mins They were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Probably more of a Mid Atlantic Winter It would need to make moderate. The paltry MEI gives me pause on that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 5 hours ago, dryslot said: There is a few duds in those analogs in that outlook for up here, I'm on the fence so far for the upcoming winter, Probably could go either way. Seems like a statement could be applied to all winters haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Seems like a statement could be applied to all winters haha.Could be, But some look better then others, This one, I’m not as confident as years past, Not often you get a top to bottom along the EC with an above avg winter, I would probably have a different feeling if I was a little further south this year, But still to early to write anything off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 5 hours ago, LoveSN+ said: When was the last time Dec was an epic month up here? Epic? For ALB I'd prob say 2007 or 2008. Though years like 2010 and 2013 weren't bad. And last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 We go big or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Could be, But some look better then others, This one, I’m not as confident as years past, Not often you get a top to bottom along the EC with an above avg winter, I would probably have a different feeling if I was a little further south this year, But still to early to write anything off. I think you should root for el nino to stay weak...if it does, you could make out with a late bloomer Miller B year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think you should root for el nino to stay weak...if it does, you could make out with a late bloomer Miller B year. I can root but it won't matter....lol, Mod-Strong would not be very good, But we will take all the Miller B's we can get, We shall see how it goes with ENSO this month, I'm skeptical though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 7 hours ago, WinterWolf said: What happened to all your optimism from a month ago(the drum beats are getting louder etc etc)...your posts are sounding more and more like somebody else who lives a lil northeast of you....you’re better than this. I started the big winter bus in July. It runs great, ready for the roads. Most pros are saying, though, that it wont be needed until after the new year, mid Jan. If that’s the case, gotta take full of advantage of every event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Fair enough. But get that engine warmed up, we’re gonna need it on the big ride this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 56 minutes ago, dryslot said: I can root but it won't matter....lol, Mod-Strong would not be very good, But we will take all the Miller B's we can get, We shall see how it goes with ENSO this month, I'm skeptical though. I really want to see the Sept/Oct MEI value....because Aug/Sept was very low...like .5. Even if ONI goes moderate....a weak MEI means we could have it behave like a weak event. See your favorite season for a good example of that. I think the stronger STJ may also hold off until late season, whereas it has taken so long for el nino to get going. I wouldn't feel too badly yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Subsurface actually correlates highest with pattern.. of MEI, SOI, Nino 3.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Subsurface actually correlates highest with pattern.. of MEI, SOI, Nino 3.4 Disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Disagree. Statistics going back to 1948 show strong correlation differences. I once researched it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 6 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Statistics going back to 1948 show strong correlation differences. I once researched it. Show me the data. MEI is specificly designed to measure the ocean and air inteface that is the very essense of ENSO. 1968-69 was a moderate el nino with a weak MEI....it was all late bloomer, miller B east season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Where did the SAI and SCE end up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Where did the SAI and SCE end up? In Judah’s ASS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: In Judah’s ASS? That’s some funny Sh*t :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Where did the SAI and SCE end up? Looks like SAI was middle of the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 24 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: Looks like SAI was middle of the pack. Heads I win, tails I win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Where do we find more than the past 10 years? Its Canadian snow cover that been impressive this year, not Eurasia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 15 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Where do we find more than the past 10 years? Its Canadian snow cover that been impressive this year, not Eurasia. Not sure exactly how his calculation is done; I'm sure it's probably in his paper. But here is a link to Eurasia snow cover for Oct from 1967-2017. 2018 is not updated yet. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/extent/snow-cover/eurasia/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 26 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: Not sure exactly how his calculation is done; I'm sure it's probably in his paper. But here is a link to Eurasia snow cover for Oct from 1967-2017. 2018 is not updated yet. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/extent/snow-cover/eurasia/10 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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