Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

[ORH_wxman]

20 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Sometimes when I read that type of stuff on a seasonal forecast, the user really means mixed precip events but writes ice storms for some reason.  Like a bunch of messy snow/sleet/zr events are different than just "ice storms."  But for some reason seasonal forecasts love to say icy or ice storms.

Yeah. Ice storms are really just a synonym for transition events even if it really shouldn't be used as a synonym. It's kind of analogous to the old "wintry mix" forecasts. How often did anyone actually have a wintry mix of multiple precip type for most than an hour or two? Usually not often at all but when they forecasted it, it usually was a SWFE that started as a thump of a few inches of snow, then sleet, and eventually ZR (and rain along the coast) before ending. We didn't normally have like 5 hours of sleet/snow/ZR mix. 

I can only remember a handful of storms that actually had a mixed ptype that lasted for hours and hours on end....Vday 2007 is one of them, Jan 23-24, 2017 was another (ORH hills had this little microclimate in that east flow storm that kept a prolonged sleet/snow mix). There's been a few others obviously but then bottom line is that prolonged mixed precip usually doesn't happen. 

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah. Ice storms are really just a synonym for transition events even if it really shouldn't be used as a synonym. It's kind of analogous to the old "wintry mix" forecasts. How often did anyone actually have a wintry mix of multiple precip type for most than an hour or two? Usually not often at all but when they forecasted it, it usually was a SWFE that started as a thump of a few inches of snow, then sleet, and eventually ZR (and rain along the coast) before ending. We didn't normally have like 5 hours of sleet/snow/ZR mix. 

I can only remember a handful of storms that actually had a mixed ptype that lasted for hours and hours on end....Vday 2007 is one of them, Jan 23-24, 2017 was another (ORH hills had this little microclimate in that east flow storm that kept a prolonged sleet/snow mix). There's been a few others obviously but then bottom line is that prolonged mixed precip usually doesn't happen. 

I will forever hate Vday 07 and 6 to 8 inches of the heaviest sleet snow graupel I have ever shoveled. But it was incredible

[stadiumwave]

NMME page updated today. Most of the models have more of a basin wide El Nino look. 

[raindancewx]

Listen, I could very well be wrong. I didn't mean to derail this. My sentiment with the ice storms is that a lot of the cold air that reaches the NE is shallow, and you have a lot of over running warmth above it. I remember some bad ice events growing up in NJ as a kid. My point isn't to say "only ice storms", it's just, for areas that don't see them much like New England, I think there is a higher than usual risk. 

[weathafella]

6 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Listen, I could very well be wrong. I didn't mean to derail this. My sentiment with the ice storms is that a lot of the cold air that reaches the NE is shallow, and you have a lot of over running warmth above it. I remember some bad ice events growing up in NJ as a kid. My point isn't to say "only ice storms", it's just, for areas that don't see them much like New England, I think there is a higher than usual risk. 

Where in NJ did you grow up?  I also grew up there.  WhIle New England is similar climo wise we generally get a lot more snow.   I think BOS climo is about 170% of NYC.

[tamarack]

4 hours ago, weathafella said:

Where in NJ did you grow up?  I also grew up there.  WhIle New England is similar climo wise we generally get a lot more snow.   I think BOS climo is about 170% of NYC.

Another NJ expat?  Wonder if he/she is in our age class.
I think the South may get more frequent ice storms, but for max accretion look north.  I'd also question the early/late preponderance.  The 2 worst ice storms, by far, occurred mainly on Jan. 8-9, in 1953 (NNJ) and 1998 (Maine.)  Earliest in season I recall any serious ice was mid December (1970 in NNJ, 1983 in N.Maine), latest was early March of 1967 in NNJ.

[Baroclinic Zone]

As someone who has lived in a "coastal area"( Middleborough and now Taunton) for the last 20 years, we don't get damaging ice storms.  We may get 1/4-1/3" accretion but there is really no mechanism to hold in low level cold air.  Marine layer inevitably takes over.

[butterfish55]

11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

As someone who has lived in a "coastal area"( Middleborough and now Taunton) for the last 20 years, we don't get damaging ice storms.  We may get 1/4-1/3" accretion but there is really no mechanism to hold in low level cold air.  Marine layer inevitably takes over.

We're too busy stealing everyone's snow to worry about ice storms 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, butterfish55 said:

We're too busy stealing everyone's snow to worry about ice storms 

Def been true the last decade. Probably favored to continue with a weak El Niño. 

[powderfreak]

17 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I will forever hate Vday 07 and 6 to 8 inches of the heaviest sleet snow graupel I have ever shoveled. But it was incredible

VT thanks you for your efforts.  That's still my favorite snowstorm of all-time, it was single digit temps with over 2" of QPF and high winds.  A rarity in the BTV area.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

As someone who has lived in a "coastal area"( Middleborough and now Taunton) for the last 20 years, we don't get damaging ice storms.  We may get 1/4-1/3" accretion but there is really no mechanism to hold in low level cold air.  Marine layer inevitably takes over.

And in fact, the very ageostrophic phenomenon that is primary/required for feeding in cold in the interior contributes directly to meso-low formation down over you guys ... about right on top of SE zones or thereabouts. That only causes those areas to erode even more...  

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

And in fact, the very ageostrophic phenomenon that is primary/required for feeding in cold in the interior contributes directly to meso-low formation down over you guys ... about right on top of SE zones or thereabouts. That only causes those areas to erode even more...  

Yeah, just W of the I-95 corridor as it cuts thru MA is where I'd call the dividing line between ice storm country and MEH.

[raindancewx]

For the coast it would be rain I'm sure. I can remember heading toward the beach in winter and half way to Cape May it'd just go to rain, but there was no good way to demarcate that on the map. It's kind of like how the mountains and valleys get different El Nino snow boosts out here. I do have additional notes on the slide with the map though.

My fear for Nor'easter tracks this year is actually pretty simple. The universe/weather has to take pity on the Carolinas at some point right? Huge, historical rains from Florence. More major rains from Michael. Not exactly a lot of huge flood event in NC from hurricanes in El Ninos.

The El Ninos would be 1953, 1958, 1963, 1968, 1972, 1994, 2004. Some good winters for the NE in there... a lot of crap though too. Could even through in 2016-17 since Nino 1.2 was warm that winter.

[Baroclinic Zone]

8 hours ago, butterfish55 said:

We're too busy stealing everyone's snow to worry about ice storms 

3 signs of impending epic winter snows in SE MA:

1.  bumper crop of acorns

2.  lots of road kill as they are trying to collect/save acorns up

3.  wooly bear caterpillars

[WinterWolf]

Did you mean road-kill,  When you said lots of road?

[stadiumwave]

UKMET Seasonal model updated...& oh my! Similar to the European seasonal but colder in U.S. overall. Everyone east of Rockies below normal temps. Above normal precip on the east coast & STJ looks to be active. UKMET is truly a winter lovers dream in the east:

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

 

Let me add: -EPO driven; however, noticeably more blocking as winter moves along in the AO & NAO regions. 

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

UKMET Seasonal model updated...& oh my! Similar to the European seasonal but colder in U.S. overall. Everyone east of Rockies below normal temps. Above normal precip on the east coast & STJ looks to be active. UKMET is truly a winter lovers dream in the east:

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

 

Let me add: -EPO driven; however, noticeably more blocking as winter moves along in the AO & NAO regions. 

 

 

Hard to hate that look in the East. 

 

[wxmanmitch]

I bet my new location is primo territory for bad ice storms. This spot seems to be a champion at holding low level cold since I remain fogged in pretty much every time we get WAA and it's really difficult for me to bust into SW flow. Woodford seems to mix out and warm before I do. I bet December 2008 was really bad here, but 1998 was probably to my north.

It was very hard to get much ice accretion in Lenox on the west slope as they warm up quickly due to downslope flow. It's nearly impossible to get sustained icing conditions on NW flow as usually things mix out during CAA and the precipitation flips to snow. Lenox (as with other west slope locations) seems to get a decent amount of sleet on the other hand, especially during a SWFE or coastal with a midlevel warm tongue.

[tamarack]

4 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

I bet my new location is primo territory for bad ice storms. This spot seems to be a champion at holding low level cold since I remain fogged in pretty much every time we get WAA and it's really difficult for me to bust into SW flow. Woodford seems to mix out and warm before I do. I bet December 2008 was really bad here, but 1998 was probably to my north.

It was very hard to get much ice accretion in Lenox on the west slope as they warm up quickly due to downslope flow. It's nearly impossible to get sustained icing conditions on NW flow as usually things mix out during CAA and the precipitation flips to snow. Lenox (as with other west slope locations) seems to get a decent amount of sleet on the other hand, especially during a SWFE or coastal with a midlevel warm tongue.

Check the deciduous trees in your neighborhood for past damage - broken old limb stubs and such.  Could be from early-late season wet snows endemic to elevation, but might also indicate frequency of serious ice.   12/08 should still be fairly visible, but 1/98 will be mostly obscured by now.

[frd]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

UKMET Seasonal model updated...& oh my! Similar to the European seasonal but colder in U.S. overall. Everyone east of Rockies below normal temps. Above normal precip on the east coast & STJ looks to be active. UKMET is truly a winter lovers dream in the east:

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

 

Let me add: -EPO driven; however, noticeably more blocking as winter moves along in the AO & NAO regions. 

 

 

Question - when was the last time we had the Euro and the UKMET on our side for snow and cold for a winter's seasonal forecast?  I frankly can't recall.   

[wxmanmitch]

Just now, tamarack said:

Check the deciduous trees in your neighborhood for past damage - broken old limb stubs and such.  Could be from early-late season wet snows endemic to elevation, but might also indicate frequency of serious ice.   12/08 should still be fairly visible, but 1/98 will be mostly obscured by now.

I have a number of balsams around with their tops missing. Whether that's from 12/08 I don't know. We had a bad heavy wet snowstorm in 12/14 and I think some of the balsam damage is from that event.

[tamarack]

4 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

I have a number of balsams around with their tops missing. Whether that's from 12/08 I don't know. We had a bad heavy wet snowstorm in 12/14 and I think some of the balsam damage is from that event.

I would agree.  In my experience, fir survives ice better than it deals with wet snow - the former can form an "exoskeleton" that keeps the tree intact.  Of course, if the tree is already leaning, all bets are off.  At the worst (meaning, greatest accretion) place I visited after the 1998 event, Greenwood Hill in Hebron, Maine, some of the rather few fir on that lot had been uprooted by the ice, but none had been un-topped.  OTOH, the blue bomb of March 22-23, 2001 took out the tops of perhaps 1/4 of the (very abundant) fir on my woodlot.

[LibertyBell]

On 10/8/2018 at 7:17 PM, Ginx snewx said:

I will forever hate Vday 07 and 6 to 8 inches of the heaviest sleet snow graupel I have ever shoveled. But it was incredible

and that winter is being used as an analog   We had another bad one the same winter, near St Paddy's Day 2007, 5 inches of pure sleet lol

[LibertyBell]

On 10/8/2018 at 7:03 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah. Ice storms are really just a synonym for transition events even if it really shouldn't be used as a synonym. It's kind of analogous to the old "wintry mix" forecasts. How often did anyone actually have a wintry mix of multiple precip type for most than an hour or two? Usually not often at all but when they forecasted it, it usually was a SWFE that started as a thump of a few inches of snow, then sleet, and eventually ZR (and rain along the coast) before ending. We didn't normally have like 5 hours of sleet/snow/ZR mix. 

I can only remember a handful of storms that actually had a mixed ptype that lasted for hours and hours on end....Vday 2007 is one of them, Jan 23-24, 2017 was another (ORH hills had this little microclimate in that east flow storm that kept a prolonged sleet/snow mix). There's been a few others obviously but then bottom line is that prolonged mixed precip usually doesn't happen. 

Jan 1994 had my favorite ice storm- if there can ever be such a thing- only because it was so historic to have over 2 inches of pure ice on top of a layer of 1-2 inches of sleet which was on top of 2-3 inches of snow from previous storms.  In some places it was heavy freezing rain all night with temps in the single digits!  The trees looked like they were made of crystal the next morning- luckily it was a Saturday morning!

[LibertyBell]

On 10/7/2018 at 11:49 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

I pretty much lived that season in DC. 2015-16. 

It’s a ratter.

It depends on where you were, loved it here, got a historic 30"+ snowstorm in less than 24 hours in January after a historically warm December and February had some snow events also right around the super bowl and a week after- ended up with over 40" of seasonal snowfall with average winter temp around 40 degrees.

[LibertyBell]

On 10/7/2018 at 11:43 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh...it's an entirely subjective-guided question, but, if winter was all contained inside one mega historic bomb ...say a once in a life time deal that reached exotic depths, with perfect 'snow machine' kinematics ... where the -5 SD cyclone Fuji'ed around the U/L and pummeled repeatedly across three days...  such that Worcester got 48" and Boston got 30 ... even though (hypothetically) it didn't snow at any other time that winter season, would that be fairly construed as a ratter ?

ah... heh. I love challenging "sentiment rules"

One storm can destroy a snowfall forecast we had well above snowfall in 2015-16 here but 75% of it was from one storm lol.

[LibertyBell]

On 10/7/2018 at 11:30 AM, weathafella said:

He’s got his area jacking...lol.

He always does lol

[LibertyBell]

On 10/7/2018 at 6:25 AM, moneypitmike said:

Man, those SST's are going to be causing some early season angst amongst the coastal plain.

I think warmer than normal SST are actually good along the coastal plain as they create bombogenesis and attract colder air from the continent down to the coast.

[LibertyBell]

On 10/5/2018 at 1:43 PM, OSUmetstud said:

I think there's pretty good evidence of an overall positive NAO (it doesn't mean there can't be bouts of negative.) You can use similar rationale to throw out the blockbusters of the 60s and 70s Ninos given the difference of the atmosphere and climo. 

You can look at a season like maybe 86-87 or 94-95 to see evidence of lackluster Atlantic blocking during weak Ninos. 

I don't think any of us are experts on the subject per say...its mostly a stab in the dark. 

What about 2015-16, a weaker el nino version would be colder.

[LibertyBell]

On 10/5/2018 at 11:58 AM, OSUmetstud said:

I'm going 90-91, 94-95, 02-03, 03-04, 04-05, 06-07, 14-15 for my winter analogs. I don't like anything with negative Naos in the means. Even so, there's a fairly large amount of variation across the data set from winter to winter. 

-Nick

Four of those winters were great- neg NAO or not- and two were historic!

The winters lately have been EPO driven anyway.