LibertyBell Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Oh that's definitely the case. I'll be captivated tracking tropical that could be a threat to the US I'll be fine with nothing imby if severe is in the region I don't care about a rain jackpot I am no more imby than when it comes to snow. I won't pull for people to fail, but I want the jackpot. Always. Fortunately, I am a person inclined to be happy so when the jackpot inevitably fails I am usually making the best of what I have. LOL that's me exactly. The funny thing is that's the first time I've been jackpotted since 2002-03. Where I live is usually a huge snowhole and severe weather hole, and all our big "jackpots" have been in high end el ninos....1982-83, then 2002-03 and finally 2015-16. Most of the other times we were on the lower end of the regional snowfall totals. As far as severe weather is concerned, the last time we had a great severe weather outbreak here was Labor Day 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Interesting Liberty references the 1994 January ice storm. Here in Boston it was snow and tons of it! That’s our #3 winter with 96.3 on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Use caution when adding any years in the late 1980's & early 1990's as analog years. Due to volcanic eruptions & ozone depletion in the northern hemisphere those years can be skewed. I know those years are becoming popular due to +NAO, but those years had more predominant +NAO for a reason....and it was not ENSO, and very minimally because of -AMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 6 hours ago, stadiumwave said: UKMET Seasonal model updated...& oh my! Similar to the European seasonal but colder in U.S. overall. Everyone east of Rockies below normal temps. Above normal precip on the east coast & STJ looks to be active. UKMET is truly a winter lovers dream in the east: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean Let me add: -EPO driven; however, noticeably more blocking as winter moves along in the AO & NAO regions. I like the idea of EPO passing the torch to NAO in the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I like the idea of EPO passing the torch to NAO in the second half. Ray, is your thinking based on the progression of the strat and a possible SSWE ( like last Feb leading into that cold and snowy March ) or other factors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I think warmer than normal SST are actually good along the coastal plain as they create bombogenesis and attract colder air from the continent down to the coast. James, how is your novel coming along? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 2 hours ago, stadiumwave said: Use caution when adding any years in the late 1980's & early 1990's as analog years. Due to volcanic eruptions & ozone depletion in the northern hemisphere those years can be skewed. I know those years are becoming popular due to +NAO, but those years had more predominant +NAO for a reason....and it was not ENSO, and very minimally because of -AMO. Agree. A good deal of the the folks promulgating the use of those analogs are discarding the late 70s because it was a different era. Folks need to be consistent with methodology. I think many are allowing the preconceived notion of predominantely pos NAO season to bias their analog selection, which is backwards. Let the data dictate analog set, and then refine...for instance, there are some years with a good deal of blocking, so while the season may register a pos NAO in the means, there is likely going to be a decent period of blocking. Use the analogs and ENSO climo to guide when that may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I like the idea of EPO passing the torch to NAO in the second half. I think we all like that idea....but the elusive NAO has some work to do in gaining back trust IMO. Looking forward to the first look through the snow globe to see where were all headed. Getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: I think we all like that idea....but the elusive NAO has some work to do in gaining back trust IMO. Looking forward to the first look through the snow globe to see where were all headed. Getting close. It did plenty of work last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 17 minutes ago, frd said: Ray, is your thinking based on the progression of the strat and a possible SSWE ( like last Feb leading into that cold and snowy March ) or other factors? There are conflicting signals RE any potential SSW...but its tough to find a weak el nino event that did not feature some significant episodes of blocking...even the mild ones that raindance loves. I'll take my chances with a Feb 2007 repeat....even Feb 1995 featured a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 Yeah ukmet was definitely pretty nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It did plenty of work last season. true, but 1 episode that has come to fruition is not enough for me to trust any modeled NAO. In fairness, you have more wiggle room and can live without a little better than us in the Northern MA. no matter, that 2m temp map outta da UK is surely something pleasing to the eyes for much of the East. Looking forward to meeting Autumn. She arrives tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There are conflicting signals RE any potential SSW...but its tough to find a weak el nino event that did not feature some significant episodes of blocking...even the mild ones that raindance loves. I'll take my chances with a Feb 2007 repeat....even Feb 1995 featured a good event. Sounds good , and to a degree, you have some model support as well from the UK and the Euro Seasonal. Seems a lot is going on right now in Siberia / sea ice, etc.... and even the structure of the PV, and maybe we get a decent look into early December in several weeks . I am excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, pasnownut said: true, but 1 episode that has come to fruition is not enough for me to trust any modeled NAO. In fairness, you have more wiggle room and can live without a little better than us in the Northern MA. no matter, that 2m temp map outta da UK is surely something pleasing to the eyes for much of the East. Looking forward to meeting Autumn. She arrives tonight. You shouldn't blindly trust modeled NAO...scrutinize WHY it may be modeled in order to determine if its viable. Anyone who did their homework and is well versed in the science should have strongly considered the idea that last March would come to fruition. But if you want to throw your St Patty's day hat on and chase every "block" of gold at the other end of the day 10 rainbow, then that is on (collective) you. Lastly, where I live is irrelevent, and plays no role in my beliefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 59 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree. A good deal of the the folks promulgating the use of those analogs are discarding the late 70s because it was a different era. Folks need to be consistent with methodology. I think many are allowing the preconceived notion of predominantely pos NAO season to bias their analog selection, which is backwards. Let the data dictate analog set, and then refine...for instance, there are some years with a good deal of blocking, so while the season may register a pos NAO in the means, there is likely going to be a decent period of blocking. Use the analogs and ENSO climo to guide when that may be. I can understand adding those years to a large analog blend, but not putting a large weight on them. Hard to imagine double weighting those years. I'd use late 1970's before I'd use late 1980's early 1990's. Again, with that said I'd use them all in a large analog blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You shouldn't blindly trust modeled NAO...scrutinize WHY it may be modeled in order to determine if its viable. Anyone who did their homework and is well versed in the science should have strongly considered the idea that last March would come to fruition. But if you want to throw your St Patty's day hat on and chase every "block" of gold at the other end of the day 10 rainbow, then that is on (collective) you. Lastly, where I live is irrelevent, and plays no role in my beliefs. You must have missed my tone. I agree with you wholeheartedly as I do NOT trust the models and to a lesser/greater degree (based on personal knowledge) do try look for ways to believe/disbelieve what the models show. I've learned lots in the last few years regarding large scale tellies etc., but still have much to learn. In fairness, i've seen many on the board wanting to believe and arguing why it should happen, to see it go poof. I referenced your location only because your latitudes gives you wiggle room....no matter what the models show, or what any of us believes. Looking forward to seeing how things take shape in the next 4-8 weeks. Cautious optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 2/3 lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 11, 2018 Share Posted October 11, 2018 The drums are getting louder, and louder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 New ecmwf seasonal is out on weather.us looks pretty sexy for all id say. Above normal precipitation for the I 95 corridor aside Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Pacific side looks really similar to 2002-2003 in terms of the mean winter anomaly placements. Atlantic side looks closer to 1977-1978 or 1969-1970. Its a pretty spectacular look...hopefully it has the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pacific side looks really similar to 2002-2003 in terms of the mean winter anomaly placements. Atlantic side looks closer to 1977-1978 or 1969-1970. Its a pretty spectacular look...hopefully it has the right idea. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 JAMSTEC just updated. Big improvement from last month. With no 500mb maps it's hard to tell. Nino is moderate hybrid-modoki. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html Overall not too bad but not as good as UKMET & EURO. We now await the JMA, which is taking longer than usual to update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 6 hours ago, pasnownut said: You must have missed my tone. I agree with you wholeheartedly as I do NOT trust the models and to a lesser/greater degree (based on personal knowledge) do try look for ways to believe/disbelieve what the models show. I've learned lots in the last few years regarding large scale tellies etc., but still have much to learn. In fairness, i've seen many on the board wanting to believe and arguing why it should happen, to see it go poof. I referenced your location only because your latitudes gives you wiggle room....no matter what the models show, or what any of us believes. Looking forward to seeing how things take shape in the next 4-8 weeks. Cautious optimism. No, I understood...I was speaking to you, not at you.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Here is what HM said to me about the analogs of the 60s and 70s, which is essentially what I have been saying: Anthony Masiello @antmasiello FollowingFollowing @antmasiello More Replying to @Ray9590 Discounting anything is silly. Every year, at the very least, can teach you about the mechanics of the governing pattern. Just because the upcoming winter might not exactly match the cold 1960s-70s, doesn't mean you can't adjust for that. 2:01 PM - 5 Oct 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 He’s right. When talking analogs, you are basically talking overall H5 look for example. Nothing wrong with that. An analog year is not supposed to mean a carbon copy of that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 One can't be anything but optimistic about this winters outlook right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 1 hour ago, dryslot said: One can't be anything but optimistic about this winters outlook right now. Stocking up on crown royal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Stocking up on crown royal.... May have to make a trip to NH and grab a few handles it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: He’s right. When talking analogs, you are basically talking overall H5 look for example. Nothing wrong with that. An analog year is not supposed to mean a carbon copy of that year. This is key. Not sure why so many think if you use an analog it means you think "carbon copy". I choose several analogs. One may chosen because of QBO, another because of ENSO, another PDO, another solar. That's how I compile an analog blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 3 hours ago, dryslot said: May have to make a trip to NH and grab a few handles it seems. I don't drink, but a nice benefit to moving to the NH border, nonetheless. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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