Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I'm assuming they are expecting the AO/NAO to stay strongly positive. 

That has happened a lot recently but we keep getting away with it because of a good PAC. Though last winter, we finally had a big sustained -NAO in March which played a large part in the big snowstorms that month.  

I def would prefer not to keep gambling that a +AO/NAO will still work out for us. 

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I'm assuming they are expecting the AO/NAO to stay strongly positive. 

So just to clarify-OFA uses astrology as their basis.  No joke.

[SnowHole413]

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, weathafella said:

So just to clarify-OFA uses astrology as their basis.  No joke.

I never said I trusted the FA forecast. All I said was that I am assuming the FA thinks the AO/NAO is going to remain strongly positive. 

 

Right now based on what is happening,  and what has happened for the last several months,and the forecast for the both the short term and long term, would you bet on cold and snowy or mild conditions for the winter?

[weathafella]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

I never said I trusted the FA forecast. All I said was that I am assuming the FA thinks the AO/NAO is going to remain strongly positive. 

 

Right now based on what is happening,  and what has happened for the last several months,and the forecast for the both the short term and long term, would you bet on cold and snowy or mild conditions for the winter?

There is no correlation between now and winter.  Based on ENSO leading in I’m cautiously optimistic but I wouldn’t forecast either until mid October.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, Powderboy413 said:

So essentially they are calling for normal to below normal cold for much of the country. I did not realize JB has a side gig.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

There is no correlation between now and winter.  Based on ENSO leading in I’m cautiously optimistic but I wouldn’t forecast either until mid October.

I knew you would be leaning towards cold and snowy lol

[weathafella]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

I knew you would be leaning towards cold and snowy lol

Why wouldn’t you with a weak Modoki?

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, tamarack said:

68-69 here included Boston's 100-hour storm, which dumped 43" at the nearby long term co-op, and brought snow depth to 84".  79-80 (and the following winter) are the two least snowy of 125 winters at that co-op.  Weak ninos have averaged AN for snow here, but also show the greatest variability of any ENSO condition.

Wow. 68-69 was a terrible Winter here. As a matter of fact, it was the last Winter where Detroit saw less than 20" of snow (only 17.1" fell). And it was not that it was a warm Winter either, just boring city. That Winter aside, the other years show a pretty good consensus for weak ninos being good winters here. However the winters themselves are quite different from each other, despite the end result being good. Which is why analogs are always just taken with a grain of salt.  I give 79-80 a pass, because it was coming off a stretch of 6 straight harsh winters lol.

[michsnowfreak]

6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

So essentially they are calling for normal to below normal cold for much of the country. I did not realize JB has a side gig.

 The other post must have been referring to the old farmer's almanac with the yellow cover.

[Great Snow 1717]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Why wouldn’t you with a weak Modoki?

Are you completely disregarding the current state of the AO/NAO?

[Great Snow 1717]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That has happened a lot recently but we keep getting away with it because of a good PAC. Though last winter, we finally had a big sustained -NAO in March which played a large part in the big snowstorms that month.  

I def would prefer not to keep gambling that a +AO/NAO will still work out for us. 

I agree with you. Sooner or later the "gamble" is going to go bust. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Are you completely disregarding the current state of the AO/NAO?

Yes.  But if we’re heading to late fall put the brakes on.

[Great Snow 1717]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 The other post must have been referring to the old farmer's almanac with the yellow cover.

Correct

[Baroclinic Zone]

15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Why wouldn’t you with a weak Modoki?

I don't even know what this means.  Is this some new term? Like MJO was about 10 years ago?

[weathafella]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

I don't even know what this means.  Is this some new term? Like MJO was about 10 years ago?

Basically a more west based weak nino which tends to give us good winters.  No guarantees but that seems to be where we’re heading.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

What does this matter for winter?

33 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Are you completely disregarding the current state of the AO/NAO?

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What does this matter for winter?

If the AO/NAO was currently negative many people here would be touting it as a good sign for the upcoming winter. The vast majority of people here want a cold and snowy winter. As I do. The difference is that I like to consider all things which may influence the winter. There is no denying that the positive AO/NAO has played a significant role in the heat this summer. And time will tell if the AO/NAO remains as strongly positive  as we approach the late fall and winter.

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

If the AO/NAO was currently negative many people here would be touting it as a good sign for the upcoming winter. The vast majority of people here want a cold and snowy winter. As I do. The difference is that I like to consider all things which may influence the winter. There is no denying that the positive AO/NAO has played a significant role in the heat this summer. And time will tell if the AO/NAO remains as strongly positive  as we approach the late fall and winter.

What was the AO/NAO in spring?  Did it foretell this summer?  I certainly wouldn’t want a summer negative because the chance of that holding for 6+ months isn’t high.  I just don’t think there’s much correlation but maybe someone can get the stats and help us either strengthen the argument or put it to rest.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

If the AO/NAO was currently negative many people here would be touting it as a good sign for the upcoming winter. The vast majority of people here want a cold and snowy winter. As I do. The difference is that I like to consider all things which may influence the winter. There is no denying that the positive AO/NAO has played a significant role in the heat this summer. And time will tell if the AO/NAO remains as strongly positive  as we approach the late fall and winter.

I haven’t seen any articles, research, or posts from pros here that correlate ao/nao summer behavior to winter. 

[CoastalWx]

43 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I haven’t seen any articles, research, or posts from pros here that correlate ao/nao summer behavior to winter. 

We’ve had recent -NAO summers that have turned raging +NAO in winter. Small sample size, but I don’t think there is a significant correlation overall. 

[ORH_wxman]

I ran a correlation of NAO on summer to winter many years back on eastern...there wasn't much correlation. I did find that excessively strong -NAOs in summer did tend to produce -NAO winters but it was a weak relationship. I haven't updated the numbers since about 2010 but I doubt they would change much since the sample was like 70-80 years. 

Id place much more stock in ENSO at the moment. But given that we live in New England, ENSO is a pretty weak correlation too. It's better than summer AO/NAO state though....and a weak El Niño tends to be a sweet spot for SNE in particular. It makes sense from a physical standpoint...you have a bit of extra positive PNA tendency and a little extra STJ action but since ENSO is weak, the northern stream stays dominant which favors New England-centric systems. 

[snowman21]

6 hours ago, Powderboy413 said:

Can't decide whether it's better to be in the dark blue, light green, or the purple they have over us. What's the difference between teeth-chattering cold, plentiful snow and biting cold, snowy?

[Hoth]

47 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

Can't decide whether it's better to be in the dark blue, light green, or the purple they have over us. What's the difference between teeth-chattering cold, plentiful snow and biting cold, snowy?

"Cold and white" doesn't necessarily describe snow. It could just describe the demeanor of New England's historically pale-skinned and puritanical natives during those months.

[ORH_wxman]

On 8/27/2018 at 3:23 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Weak El Niño bodes well for E SNE. Hard to find ones that didn't work out there...

2014-2015

2004-2005

1977-1978

1976-1977

1969-1970

1968-1969

1951-1952

 

You could argue 51-52 was kind of a bust for BOS but it was epic for the Cape. Also, the newer update technically puts 79-80 as a weak El Niño (which was an awful year) as well as some bizarre looking 1950s years, but they don't follow the usual progression of enso so those don't look very valid...too reliant on the isolated moving averages. 

But overall, we have a really good shot right now as long as weak Niño stays on track. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Farmers Almanac is out ... and for it's invaluable contribution they are calling for a mild putrid winter - 

It's like they waited for Ray's write-up and then trolled. 

ha

I just view it for amusement.....it ranks on par with most of James' posts as far as consideration.

BTW, I know you were messing....but my post was purely informative...just distinguishing between modoki and canonical, and what it could mean.

I don't make a call until the second week of November...anything sooner is a fool's errand.

I have early ideas, though.

[512high]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just view it for amusement.....it ranks on par with most of James' posts as far as consideration.

BTW, I know you were messing....but my post was purely informative...just distinguishing between modoki and canonical, and what it could mean.

I don't make a call until the second week of November...anything sooner is a fool's errand.

I have early ideas, though.

Your last sentence the words "early ideas"......on another swamp *ss day, we want more "ideas"! Good write up .....

[dryslot]

13 hours ago, snowman21 said:

Can't decide whether it's better to be in the dark blue, light green, or the purple they have over us. What's the difference between teeth-chattering cold, plentiful snow and biting cold, snowy?

About 12"

[Great Snow 1717]

13 hours ago, snowman21 said:

Can't decide whether it's better to be in the dark blue, light green, or the purple they have over us. What's the difference between teeth-chattering cold, plentiful snow and biting cold, snowy?

Biting cold is when your teeth are chattering so badly from the cold that it makes you want to bite someone.

[Typhoon Tip]

21 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

That has happened a lot recently but we keep getting away with it because of a good PAC. Though last winter, we finally had a big sustained -NAO in March which played a large part in the big snowstorms that month.  

I def would prefer not to keep gambling that a +AO/NAO will still work out for us. 

Fwiw - according to the Climate Diagnostic Center's cross-correlation table...  their linear correlations between indices -

The PNA and NAO have close to an N/S ...noisy correlation starting Dec...but... it gets a bit brighter toward February's, when negative correlation coefficient becomes fairly robust around -.25. 

In straight up stat definitions, that's weakly correlated... however, we are dealing in atmospheric analysis, and with its intrinsic noisy domain of various arguing mass-fields at all times, I almost wonder if that ".25 ness" might be more significant than the standard paradigm.  Either way, there is semblance there that they tend to move opposite of one another as the winter gets into its wheel-house 45 days ...which I consider to be about Jan 15 to March 1 for snow barring nit picky neurotic decomposition of the data to somehow extend winter indefinitely...  

Back handed snark aside... the NAO and PNA are spatially not very similar (I know you know this simple schit I'm prepping the reader here...)  The PNA being 3X's the areal girth of the NAO (or whatever it is) means it takes bigger forcing to get it to motivate...etc..etc...

Contrasting, the NAO can become modal in intra-weekly time scales, only to return to the previous dynamic...merely because some wayward bomb happened to ripple through and transiently knock it off kilter.  The PNA is so massive that you could fit a couple bombs in there and it may not even register much on the nightly EOFs... So, that's proooobably related to why the index correlations are ho-hum at best, too.  

Point being, if the PNA is moving positive or negative, the NAO may or may not be responding to its own headaches and either needs to catch up ...or even can't and is muted. 

That all said ...there is still a residue of negative movement there though.  

My personal findings are that you need a modest rising PNA with a neutral negative NAO, in a gradient that is not overall "too" saturated for big snow/winter storm events.. (otherwise, shearing starts negation if the gradient is too steep)  The statistical sciences I've read on the matter, from H. A. to J.B. and everyone in between, they seem to only skim the surface of these index correlations/comparisons and don't plumb very deep into their actual anomaly ranges - which is where the story of 1978 and 1992 and 1993 and 1996 and 2015 is told. 

Not to gloss eyes any more than this probably already has ... but, I think of the atmosphere as having a total 'torque budget' if you will... If the flow is too hostile and fast, with uber compression and 510 heights over Jame's Bay while 588 over Dallas to Miami latitudes... that "looks" delicious...but it's those red berries they warn you about as a kid...  Ha.  seriously, with torque budgeting...all the angular momentum in that circumstance is quantifiably (perhaps) gobbled up in the planetary wave scales... However, a weaker gradient can still give you the same actual numerical index numbers ... but, there is a lot of torque on the playing field and sure enough...shearing becomes less and the torque gets expressed at smaller scaled bombs.   Think +.5 PNA --> while <-- -.5 NAO, sans the extraordinarily tall subtropical Dallas wall towering above the grand canyon in Canada.