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Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019


eyewall

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not disregarding anything. I don't take modeled stratospheric changes as gospel because they are often rushed and/or greatly exaggerated.

Its akin to seeing a days 10 HECS modeled without teleconnector convergence.

Why trust it?

Same crap last January when so many folks were smoking the blocking pipe, which had no basis.

Poof it went...then I heard the same crowd criticize me for not budging on the epic March idea.

#damagedone

Props to you for sticking to your guns. I was just curious about your thinking! 

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35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I saw the Scandinavian ridge on weeklies too. If I’m not mistaken, I thought that was a decent precursor to winter blocking, but I may have pulled that out of me bum. Haven’t looked at any strat stuff other than it was cold a couple of weeks ago.

Definitely showing up on ensembles as well, both GEFS and EPS. 

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8 hours ago, LoveSN+ said:

Props to you for sticking to your guns. I was just curious about your thinking! 

Its all good. A lot of times I come off a lot more confrontational on here than I intend.

All I mean is that I don't have a lot of confidence in an early disturbed vortex, but not discounting it.

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2 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

I noted that the CP Nino events had more AK/Western Canada ridging as the north PAC low is further west. This would help out the northeast for storm threats, I believe. The "fake" -NAO in EP Nino with Canada baking from PAC flow doesn't really help things. 

Exactly.

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This should be a pretty good Nino for us. It is west based (some might argue central...but this is a purely semantical argument since it is NOT east based whatsoever) and it is pretty weak to boot.

 

This historically has been our bread and butter. If there is an ENSO state to get more aggressive and go gangbusters on the snow for SNE, this is it.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This should be a pretty good Nino for us. It is west based (some might argue central...but this is a purely semantical argument since it is NOT east based whatsoever) and it is pretty weak to boot.

 

This historically has been our bread and butter. If there is an ENSO state to get more aggressive and go gangbusters on the snow for SNE, this is it.

Right it's not as central/west as 09/10 but it's definitely more centered in 3.4/4 as opposed to 3/1.2. It's technically not a modoki because Nino 1.2 isn't below normal I think? 

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6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Right it's not as central/west as 09/10 but it's definitely more centered in 3.4/4 as opposed to 3/1.2. It's technically not a modoki because Nino 1.2 isn't below normal I think? 

I'm not sure if the east is required to be actually below normal for it to qualify as a modoki...I always thought it was just where the maximum SSTAs were located. If they were stayed central/west, then it was a modoki. But I admittedly haven't come across an overly technical definition. Just read some papers on Modoki in the past and they all seemed to focus on where the SSTA peak was and not how low or high the tails where on each side.

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33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This should be a pretty good Nino for us. It is west based (some might argue central...but this is a purely semantical argument since it is NOT east based whatsoever) and it is pretty weak to boot.

 

This historically has been our bread and butter. If there is an ENSO state to get more aggressive and go gangbusters on the snow for SNE, this is it.

I agree 100%. I just posted the same, exact thing in the main ENSO thread like an hour ago.

I guess its "hybrid" since its not the most west-based event on record?

Okay-

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Would be huge. Last season was one month too late even though you tickled 30” in that one wet snow event. 

That was blower powder he almost got 30" in. The storm before that on Mar 7-8 was the birch bender. 

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6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hey we did pretty good ourselves down our way. Tree even fell on my house.

Easton had 28 from March 1st through the end of the season. 

 

Did well, could have been epic if a couple events were a tick cooler in the mid levels. There was the one bust where 12-18” forecast produced 0.0”. At least my office closed that day.

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