40/70 Benchmark Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 3 hours ago, weathafella said: I posted on FB around Labor Day 2014 that we may set records. I was extremely confident at that point but I don’t feel that way now. Muddy crystal ball so far. Yea, this season can still suck....but odds are better than normal, at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Oh you get it good just not jacking. That belongs to a 10 square mile radius in WCT only. Far SEMA is in deep deep trouble with torrential rains as every single storm track is over the elbow. Works for me up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Oh you get it good just not jacking. That belongs to a 10 square mile radius in WCT only. Far SEMA is in deep deep trouble with torrential rains as every single storm track is over the elbow. You've got trade mail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You've got trade mail. Management is discussing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 This winter is going to be fun regardless of what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 8 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: This winter is going to be fun regardless of what happens. Even if you warm and wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Even if you warm and wet? I just don't think that is the way it happens, but even in a warm and wet winter, there are threats for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I just don't think that is the way it happens, but even in a warm and wet winter, there are threats for snow. It’s winter in the NE, snow threats are real until GW submerges the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s winter in the NE, snow threats are real until GW submerges the cape. you really think that will happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 18 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: you really think that will happen? The Cape will actually be eroded away in the next 5-8 thousand years regardless of what happens with GW. If GW is bad, then it could be accelerated by a thousand years. But don't worry, the next ice age will probably help reform it not too long after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The Cape will actually be eroded away in the next 5-8 thousand years regardless of what happens with GW. If GW is bad, then it could be accelerated by a thousand years. But don't worry, the next ice age will probably help reform it not too long after. I'm not worried it happens in my lifetime Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 3 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm not worried it happens in my lifetime Will note that he said “thousands” of years. unless you are Highlander, I don’t think you will live that long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 4 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm not worried it happens in my lifetime Will And that is ALL we care about. Eff earth’s future if I ain’t on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 yup....nobody saved me any buffalo's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 5 hours ago, Dan76 said: yup....nobody saved me any buffalo's lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 Sorry guys, I did it. Bought the snow blower. It's rains to Maine this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Sorry guys, I did it. Bought the snow blower. It's rains to Maine this year! If winter is already ruined then I might as well by a new snowmobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 1 minute ago, mreaves said: If winter is already ruined then I might as well by a new snowmobile. What happens if I buy new golf clubs this fall, does that mean spring and summer are ruined next year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 29, 2018 Share Posted July 29, 2018 9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: What happens if I buy new golf clubs this fall, does that mean spring and summer are ruined next year? Spring always sucks anyways. It’s hard to ruin summer. I can golf in almost anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 4, 2018 Share Posted August 4, 2018 CanSips August update 500mb is golden for winter for eastern 1/2. Too bad its CanSips https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018080100&fh=4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 4, 2018 Share Posted August 4, 2018 4 hours ago, stadiumwave said: CanSips August update 500mb is golden for winter for eastern 1/2. Too bad its CanSips https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018080100&fh=4 While I appreciate your enthusiasm ... and would never attempt to suppress positive fervor... this doesn't look much different than then base-line, PNAP climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 5, 2018 Share Posted August 5, 2018 9 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: While I appreciate your enthusiasm ... and would never attempt to suppress positive fervor... this doesn't look much different than then base-line, PNAP climo Well to be fair...by definition, the anomalies will take care of any climo. Seeing the lower height anomalies in the southeast is a nice thing. As you know, it will help decrease the gradient issues we've had at times...obviously hypothetically here if that thing verified. That model doesn't exactly give us any reason to believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 5, 2018 Share Posted August 5, 2018 On 8/4/2018 at 11:50 AM, Typhoon Tip said: While I appreciate your enthusiasm ... and would never attempt to suppress positive fervor... this doesn't look much different than then base-line, PNAP climo I ignore 2m temp anomalies on LR models. All I'm interested in is 500mb mean pattern. However....like I said: it's Cansips & I'm not fond of the model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 EPS monthly just updated & matches CanSips but even better overall. It's a dream DJF 500mb mean for many https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/1026452522142248960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 1 hour ago, stadiumwave said: EPS monthly just updated & matches CanSips but even better overall. It's a dream DJF 500mb mean for many https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/1026452522142248960 Yes we Modiki slight Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 I definitely like the progression of Nino right now. The weakish and west-based look. Things can still obviously change, but that would be a very favorable combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 Last year we got the white Christmas. Rockwellian in homage. Crosbian in delivery. 8" of powder over night and still it snowed moderate apace come morning light. I want more of that action ...unrealistically by thanks giving. Can we get that? Only once in my life do I recall a winter so eager. 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Last year we got the white Christmas. Rockwellian in homage. Crosbian in delivery. 8" of powder over night and still it snowed moderate apace come morning light. I want more of that action ...unrealistically by thanks giving. Can we get that? Only once in my life do I recall a winter so eager. 1995. 2002 was kind of close...we got the 6-10" storm on Thanksgiving eve morning, then another 1-2" event two days later....then another 4-12" (heaviest south) on 12/5/02....though it did thaw a bit between the 12/5/02 storm and the Xmas storm (the interior mostly kept their snow OTG though aided by a 4-8" paste job for the 495 belt and outside on 12/11/02). Kind of tough to do in a Nino though....Ninos tend to want to warm us in December. Though that 2002 year proves exception to the rule. We had a few good Nino Decembers too back in the '70s. 2009 came close too, but kind of teased us mostly...we did get the White Xmas (mostly...CT River valley in MA north of CEF might object) but we didn't get the cold/snow in November at all...just the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Last year we got the white Christmas. Rockwellian in homage. Crosbian in delivery. 8" of powder over night and still it snowed moderate apace come morning light. I want more of that action ...unrealistically by thanks giving. Can we get that? Only once in my life do I recall a winter so eager. 1995. Last year was my first significant Christmas Day snowfall since 1978, in Fort Kent. Would love seeing it again. The only significant Thanksgiving Day snowfall I can recall was 3.7" in 2005. That was 7-8 hours of steady windless moderate snow with all the grandkids here to watch the flakes drifting down. (The storm also produced 2 cold-air tornados, EF-0 and EF-1, on Maine's midcoast.) Of course, the rest of 05-06 was awful, trailing only 15-16 for snowfall and had the least SDDs by a fair amount. It's the only winter that failed to have even one 6" snowfall since we moved to Maine in Jan. 1973. This past winter was a lot better, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I definitely like the progression of Nino right now. The weakish and west-based look. Things can still obviously change, but that would be a very favorable combo. Kind of a weenie question but what is meant by an weak El Nino modoki event? From what I have gathered it means cooler water in the Nino 1 and 2 regions, while the warmer water is further west toward the dateline and this causes convection to fire. I could be totally off on that but I guess what I'm asking is what makes this setup prime for SNE or has in the past thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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