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Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019


eyewall

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Thoughts on the abnormally warm October to come, I've heard that it looks more like a La Nina pattern than a Nino.

Is this due to the relatively weak state of the Nino? 

How do we even know if it’s going to turn out Abnormally warm....it hasn’t even started yet lol.   Why, Cuz modeling last week showed AN to start???  We know how that can change.  This upcoming first week already not looking quite as warm as it did back on Wednesday and Thursday.  

Let’s see how the month shakes out at the end...and even if it is abnormally warm, I’m in Jerry’s boat on the hang over from summer, and would not let that worry me on what the upcoming winter may turn out like.  

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It’s certainly an unusually rare October pattern for an El Niño.  It’s generally troffy  in the east.  It’s more common to see November be mild and even then it’s usually more a zonal type setup.  Any sort of long duration western trof/eastern ridge pattern doesn’t happen often in any El Niño October or November.  I think late October and early November 2002 did have a 2 week stretch where a pattern like that setup though  

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3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

How do we even know if it’s going to turn out Abnormally warm....it hasn’t even started yet lol.   Why, Cuz modeling last week showed AN to start???  We know how that can change.  This upcoming first week already not looking quite as warm as it did back on Wednesday and Thursday.  

Let’s see how the month shakes out at the end...and even if it is abnormally warm, I’m in Jerry’s boat on the hang over from summer, and would not let that worry me on what the upcoming winter may turn out like.  

Incredible model support, EPS shows relentless AN heights. First 10 days of October could be +10. Not sure how you erase something like that for 2nd half. 

WAR pattern has been a dominant force and has been verifying much stronger as we get closer. Models today are actually showing the most ridging yet with mid 80s surface temps.

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23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Incredible model support, EPS shows relentless AN heights. First 10 days of October could be +10. Not sure how you erase something like that for 2nd half. 

WAR pattern has been a dominant force and has been verifying much stronger as we get closer. Models today are actually showing the most ridging yet with mid 80s surface temps.

I'd rather than July-October...as much as I hate the heat, I'd rather deal with sampazz, than 2011-2012 winter-fail.

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4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s certainly an unusually rare October pattern for an El Niño.  It’s generally troffy  in the east.  It’s more common to see November be mild and even then it’s usually more a zonal type setup.  Any sort of long duration western trof/eastern ridge pattern doesn’t happen often in any El Niño October or November.  I think late October and early November 2002 did have a 2 week stretch where a pattern like that setup though  

It's an interesting question for me (not that you or anyone asked...)

Without the gradients in the atmosphere, how does the ENSO state physically force or drive anything to happen at all? ...maybe why the present look doesn't reflect a fledgling El Nino...?

The present ENSO state is not hugely biased in the warm phase, either. Meanwhile, the total hemispheric atmosphere is still not yet established much compression of the ambient heights due to seasonal cooling ... where subsequently the southern latitudes naturally resist --> exposing the heat source. Once that takes place, it "presses" - for lack of better word - and the tropical forcing kicks in ..viola, pattern adjusts accordingly.  

 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Incredible model support, EPS shows relentless AN heights. First 10 days of October could be +10. Not sure how you erase something like that for 2nd half. 

WAR pattern has been a dominant force and has been verifying much stronger as we get closer. Models today are actually showing the most ridging yet with mid 80s surface temps.

Mmm .. not sure on either, myself. 

I don't see how "the models" would be indicating mid 80s with high pressure strung out N of ORD-BOS latitude across S and SE Canada the whole way.  Would tend to undercut those warm looking heights and steeply invert the lower troposphere. 

Having said that... the models and perhaps ultimately verification, may show that the anticyclonic action was/is over-done... but as of right now, synoptic reasoning doesn't support mid 80s here.  But, perhaps you don't mean regions along our latitude -

 

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you folks are waaaay too preoccupied/obsessed with the 'ridge' complexion and not nearly taking any sort of Meteorological tact with your analysis. 

It's not a warm week.  For some reason ..that message is not resonating with folks ... or being outright ignored. But, it's not going to be very warm anomalous at the surface with that weather pattern this week.  

In fact, the weather is more likely to be utterly uninspired and well ...boring.   but, this is a seasonal outlook thread so -   

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27 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Any thoughts on the NAO? Its been so positive lately basically going back to 2011. The Atlantic SST distribution supports positive in the winter and the Strat temps are very cold from 1 to 10mb. 

El Nino and low solar support negative. 

Maybe it's like last winter and leans negative for a month or so? If I had to WAG, I would lean more positive with maybe a period in the mid to late winter where it goes negative. 

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36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I guess I can put this here, but neat PDF on the big 10/4/87 snow event in western NE. Nothing for Tolland though.  Even SW CT got snow.

 

http://www.wcsu.edu/weather/research_papers/Third_Tri_State/Frank.pdf

Wasn’t the following winter terrible? I don’t recall any memorable events in 87/88. 

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