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Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

eyewall

By eyewall,
in New England

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Randy4Confluence said:

Seems that the Euro seasonals are in parallel to what the Old Farmers Almanac is calling for ( A thrill for the EC).

Horrible news particularly for So Cal. 

I feel your pain.  Probably was not too far from where you’re posting as I read headlines from February 1978.

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Randy4Confluence

Randy4Confluence

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, weathafella said:

I feel your pain.  Probably was not too far from where you’re posting as I read headlines from February 1978.

Yeah I remember you mentioning a 15 year haitis in So CA?

My consolation is living in No Cal ( Sac Vallley 75 miles from the Sierres)  where the winters can give cold ( relatively) nights and robust Pacific rain storms with colder temps and lots of wind, and an excuse to put on sweaters, build fires, and make some hot chocalate. Snow is impossible though being in the valley ... although every 10 years Sacramento may see a flake or two. As a snow weenie, I suppose I'm adding polish to pig turd, but admittedly, it's hard not to like No Cali. for many reasons. It hasn't been as bad as I thought really. We come back to Mass. for the holidays ( family) so thats always something to look forward to. 

 I'll certainly be rooting for some good storms for you, not to mention tracking them. ☺

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Randy4Confluence said:

Yeah I remember you mentioning a 15 year haitis in So CA?

My consolation is living in No Cal ( Sac Vallley 75 miles from the Sierres)  where the winters can give cold ( relatively) nights and robust Pacific rain storms with colder temps and lots of wind, and an excuse to put on sweaters, build fires, and make some hot chocalate. Snow is impossible though being in the valley ... although every 10 years Sacramento may see a flake or two. As a snow weenie, I suppose I'm adding polish to pig turd, but admittedly, it's hard not to like No Cali. for many reasons. It hasn't been as bad as I thought really. We come back to Mass. for the holidays ( family) so thats always something to look forward to. 

 I'll certainly be rooting for some good storms for you, not to mention tracking them. ☺

Sacramento is an under the radar great town!  Close enough to the Bay Area without the ridiculous sticker price.  

I wont go back though unless my daughter ends up there which would mean all 3 kids in California.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Some of the hill towns not too far east of SAC can get a big storm or two almost every winter (like 1500-2000 feet elevation). But yeah, in the valley it's really hard. Even when you have like -8C 850 temps, that lower couple thousand feet of PAC marine boundary layer is just so overwhelming. 

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Randy4Confluence

Randy4Confluence

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some of the hill towns not too far east of SAC can get a big storm or two almost every winter (like 1500-2000 feet elevation). But yeah, in the valley it's really hard. Even when you have like -8C 850 temps, that lower couple thousand feet of PAC marine boundary layer is just so overwhelming. 

Hi. Yeah, even Auburn ( Maybe 25 miles from here towards the Sierras) usually sees a few flakes.

 

Aside from being at such a low sea-level, I read that the Sierras I act as a block from allowing the continental polar invasions from making it into the Western side of those mountains ... like the Sac Valley.

 

So, we'll be bulldozing the Sierras I've decided. ☺

 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, Randy4Confluence said:

Hi. Yeah, even Auburn ( Maybe 25 miles from here towards the Sierras) usually sees a few flakes.

 

Aside from being at such a low sea-level, I read that the Sierras I act as a block from allowing the continental polar invasions from making it into the Western side of those mountains ... like the Sac Valley.

 

So, we'll be bulldozing the Sierras I've decided. ☺

 

Take frequent weekends in Tahoe.   I’ve yold this story before- Veterans Day weekend 1985-we went up to June Lake up around 8,000 feet.  A system was coming on and the day before had it plenty cold.  That Saturday night/Sunday brought 30 inches in about 12 hours.  Among my better snow experiences.

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stadiumwave

stadiumwave

Posted
Posted

I know most are focused Florence right now & rightfully so. But holy moly on JMA Seasonal for DEC!! Average Oct, warm Nov. BUT DEC...robust -EPO, -NAO (blocking mostly around Davis Strait). Looks very similar to updated Euro:

The entire winter looks NUTS also. Look at 3 month first & you can change through individual OCT/NOV/DEC.

 

Then you can click on DEC-FEB mean on first page of link. Good stuff...if you like winter! Winter mean has robust -EPO, -NAO, -AO combo.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

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JBinStoughton

JBinStoughton

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

I know most are focused Florence right now & rightfully so. But holy moly on JMA Seasonal for DEC!! Average Oct, warm Nov. BUT DEC...robust -EPO, -NAO (blocking mostly around Davis Strait). Looks very similar to updated Euro:

The entire winter looks NUTS also. Look at 3 month first & you can change through individual OCT/NOV/DEC.

 

Then you can click on DEC-FEB mean on first page of link. Good stuff...if you like winter! Winter mean has robust -EPO, -NAO, -AO combo.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

I only get Oct to Dec. where are you selecting beyond dec?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I believe there is a "relevancy curve" that should apply to the ENSO  

This hypothetical curve is plotted over time, as an on-going arithmetic balancing against the polar-directed indexes.  Over the next 15 or so years ... the AO and subordinate EPO and NAO regions become(became) more relevant to governing winter temperature anomaly distribution.  This is cyclic... approximated in length but multi-decadal in oscillation - we are presently escaping a zonal predominant tendency near 60 N and replacing it with an opposing one. 

That back-seats the ENSO more so now than it did in the 1990s (but even then, when NAO decided to tank...we got the 1995-1996) ...  

Amid all that supposition lurks the plausibility that the ENSO isn't the whole story ...People acknowledge that, but then given time the same old reliance on the ENSO creeps back into the forefront of the published considerations for season temperature and precipitation bias'..  I think that's safer as a canvas during some generations, but when the polarward domain spaces are negative, ..not so much. 

Right now I would put this winter's hypothetical relevance at less than median regarding the ENSO's ability to govern much.  That is based upon several reasoning factors:

1 In the first place, and for the purpose of argument... the ENSO appears destined for a weaker complexion than many modeling sources had indicated.  It's still not too late for some Kelvin wave to monster through and finally do the trick but ... it doesn't 'feel' like the Pacific is going into a moderate warm anomaly and I don't really think that neutral-warm scenarios are very potent correlators because it's too close to 0.0 to apply much skill.  Could be wrong ... but with our ginormous data set of a whopping 200 or so years of Terran history with ...well, science of any decent kind of that matter, I'll hedge my bets the a < moderate anything is open to debate..

2 ... as recent winters have shown... when the AO is negative and the North Pacific enters the AA phase, forget it!  ENSO can go f itself...  It means less for our latitude when preominated and crushed out of existence by the arctic hammer.  I understand that the vagarious nature of these polarward indexes - or even their causal root-uncertainties - makes it difficult if not impossible to be seasonal reliant upon them showing up positive(negative) one way or the other but touch nuts.  At least NCEP knows and embraces this facet ... as recent seasonal outlooks released per autumns dating back some five year's worth ... have routinely stated that from the NP-GL-OV-NE regions, the AO is not predictable and that their outlook has that built in caveat emptor - in so many words.  

Whenever I hear a seasonal outlook that discusses only the ENSO ...I stop reading.  And am proven right to have done so... every time. 

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stadiumwave

stadiumwave

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

I know most are focused Florence right now & rightfully so. But holy moly on JMA Seasonal for DEC!! Average Oct, warm Nov. BUT DEC...robust -EPO, -NAO (blocking mostly around Davis Strait). Looks very similar to updated Euro:

The entire winter looks NUTS also. Look at 3 month first & you can change through individual OCT/NOV/DEC.

 

Then you can click on DEC-FEB mean on first page of link. Good stuff...if you like winter! Winter mean has robust -EPO, -NAO, -AO combo.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

 

The only analog DJF 500mb pattern I could find close was a poor man's blend of 1977-78, 2009-10, 2014-15. Again...a poor man's blend, & we're talking 500mb...NOT 2m temp anomalies.

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Randy4Confluence

Randy4Confluence

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, weathafella said:

Take frequent weekends in Tahoe.   I’ve yold this story before- Veterans Day weekend 1985-we went up to June Lake up around 8,000 feet.  A system was coming on and the day before had it plenty cold.  That Saturday night/Sunday brought 30 inches in about 12 hours.  Among my better snow experiences.

Nice. Its a fun place to go for sure with casinos, and othet frolic nearby. A co worker of mine was married in one part of tbe Sierras in July and told me there was still snow cover around there! 

 

Curious, when you travel to Tahoe, which airport do you fly into?

And yes, sacramento is a hidden treasure wedged between the Sierras and the Bay area. We've made frequent trips to both places, which are only like 75 miles east or west of here respectively. 

Not to say I don't miss being in Mass. during winter, which I do. But at least it's not LA or Miami around here in the winter!  

 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

The only analog DJF 500mb pattern I could find close was a poor man's blend of 1977-78, 2009-10, 2014-15. Again...a poor man's blend, & we're talking 500mb...NOT 2m temp anomalies.

There wouldn't be an article of clothing to be found for months among this entire subforum.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's temping to go '94-'95 because there's such a positive consensus of a big winter up here.  

Lol ah hahaha...

Man, ...'magine the payout on this sucker ?  If you went wallet ballz to wall on that call compared to the number of people that have sipped the cool-aide and somehow managed to morph a milder than normal forecast from every other source into the tenor of this thread ... Oh - man

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Lol ah hahaha...

Man, ...'magine the payout on this sucker ?  If you went wallet ballz to wall on that call compared to the number of people that have sipped the cool-aide and somehow managed to morph a milder than normal forecast from every other source into the tenor of this thread ... Oh - man

It would nicely fit the trend of mother nature sticking it to everyone just when we think we can figure it out. Lol. I remember the feeling before the 2001-2002 winter (back when seasonal forecasting was just hitting a little more mainstream in the weather community) was of epic cold/snow....it was as if everyone wanted to parlay the 2000-2001 on top of 2001-2002 except just make it even more extreme. Then of course the exact opposite happened....ha.

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