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Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019


eyewall

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2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

This is key. Not sure why so many think if you use an analog it means you think "carbon copy".

I choose several analogs. One may chosen because of QBO, another because of ENSO, another PDO, another solar. That's how I compile an analog blend.

That is what I was trying to get at....using 1978 doesn't mean necessarily that we will have a record breaking blizzard, nor a neg NAO in the seasonal mean, however it implies that at least a like period is an enhanced likelihood.

I would be very careful about going wall-wall pos NAO.

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The warm blob in the GOA & Bering Sea is really getting steamy. Can't really find any years where that whole region was a warm blob.

anomnight.10.11.2018.gif

 

Theres the GOA warm blob DJF in 2013...but ot does not compare:

 

anomnight.12.26.2013.gif

 

Of course theres 2014 where the entire east PAC was on fire:

 

anomnight.10.13.2014.gif

 

Something to keep an eye on. When there are large positive anomalies in that part of PAC during winter it's been known to bode well in east U.S.

And no...I'm not saying the warmer than average anomalies drive the pattern but rather are indicative of it. The strong NW Canadian ridging UKMET, Euro, & JAMSTEC advertise for winter probably will come to fruition.

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8 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

The warm blob in the GOA & Bering Sea is really getting steamy. Can't really find any years where that whole region was a warm blob.

anomnight.10.11.2018.gif

 

Theres the GOA warm blob DJF in 2013...but ot does not compare:

 

anomnight.12.26.2013.gif

 

Of course theres 2014 where the entire east PAC was on fire:

 

anomnight.10.13.2014.gif

 

Something to keep an eye on. When there are large positive anomalies in that part of PAC during winter it's been known to bode well in east U.S.

And no...I'm not saying the warmer than average anomalies drive the pattern but rather are indicative of it. The strong NW Canadian ridging UKMET, Euro, & JAMSTEC advertise for winter probably will come to fruition.

Ssts do not drive the pattern, but they can help to re enforce a stable atmospheric configuration....agreed.

It's another puzzle piece.

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Basically all guidance is good.  Judah worried about the lackluster beginning of snow advance in western Siberia per his Twitter.  I’m not sure the SAI is a reasonably reliable index given the sample size and recent results.  Also, with the rest of October looming it could change.

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Just now, weathafella said:

Basically all guidance is good.  Judah worried about the lackluster beginning of snow advance in western Siberia per his Twitter.  I’m not sure the SAI is a reasonably reliable index given the sample size and recent results.  Also, with the rest of October looming it could change.

North American snow, mainly in Canada, is above normal as well. Glad that Judah sticks to his guns, but you have to think with the past few winters there may be more going on than just how much/how fast snow builds up in Siberia in October.

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14 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Basically all guidance is good.  Judah worried about the lackluster beginning of snow advance in western Siberia per his Twitter.  I’m not sure the SAI is a reasonably reliable index given the sample size and recent results.  Also, with the rest of October looming it could change.

We could have the same pattern for years (raging +nao) and he’ll still claim victory. Fraud.

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17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone know of any free graphic tools for making maps?

TIA...

I use GIMP; it's got a fairly steep learning curve to understand how layers work but once you're up to speed you can make some nice looking products relatively quickly; here's an example.

4 2 18 snowmap.png

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Looks good so far but we need to get through October before things really start to fall into place.  Love the idea and look of a potential "Bread and Butter" weak El Nino pattern occurring.  Very Classic look but still of course too early. I'm very interested in how it pans out, hopefully very well.  I'll keep checking in time to time to see what the latest discussion is and how it's shaping up.

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1 hour ago, Greg said:

Looks good so far but we need to get through October before things really start to fall into place.  Love the idea and look of a potential "Bread and Butter" weak El Nino pattern occurring.  Very Classic look but still of course too early. I'm very interested in how it pans out, hopefully very well.  I'll keep checking in time to time to see what the latest discussion is and how it's shaping up.

You can just look at the title of the month’s model thread, that’s all anyone needs to know. When it’s Movember, keep the mower on standby.... and when it’s Blizzember, call your plow guy immediately, don’t even look at your local forecast. 

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