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Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019


eyewall

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Color me surprised on Oct 28th that winter wont arrive for 5 to 7 weeks. Then again it already arrived for many on this forum 

And to make it clear I am not expecting winter to begin on Oct 28th.  My post was summing up in a brief manner what Cosgrove wrote in his latest newsletter. Nothing more,nothing less. 

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56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not.

Don't expect much in December.

Ray, what are your thoughts,  if you are able to talk  about this prior to your seasonal outlook , as some here are stating the Modaki El Nino is a no go,  but instead we will have a hybrid El Nino . 

You agree and does it really matter? And. can not things still change in the weeks ahead. Also, there is the debate as well about the high frequency forcing still being West based in the winter regardless.  

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Totally unconvinced Dec is a warm month, quite the opposite really. Way too much Nino references for a correlation that is weak at best with regards to the NE, temps and Dec.

Agreed. Weak-mod El Niño’s during a solar minimum depicts a trough in the east during December. Not expecting much help from the NAO domain in December but as proven before, it’s not entirely needed to provide the northeast with cold and snowy conditions.

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6 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

And to make it clear I am not expecting winter to begin on Oct 28th.  My post was summing up in a brief manner what Cosgrove wrote in his latest newsletter. Nothing more,nothing less. 

Larry thinks winter will be pretty intense after New Years.

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

During the 80s, Niño years produced ok snow fwiw.  

The best sign is how active it is.  I will feel a lot more optimistic if that high activity continues through November.

The activity reminds me of 77-78, I believe it was a moderate Nino year.  I was doing my freshman year in South Bend, where we had many fall rainstorms, but no notable cold.  When I came back to CT for Xmas, South Bend had tallied 54", with zippo in CT.   That changed in CT after Xmas break...although both locations had epic events that year.  I would not be surprised to see the Midwest get some good snows out of Nov and Dec cutters, while we wait until after the holidays.  Incidentally, South Bend had a 17" laker over Thanksgiving in 77.

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15 hours ago, Powderboy413 said:

Agreed. Weak-mod El Niño’s during a solar minimum depicts a trough in the east during December. Not expecting much help from the NAO domain in December but as proven before, it’s not entirely needed to provide the northeast with cold and snowy conditions.

 

1st, it's not a weak modoki. It's more of a hybrid. 2nd show me the analogs that have a cold east in DEC. You have 2002...and it can happen but on average any blend of Nino's will not have a mean trough in east. 

Again, I'm not saying it won't happen but research shows on average not.

 

EDIT: Good grief, I posted that on the fly last night & just read it this morning. Forgive me for how rude it sounds. Didn't mean for it to sound exactly that way. And I will say there are some signs that we could see some DEC cold this year. I was just trying to question the mean trough in east for DEC but could have been a little more tact in how I worded all of that. Again, forgive my lack of tact. 

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Cold Niño December off top of my head....2009, 2002, 1977, 1976, 1972, 1969, 1968, 1963. 

Warm....2015, 2014, 2006, 2004, 1994, 1986, 1987, 1982, 1979, 1965, 1957

id prob put years like 2004 and 1997 closer to normal.

 

The warm Decembers tend to be higher magnitude warmth than cold in Ninos. 

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26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Cold Niño December off top of my head....2009, 2002, 1977, 1976, 1972, 1969, 1968, 1963. 

Warm....2015, 2014, 2006, 2004, 1994, 1986, 1987, 1982, 1979, 1965, 1957

id prob put years like 2004 and 1997 closer to normal.

 

The warm Decembers tend to be higher magnitude warmth than cold in Ninos. 

2009 - mean trough over plains, colder west & south

1972 - mean trough over SW, ridge east

 

But overall definitely colder with those years. Timing has a lot to do with all of this also. And with this Nino being a late bloomer that may have impacts in a more non-traditional way.

I noticed that the RRWT which is a model based on rosby waves & trends etc.....has trended colder for DEC recently. So, the timing could yield a colder or at least some cold this DEC. I certainly do not think we'll see a blowtorch DEC.

 

 

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10 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

1st, it's not a weak modoki. It's more of a hybrid. 2nd show me the analogs that have a cold east in DEC. You have 2002...and it can happen but on average any blend of Nino's will not have a mean trough in east. 

Again, I'm not saying it won't happen but research shows on average not.

 

EDIT: Good grief, I posted that on the fly last night & just read it this morning. Forgive me for how rude it sounds. Didn't mean for it to sound exactly that way. And I will say there are some signs that we could see some DEC cold this year. I was just trying to question the mean trough in east for DEC but could have been a little more tact in how I worded all of that. Again, forgive my lack of tact. 

Dec 53 , 63, 76, 86

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14 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

Dec 53 , 63, 76, 86

 

63 & 76 yes. 53 & 76 no...for east. 

 

But ORH_wxman had some good years for cold DEC posted above.

Again, it's really about timing. I have a hunch we see some cold in spells in DEC. All my comments were based strictly on my analog years. Analog blend sdo not always pan out.

A good outlook will use analog blends as a tool but pity anyone that ignores trends & makes a winter outlook based "solely"on analogs. That's why its smart to wait until Thanksgiving. :)

I certainly hope for some wintry periods in DEC! It just seems fitting with the holidays

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