Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

[powderfreak]

5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Those arrows are just awful . No one can ever read the maps . Mass confusion. Hopefully he finds something different 

The other thing is when the maps try to get too detailed.  It's hard as a hardcore hobbyist to keep the maps simple sometimes because you want to show all the little nuances, but when you are jamming 4-5 different "zones" of forecast in a small area it's just confusing.  Try not to overlap forecasts too... like a 4-8" zone next to 6-12" and then 10-14".  You could just do 4-8" and 8-14" and call it a day.

[OSUmetstud]

On 10/15/2018 at 11:20 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone know of any free graphic tools for making maps?

TIA...

Qgis is free. We use it at the office. I'm not a GIS guy so there's a bit of a learning curve but you can make some really professional looking maps with it. 

[Typhoon Tip]

there's this really good one, DOUCHE ...  It has a really good built in 'cleaner' that filters out bad data as a correction scheme -

[stadiumwave]

I really like winter. Can't help but laugh at myself. When it's a hot October I get nervous about winter. When it gets cold in October & patter looks like LR 11-15 I get nervous about winter thinking of 2011-12, which had a great October pattern. 

 

That's how subjective we can be. Objectively speaking, I've learned to deal with my subjective side with real conclusion October doesn't always mean much of anything for winter either way.  Can there be some clues? Yes...but not usually the monthly 500mb mean.

[weathafella]

49 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

I really like winter. Can't help but laugh at myself. When it's a hot October I get nervous about winter. When it gets cold in October & patter looks like LR 11-15 I get nervous about winter thinking of 2011-12, which had a great October pattern. 

 

That's how subjective we can be. Objectively speaking, I've learned to deal with my subjective side with real conclusion October doesn't always mean much of anything for winter either way.  Can there be some clues? Yes...but not usually the monthly 500mb mean.

Hard not to be optimistic.  That said, remember how 2001-02 was epic in the guidance?  

[Go Kart Mozart]

23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, far from ideal.

Someone gave me a good suggestion at the end of last year, but I didn't write it down, unfortunately

When does the outlook come out...early November?

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

When does the outlook come out...early November?

Around the 12th.

[40/70 Benchmark]

45 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Hard not to be optimistic.  That said, remember how 2001-02 was epic in the guidance?  

That said, seasonal guidance has improved over the better part of two decades.

Point remains, though...certainly.

[MJOatleast7]

51 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Hard not to be optimistic.  That said, remember how 2001-02 was epic in the guidance?  

Yes, have to avoid the one-eyed pig. Hopefully it stays away

[weathafella]

17 minutes ago, MJOatleast7 said:

Yes, have to avoid the one-eyed pig. Hopefully it stays away

I don’t think that’s an issue.  2001-02 and 2011-12 were part of multi year ninas.  Especially 2011-12.

[ORH_wxman]

32 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I don’t think that’s an issue.  2001-02 and 2011-12 were part of multi year ninas.  Especially 2011-12.

2001-2002 was basically dead neutral. But you're kind of right since it was following a 3 year La Niña. Typically we get El Niño after multiyear Nina. We didn't that year and it stunk. 

[WxBlue]

On 10/16/2018 at 3:29 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, far from ideal.

Someone gave me a good suggestion at the end of last year, but I didn't write it down, unfortunately

I think that was me. 

paint.NET is a good, simple, and free program. Less of a learning curve than GIMP. Got the job done when I created graphics back in my blogging days.

Download: https://www.getpaint.net/download.html

[stadiumwave]

6 hours ago, weathafella said:

I don’t think that’s an issue.  2001-02 and 2011-12 were part of multi year ninas.  Especially 2011-12.

 

Yes. I agree. I'm not worried at all about a warm winter based on 2011-12 reasons, if we had one it would be more warm Nino reasons. Everything points so much towards a great chance of some good winter periods in the east U.S. that it's almost to good to be true. I'm very optimistic but have a degree or 2 of pessimism & caution.

[LibertyBell]

On 10/11/2018 at 3:54 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

James, how is your novel coming along?

LMAO how come you dont post in the Red Sox thread anymore Ray?!

[LibertyBell]

On 10/11/2018 at 3:59 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree. A good deal of the the folks promulgating the use of those analogs are discarding the late 70s because it was a different era.

Folks need to be consistent with methodology.

I think many are allowing the preconceived notion of predominantely pos NAO season to bias their analog selection, which is backwards.

Let the data dictate analog set, and then refine...for instance, there are some years with a good deal of blocking, so while the season may register a pos NAO in the means, there is likely going to be a decent period of blocking. Use the analogs and ENSO climo to guide when that may be.

It's not what the predominant NAO signal for the season is per se, but how many times it changes, thats why closer to neutral NAO seem to be the best seasons for snowfall- PD2 for example occurred when the NAO was positive.  There are many examples of this.

Also the warmer than normal temps offshore do allow for quicker bombogenesis and drag in colder air from the north into these storms.  That's actually a more favorable signal for northeast snowstorms than colder than normal waters just offshore.  The continent supplies the cold air and the water supplies the moisture, and the warmer the water the better, because that means the air above that water is more moist and the water is a powder keg for big storms (like what we had last winter.)  This is exactly why the past decade has been so great for big snows.

[LibertyBell]

On 10/11/2018 at 4:09 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There are conflicting signals RE any potential SSW...but its tough to find a weak el nino event that did not feature some significant episodes of blocking...even the mild ones that raindance loves.

I'll take my chances with a Feb 2007 repeat....even Feb 1995 featured a good event.

Hell no!  Feb 2003 and Feb 2015 repeat...... GO BIG OR GO HOME!

 

[dryslot]

12 hours ago, WxBlue said:

I think that was me. 

paint.NET is a good, simple, and free program. Less of a learning curve than GIMP. Got the job done when I created graphics back in my blogging days.

Download: https://www.getpaint.net/download.html

That what i use but still trying to learn the layer curve.

[A Moonlit Sky]

13 hours ago, WxBlue said:

I think that was me. 

paint.NET is a good, simple, and free program. Less of a learning curve than GIMP. Got the job done when I created graphics back in my blogging days.

Download: https://www.getpaint.net/download.html

I can second this. Paint.net is simple and free. Hell of a lot easier to use than GIMP.

[MJOatleast7]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It's not what the predominant NAO signal for the season is per se, but how many times it changes, thats why closer to neutral NAO seem to be the best seasons for snowfall- PD2 for example occurred when the NAO was positive.  There are many examples of this.

Also the warmer than normal temps offshore do allow for quicker bombogenesis and drag in colder air from the north into these storms.  That's actually a more favorable signal for northeast snowstorms than colder than normal waters just offshore.  The continent supplies the cold air and the water supplies the moisture, and the warmer the water the better, because that means the air above that water is more moist and the water is a powder keg for big storms (like what we had last winter.)  This is exactly why the past decade has been so great for big snows.

Yup the first one went to like 949 mb or something crazy like that off HAT...actually performed as modeled

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2018_North_American_blizzard

[Baroclinic Zone]

December 2003 incoming.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It's not what the predominant NAO signal for the season is per se, but how many times it changes, thats why closer to neutral NAO seem to be the best seasons for snowfall- PD2 for example occurred when the NAO was positive.  There are many examples of this.

Also the warmer than normal temps offshore do allow for quicker bombogenesis and drag in colder air from the north into these storms.  That's actually a more favorable signal for northeast snowstorms than colder than normal waters just offshore.  The continent supplies the cold air and the water supplies the moisture, and the warmer the water the better, because that means the air above that water is more moist and the water is a powder keg for big storms (like what we had last winter.)  This is exactly why the past decade has been so great for big snows.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, it's pretty obvious.....First Law of Thermodynamics.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Minenfeld! said:

I can second this. Paint.net is simple and free. Hell of a lot easier to use than GIMP.

What about Irfanview? I find that one pretty easy to use also.

GIMP has been having some issues, a renegade developer stole the code and made a separate fork of it that's infested with adware.  He called it GIMPshop

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, MJOatleast7 said:

Yup the first one went to like 949 mb or something crazy like that off HAT...actually performed as modeled

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2018_North_American_blizzard

Yes these dynamic storms that feed off the warm water really drag in the cold air from the north (provided there is cold enough air from the north to be dragged down of course.)  The also feed on the thermocline, the temperature differences between the land and the water.

[LibertyBell]

On 10/16/2018 at 5:17 PM, Greg said:

Looks good so far but we need to get through October before things really start to fall into place.  Love the idea and look of a potential "Bread and Butter" weak El Nino pattern occurring.  Very Classic look but still of course too early. I'm very interested in how it pans out, hopefully very well.  I'll keep checking in time to time to see what the latest discussion is and how it's shaping up.

I like that October is setting up to have a predominant ridge west trough east alignment.  Even if it flips back for awhile to a ridge in the east and a trough in the west in November and December, traditionally some of our best winters are like that.  I think it was Isotherm who figured out why that is- that the pattern in October often closely aligns with what happens during the winter.  LC's forecast for the winter is also like that.

[LibertyBell]

On 10/16/2018 at 6:50 PM, powderfreak said:

The other thing is when the maps try to get too detailed.  It's hard as a hardcore hobbyist to keep the maps simple sometimes because you want to show all the little nuances, but when you are jamming 4-5 different "zones" of forecast in a small area it's just confusing.  Try not to overlap forecasts too... like a 4-8" zone next to 6-12" and then 10-14".  You could just do 4-8" and 8-14" and call it a day.

The main issue is snowfall maps by definition cant be that finely detailed.  Think about it this way- the average ratio is 10:1 so trying to separate 4-8" from 6-12" is like trying to separate 0.4"-0.8" from 0.6"-1.2"  The margin of error is actually going to be greater than the range of these "zones"!

[LibertyBell]

On 10/17/2018 at 1:47 PM, stadiumwave said:

I really like winter. Can't help but laugh at myself. When it's a hot October I get nervous about winter. When it gets cold in October & patter looks like LR 11-15 I get nervous about winter thinking of 2011-12, which had a great October pattern. 

 

That's how subjective we can be. Objectively speaking, I've learned to deal with my subjective side with real conclusion October doesn't always mean much of anything for winter either way.  Can there be some clues? Yes...but not usually the monthly 500mb mean.

I wouldn't say that October in 2011 was all that "great", it was just one storm at the end of the month.  If you look at what was going on up in the Arctic that was one of our worst in terms of how fast snowcover/arctic ice build up was occurring.
 

[LibertyBell]

23 hours ago, weathafella said:

Hard not to be optimistic.  That said, remember how 2001-02 was epic in the guidance?  

Yes but there was a lack of cold air up north in 2001-02.....in that respect it was very similar to 2011-12.  So even with a block in place you were only going to get stale air.  Funny thing about 2001-02 was that the Carolinas got a big snowstorm in January, right down to the coast.  So when we did have the blocking we had suppression and it went and gave a historic 12+ snowstorm down south.......

 

 

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

2001-2002 was basically dead neutral. But you're kind of right since it was following a 3 year La Niña. Typically we get El Niño after multiyear Nina. We didn't that year and it stunk. 

Will I think we had signs both years from the Arctic that they would be stinkers but those signs were ignored for the most part.

[dryslot]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The main issue is snowfall maps by definition cant be that finely detailed.  Think about it this way- the average ratio is 10:1 so trying to separate 4-8" from 6-12" is like trying to separate 0.4"-0.8" from 0.6"-1.2"  The margin of error is actually going to be greater than the range of these "zones"!

Not very difficult if you don't try to oversimplify things, Just work with a set of ranges and its very simple, i.e. 1-2, 2-4, 4-6, 6-8, 8-10 and so on if i want to get that defined, If not i go 2-4, 4-8, 8-12, 12-16 and so on in 4" increments between zones or areas and it works quite well, Even when you throw in the caveats of , "or more" in the favored elevated and upslope areas in some cases.