Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

[SnowGoose69]

On 9/13/2018 at 6:39 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Solar min. qbo went from positive in the summer into fall then nuetral at the start of winter, to negative JFM. -5 to -10.

 

If I remember right the stratosphere was an absolute ice box in October and November which likely led to the NAO problems that winter.  It was also insanely dry considering it was an El Niño and it continued straight through the next summer.  October 94 - September 95 has to be one of the driest 12 month stretches for most of the northeast in the last 50 years 

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw, NCDC's https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover source ...

...comparing 2017's first two weeks of September to 2018 indicates that this year, this source observes greater NH deposition of land-snow at higher latitudes. We appear more on par with the previous Sept 1-14, 2016 (didn't go further back in time).

It may not mean much; obviously...two weeks ain't a whole helluva lot of data to stake claims over.  But, personally I am a big proponent of "momentum" in these system monitoring efforts.  When end summer into autumn snow cover is at a premium vs in positive anomalies, those biases seem to parlay/continue into mid latitudes during ensuing DJF.  This is just based upon experience; however, there are a plethora of refereed papers out there that suggest the same...  

So, this will be something I intend to keep an eye on... and in fairness, as implied there, it may settle back to 2017's rate of recovery, but it may also be the onset of a robuster recovery season. 

 

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiw, NCDC's https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover source ...

...comparing 2017's first two weeks of September to 2018 indicates that this year, this source observes greater NH deposition of land-snow at higher latitudes. We appear more on par with the previous Sept 1-14, 2016 (didn't go further back in time).

It may not mean much; obviously...two weeks ain't a whole helluva lot of data to stake claims over.  But, personally I am a big proponent of "momentum" in these system monitoring efforts.  When end summer into autumn snow cover is at a premium vs in positive anomalies, those biases seem to parlay/continue into mid latitudes during ensuing DJF.  This is just based upon experience; however, there are a plethora of refereed papers out there that suggest the same...  

So, this will be something I intend to keep an eye on... and in fairness, as implied there, it may settle back to 2017's rate of recovery, but it may also be the onset of a robuster recovery season. 

 

Too early for relevance 

[SnowHole413]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Too early for relevance 

Not necessarily. It very well “could” be the onset of a more robuster recovery season. Solar minimum could be a reason to this late summer snow cover across the higher latitudes. 

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, Powderboy413 said:

Not necessarily. It very well “could” be the onset of a more robuster recovery season. Solar minimum could be a reason to this late summer snow cover across the higher latitudes. 

Imho that’s hogwash.

[stadiumwave]

Atmosphere thinks it's El Nino & forcing is in CP #modoki

 

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1040922607393157121?s=19

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

Atmosphere thinks it's El Nino & forcing is in CP #modoki

 

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1040922607393157121?s=19

I've been telling people this who are trying to claim el nino is going to be a fake...Ventrice's tools have been screaming modest el nino all fall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think that image is congruent with the modoki index, which is moderately in modoki territory. Not extreme like 2009, but more like 2014 and 1994.

[frd]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that image is congruent with the modoki index, which is moderately in modoki territory. Not extreme like 2009, but more like 2014 and 1994.

Ray, do you believe the next steep drop in the SOI in a few days is going to really put the El Nino on firm footing?  Also,  seems that sub surface warmth is rising up and expanding. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, frd said:

Ray, do you believe the next steep drop in the SOI in a few days is going to really put the El Nino on firm footing?  Also,  seems that sub surface warmth is rising up and expanding. 

 

 

TBH, I haven't looked at much RE winter this past week because of Florence, but it should.

I'm going to start delving into other aspects aside from ENSO soon.

[frd]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

TBH, I haven't looked at much RE winter this past week because of Florence, but it should.

I'm going to start delving into other aspects aside from ENSO soon.

Sounds good,  the solar impact has me the most intrigued followed second by the QBO. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, frd said:

Sounds good,  the solar impact has me the most intrigued followed second by the QBO. 

I had always thought that solar min was next year, but maybe semantics.. 

[Typhoon Tip]

23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had always thought that solar min was next year, but maybe semantics.. 

yeah... the nadir may not be as important as the era for solar stuff...

ultra-violet radiation from the sun is never 0... it's a matter of whether the flux is below or above some threshold.   certain wave lengths of the electro mag spectrum (to which ultra-v obviously is a part...) break about atmospheric aerosols ... those radiations are more abundant during more active/max phases of the sun ...blah blah...  the key there is that build-up of those effects the temperature conductance at high altitudes --> warming in the stratosphere...  "sudden" or not, not withstanding - but it all correlates with -AO in the means (apparently) ...throwing all kinds of wrenches into the gear cogs of the overly ENSO reliant - but this latter part is my opinion, admittedly

but, said thresholds proooobably don't need to be at the nadir(max) in either case...   nature doesn't work that way - it's not like these systems in nature only trigger at some critical quantum amount of something and then drills a cryospheric apocalypse into Chicago

[frd]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah... the nadir may not be as important as the era for solar stuff...

ultra-violet radiation from the sun is never 0... it's a matter of whether the flux is below or above some threshold.   certain wave lengths of the electro mag spectrum (to which ultra-v obviously is a part...) break about atmospheric aerosols ... those radiations are more abundant during more active/max phases of the sun ...blah blah...  the key there is that build-up of those effects the temperature conductance at high altitudes --> warming in the stratosphere...  "sudden" or not, not withstanding - but it all correlates with -AO in the means (apparently) ...throwing all kinds of wrenches into the gear cogs of the overly ENSO reliant - but this latter part is my opinion, admittedly

but, said thresholds proooobably don't need to be at the nadir(max) in either case...   nature doesn't work that way - it's not like these systems in nature only trigger at some critical quantum amount of something and then drills a cryospheric apocalypse into Chicago

I wonder as we near the solar min,  or as you state we are close enough already,  whether in the winter season the lower solar impact feeds back and supports more expansive snow cover growth . 

Or, whether as you state the connection between aerosols and the high lattitudes is more so a trigger. ( as in the -AO )  causing a snow advance futher South in the lattitudes.  

I also wonder if there is any meaningful association to SSWE and the lower solar backdrop/ozone/aerosols, etc.  I know we have gone a number of years since this past winter without a true SSWE.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Will, can you post that image of the Dec 2007 coastal front that you have?

I want to see where it set up in relation to may new locale this winter...thanks.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Will, can you post that image of the Dec 2007 coastal front that you have?

I want to see where it set up in relation to may new locale this winter...thanks.

Haha, it's funny because every single one of us replay past events to see how we would've fared if we move.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Haha, it's funny because every single one of us replay past events to see how we would've fared if we move.

Fitting that I closed out my long and storied weenie career in Wilmington with the coveted KU jack zone.

 

[powderfreak]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fitting that I closed out my long and storied weenie career in Wilmington with the long coveted KU jack zone.

 

I'm on mobile, can't see locations.  Where'd ya move to?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, powderfreak said:

I'm on mobile, can't see locations.  Where'd ya move to?

I'm moving to Methuen in October or November...offer accepted last night.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Will, can you post that image of the Dec 2007 coastal front that you have?

I want to see where it set up in relation to may new locale this winter...thanks.

I think you mean Dec 2008? I'll post both....first one is Dec 2008 and the 2nd one is Dec 2007...the only issue is that the Dec 2007 one was still morning, and not at the max extent northwest:

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 here and 14 in Methuen....sweet.

Thanks.

[weathafella]

Ray factoring snow in the house purchase...oh wait....

[Damage In Tolland]

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think you mean Dec 2008? I'll post both....first one is Dec 2008 and the 2nd one is Dec 2007...the only issue is that the Dec 2007 one was still morning, and not at the max extent northwest:

 

 

We sit perfect 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Will, can you post that image of the Dec 2007 coastal front that you have?

I want to see where it set up in relation to may new locale this winter...thanks.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So many buns for that post. 

[Great Snow 1717]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm moving to Methuen in October or November...offer accepted last night.

Nearly everyone I know who lives in Methuen is moving to another city/town or thinking of it. And that includes me. The city is a political circus like no other. And there is talk of a prop 21/2 override which will lead to even higher property evaluation and taxes, 

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Nearly everyone I know who lives in Methuen is moving to another city/town or thinking of it. And that includes me. The city is a political circus like no other. And there is talk of a prop 21/2 override which will lead to even higher property evaluation and taxes, 

Lol way to rain on the guy's parade........

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Nearly everyone I know who lives in Methuen is moving to another city/town or thinking of it. And that includes me. The city is a political circus like no other. And there is talk of a prop 21/2 override which will lead to even higher property evaluation and taxes, 

Yea, its def. a step down from Wilmington....I don't think I'll be there the rest of my life. 

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Nearly everyone I know who lives in Methuen is moving to another city/town or thinking of it. And that includes me. The city is a political circus like no other. And there is talk of a prop 21/2 override which will lead to even higher property evaluation and taxes, 

yeah, but there is more snow in Methuen. it's a wash. 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think you mean Dec 2008? I'll post both....first one is Dec 2008 and the 2nd one is Dec 2007...the only issue is that the Dec 2007 one was still morning, and not at the max extent northwest:

 

 

Not to get into any big digression over it but ...were those during particular events?  

I mean I'm virtually certain they were... You almost have to have something going on to focus low level features into that sort of construct.  ... 

I guess what I'm after is whether those areas in Essex, Suffolk and interior SE Mass that were still 30 to 32 ...what kind of p-type occurred there.  I wonder if that was big aggegrate on one side, vs powder out west...  barring a 700 mb warm layer carpet bombing the region for other reasons..