40/70 Benchmark Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/07/confidence-grows-for-modest-el-nino.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/07/confidence-grows-for-modest-el-nino.html There it is. Sharpen your shovels. Huge winter incoming. Lalala lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 We should be good, so long as forcing doesn't assume an east-based appeal and the NAO doesn't go nuclear positive....which go hand-in-hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/07/confidence-grows-for-modest-el-nino.html Great write-up; appropriate caveats conveyed. Let's goooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We should be good, so long as forcing doesn't assume an east-based appeal and the NAO doesn't go nuclear positive....which go hand-in-hand. Just have DIT call for east based and we in the record books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 5 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just have DIT call for east based and we in the record books. His outlooks are better than his fantasy teams lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 I’m worried it goes too robust without the NAO. Ideally we get under +1.0 in 3.4, we have modoki, NAO responds, and I wake up tomorrow to find $5 million more than today in the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 4 hours ago, weathafella said: I’m worried it goes too robust without the NAO. Ideally we get under +1.0 in 3.4, we have modoki, NAO responds, and I wake up tomorrow to find $5 million more than today in the bank. I think the ceiling is 1.2 or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the ceiling is 1.2 or so... That’s serviceable especially if NAO cooperates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 29 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s serviceable especially if NAO cooperates. I'm more concerned with modoki value, which some are saying looks good early, but I haven't looked yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 Wow, just by looking at the El Nino values expected this winter, and how it correlates to previous winters, and the SSTAs off the East Coast and the MDR in July of 04, 14 and this year, are all very similar in pattern and numbers and then those following winters corresponded to 04/05 (98") and 14/15 (75") here in Harwich, MA, those winters were neutral-weak El Nino ENSO conditions followed by a full blown El Nino the winter after, followed by La Nina the winter after that. Also in the summers of 04/14/18 the MDR is suffering a cooling trend, and the SSTA are slightly AB normal right now, which corresponds well to those in house tropical development storms of the 04/14 seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 Just judging by that alone, I know there is a lot more to the atmosphere, but with the East Coast SSTs above normal expected this winter, we could see a very intense winter with Nor'easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 13 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Just judging by that alone, I know there is a lot more to the atmosphere, but with the East Coast SSTs above normal expected this winter, we could see a very intense winter with Nor'easters. I think that will be the case more often than not moving forward, James.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think that will be the case more often than not moving forward, James.. that's probably true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 Just mega blizzards and after mega blizzards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 42 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just mega blizzards and after mega blizzards. We've seen this already over the course of the past 25 years...more heat energy=more mositure and greater potential baroclinicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We've seen this already over the course of the past 25 years...more heat energy=more mositure and greater potential baroclinicity. My kind of winters. No pennies and nickels, all dolla dolla bills on our fannies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 While Ray is right on most occasions with the warm Gulf Stream aiding in Cyclogenesis, especially on the explosive kind, as a warmer Atlantic Ocean with a cold air mass overhead will allow a storm to explode as it hits the coast, I am more inclined to think so, when the STJ and the Northern jet get involved. While there is no way to tell what the NAO will be on a day to day basis, there are signs it will be negative by monthly observations. Looking at the upper level pattern, there is a certain pattern that evolves while looking to the KUs, the upper pattern is simply amplified troughing with western CONUS ridging due to the El Nino conditions of the ENSO especially weak pattern of El Nino leading to a +PNA regime. Nor'easters love the amplified upper level pattern, upper level support is key in determining the surface outcomes in the winter time. So with the pattern like in July, with the MDR slightly warmer than average right now, and the East Coast and western Atlantic Ocean warmer than normal especially south of New Foundland and east of Cape Cod, MA, showing similar progress as to the July months of 2004 and 2014, as well as 2018, therefore the winters of 04/05, 14/15 and now 18/19 could lead to a weak El Nino regime and favor a very snowy winter for Southern New England, especially east of Springfield, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 The upper air pattern in July has zero impact on the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 Yes, SEMA winter incoming obviously...good luck forecasting storm tracks 5 months out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The upper air pattern in July has zero impact on the winter. No the SSTs over the western Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: No the SSTs over the western Atlantic Useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 5 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yes, SEMA winter incoming obviously...good luck forecasting storm tracks 5 months out. Its possible to get a general feel for it....I called a big e NE winter before 2014-2015, and the mid Atl blizzard in 2016... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its possible to get a general feel for it....I called a big e NE winter before 2014-2015, and the mid Atl blizzard in 2016... Yea. Here’s my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 I posted on FB around Labor Day 2014 that we may set records. I was extremely confident at that point but I don’t feel that way now. Muddy crystal ball so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 16 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. Here’s my call. Good call! SW CT winter incoming!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 On 7/23/2018 at 3:25 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just mega blizzards and after mega blizzards. NYC south winter Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 16 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. Here’s my call. Looks like I'm not getting jack sh1t? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 2 hours ago, weathafella said: I posted on FB around Labor Day 2014 that we may set records. I was extremely confident at that point but I don’t feel that way now. Muddy crystal ball so far. A couple of weeks ago JB hinted about a late starting winter. I do think the current overall pattern is going to be difficult to eradicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 49 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks like I'm not getting jack sh1t? Oh you get it good just not jacking. That belongs to a 10 square mile radius in WCT only. Far SEMA is in deep deep trouble with torrential rains as every single storm track is over the elbow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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