eyewall Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 With the winter off the rails here and the big coastal expected to be a non event in this neck of the woods it is time to look ahead to next year. Post your thoughts here on what it might look like. PS this thread changed our fortunes last year . Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 56 minutes ago, eyewall said: With the winter off the rails here and the big coastal expected to be a non event in this neck of the woods it is time to look ahead to next year. Post your thoughts here on what it might look like. PS this thread changed our fortunes last year . Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk I may start veering in this direction myself soon....that and fantasy baseball. My first instinct is that next year may be ENSO neutral and less than stellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: What is your problem? I like baseball? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: You dont know what's at stake... Your irrelevance is +5SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Aside from the snow on Christmas, this winter was awful. I’m hopeful that 2018/2019 won’t be as big as a train wreck as this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 Eyewall did change our fortunes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Eyewall did change our fortunes. Maybe if he starts this thread Dec 1 2018, we'll have a full 4 months of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 29, 2018 Share Posted March 29, 2018 I wonder if my snow pack from this winter will stick around until next winter...lol. I still have 30-36" depending on measurement location. It will surely solidify after this rain with the colder weather coming and with some snow threats next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 Looks like warm neutral for ENSO next year, maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 West-based El Nino, about the best case scenario for snow If anyone is interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 16, 2018 Share Posted May 16, 2018 This period stormy has +correlation with next Winter -NAO and general El Nino (I'll post images when computer arrives) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 Where do I sign.... On 5/13/2018 at 12:40 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: West-based El Nino, about the best case scenario for snow If anyone is interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 2, 2018 Share Posted June 2, 2018 On May 13, 2018 at 12:40 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: West-based El Nino, about the best case scenario for snow If anyone is interested If it stays weak, biggest snow stays north and east. Assuming modoki.....if its east based, we rat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 2, 2018 Share Posted June 2, 2018 It could be one of the best Winters in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 On 6/2/2018 at 12:20 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It could be one of the best Winters in a while Shovels sharpening this weekend, ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 Just hope it's not east based forcing. There's more to it, than ONI......SSTs etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 Only several months to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 Jamstec blows but for its June update it’s coming in cold and dry for New England next winter with a moderate El Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 I'm just about sold on el nino, though I did buy the head fake last year. I don't expect a repeat. Weak to low-end moderate.. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/06/el-nino-watch-issued-for-winter-2018.html Later this season the all important modoki watch will commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 22, 2018 Share Posted June 22, 2018 I thought neutral-warm ENSO years tended to produce stormier winters ... I can think of at least one year where that was certainly true... But then again, the problem with "neutral-warm ENSO" labels ...or the like, is that the vast majority of times, the ENSO is in some state of changing ... It may be transiently passing through the scale at neutral warm, warm, cool, cold, hot ...earning its distinction by happenstance...blah blah... when/where in space and time it is the forces inducing it to change that are really the physical drive for a given winter in question's bias one way or the other. i.e., lots of moving parts there... I'm not really ever put out or in one way or the other when I hear about ENSO this or that... Like, the super NINO a couple clicks back had proportionately, vastly under-performing global impacts compared to the scale of standard deviation of that monster event... Something was offsetting - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 El Nino prospects are fading.. looks like another -PNA Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 On June 27, 2018 at 2:41 AM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: El Nino prospects are fading.. looks like another -PNA Winter. You change your position every week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted July 13, 2018 Share Posted July 13, 2018 2009-10 of course is going to end up being at least "an" analog with solar. ENSO will probably be similar although doubt we get a moderate Nino like that winter. Summer so far 500mb is polar opposite of 2009. 2014-15 could be another possible analog simply because this just has the feel of strong west coast ridging (PDO is going to spike, signs there already) & tendency for +NAO leaves a very cold source region over east Canada & Hudson Bay. Low solar will more than likely enhance high latitude blocking, most likely in the EPO region or at least currently has that feel. I will say this, still coming out of a Nina background state, I'm not sold on super +NAO continuing just yet. I think NE ends up colder with +NAO with this setup versus having a -NAO. Of course, not exactly what you want to hear as far as big noreasters, however, all its takes is a transient -NAO block to work magic. From my standpoint smart money overall at this point is a colder than average NE. AND REMEMBER, these are very preliminary thoughts. Lots can change depending on ENSO..etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted July 13, 2018 Share Posted July 13, 2018 It’s just a matter of time before the NAO averages negative for DJF, this has been an impressive stretch of positive NAO winters for the past 7 years or so. QBO looks like it will be transitioning from negative to positive before or during the winter and that is not terrible if you want to see a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 13, 2018 Share Posted July 13, 2018 2 hours ago, Powderboy413 said: It’s just a matter of time before the NAO averages negative for DJF, this has been an impressive stretch of positive NAO winters for the past 7 years or so. QBO looks like it will be transitioning from negative to positive before or during the winter and that is not terrible if you want to see a -NAO. The only issue I see with -nao is this propensity to form in late winter early spring. The only heart of winter I can recall is Dec-Jan 2011. The QBO was favorable for ATL blocking last winter and we were just able to sneak it in March. It should be a ‘it’s just a matter of time’ but tendenacies cannot be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted July 13, 2018 Share Posted July 13, 2018 3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The only issue I see with -nao is this propensity to form in late winter early spring. The only heart of winter I can recall is Dec-Jan 2011. The QBO was favorable for ATL blocking last winter and we were just able to sneak it in March. It should be a ‘it’s just a matter of time’ but tendenacies cannot be ignored. Yeah I was disappointed last year with how favorable everything looked. I have read some articles in the past stating -NAO is more likely in solar minuimum and when it is ascending and + NAO is favorable when solar cycle is declining. Heres article if interested http://lasp.colorado.edu/media/projects/SORCE/meetings/2015/presentations/Session 2/d_Mursula_SORCE_talk_Public.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 13, 2018 Share Posted July 13, 2018 Good stuff, bookmarked to revert back in Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted July 14, 2018 Share Posted July 14, 2018 JAMSTEC July update is a pretty epic DEC-FEB. Below normal temps & above normal precip for entire east. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 14, 2018 Share Posted July 14, 2018 I'm going to start peeking around when I get back from Hawaii, and will probably update my blog to begin binning by anticipated ENSO intensity when the next ENSO update comes out later this week. I can tell you right now what will unequivocally make or break this winter. If its east based, winter will suck....if it isn't, it should be very good for at least 40N point north.....further south would have better luck with a moderate Nino, as opposed to weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.