snowstormcanuck Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: I'm hearing/reading rumours of a storm around the 23rd. Think this one will miss us as well? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Snow squalls really overproduced across the area today, with several periods of moderate to heavy snow. Some of the stronger convection produced pea size snow pellets. There were even a few bouts of thundersnow in the area as well.Numerous reports of 1-3” across parts of the metro, which no one would have guessed would happen.ORD ended up with 2.2”. A few reports from there this afternoon below...KORD 131951Z 04007KT 1/2SM R10L/2000VP6000FT SN FZFG VV007 M02/M04 A3015 RMK AO2 SLP218 SNINCR 2/2 P0014 T10221039KORD 132051Z 03015KT 1/4SM R10L/2000V3500FT +SN FZFG VV007 M02/M04 A3016 RMK AO2 SNE26B33 SLP223 P0002 60019 T10221044 53004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndTenn Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 We got close to an inch from a heavy squall about 7pm. Easily the most intense snow I've seen this "winter". There were reports of thundersnow to our southeast, in eastern KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 59 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Yes I think there's a chance we may see an inch overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Snow squalls really overproduced across the area today, with several periods of moderate to heavy snow. Some of the stronger convection produced pea size snow pellets. There were even a few bouts of thundersnow in the area as well. Numerous reports of 1-3” across parts of the metro, which no one would have guessed would happen. ORD ended up with 2.2”. A few reports from there this afternoon below... . Very similar conditions with the snow here off the north wind today... minus the thundersnow that is. Have probably received about 2-2.5" the last few days. Dying breaths of winter '17-'18. Doesn't look to warm up any time soon either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Got ~1.0" last night. Stat pad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 9 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: I think there's a chance we may see an inch overnight. We got DAB'ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 ya nothing down here. That 1-3" call looks like it was mostly northern and eastern GTA, and nowhere near 3" haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Tuesday is looking interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Friday night-Saturday looks like a bit of a mixed mess around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Calling snow depth 0 today first time this month. Had it at a T over a week but those withering patches of snow are mostly gone, just an isolated patch in complete shade left as well as some piles. The mall piles still huge as we have only reached 44 for a high in March, very unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Ice ice baby? Not focusing on amounts here as much as the corridor in play. Temps look marginal so accretion rate would likely be hurt by that. Glanced at the LOT afd and they expressed considerable uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 RC did the afternoon discussion for LOT. His thinking is that ice will be limited in Chicago proper due to onshore flow and UHI. The other thing to consider with the marginal temps is that precip rates could get moderate to briefly heavy, which would be another factor that would hurt accretion rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 54 today but with the light winds and strong mid-March sun it felt warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 25 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: 54 today but with the light winds and strong mid-March sun it felt warmer. Ditto this for me here in the Indpls area today. IND still concerned about some freezing rain in the ne parts of the CWA but Hoosier's map shown above shows northward trend from here. Just think, a week ago they were talking 60's for here on Sat. Get rid of that negative NAO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 RC did the afternoon discussion for LOT. His thinking is that ice will be limited in Chicago proper due to onshore flow and UHI. The other thing to consider with the marginal temps is that precip rates could get moderate to briefly heavy, which would be another factor that would hurt accretion rates.Pretty tough call on how everything plays out, with multiple competing factors. I'm wondering if temps overperform again tomorrow especially if clouds don't thicken too quick which will play a role in where pavement temps are at prior to precip. Excellent point about the marginal temps affecting accretion rate as well. Many of the raw freezing rain accum outputs from the models seem to be a bit aggressive vs total liquid equivalent qpf and are probably not well accounting for sub-optimal accretion rates. Since we don't forecast pavement temps, it's hard to be super confident, but gut feeling is still that ice accums are mostly limited to elevated/colder surfaces with some exceptions. The city is a wild card but also feel that the steady onshore winds and UHI keeping temps propped up conceptually makes sense. Even if temps do drop to 30-32 or something, would think mild pavement starting point especially there would keep impacts minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Think there's a shot at getting every precip type overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Full sun and below freezing on a mid March afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Models seem to be a tad cooler... wondering if this might be more of a sleet/snow situation here vs liquid (rain or frz rain). Close call though with the isothermal layer... any slightly warmer outcome would suddenly result in a deep layer above 0C. Temps have been held in the mid 30s with clouds and wind off the lake, so don't have that far to go to drop to AOB 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 16, 2018 Author Share Posted March 16, 2018 41 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Models seem to be a tad cooler... wondering if this might be more of a sleet/snow situation here vs liquid (rain or frz rain). Close call though with the isothermal layer... any slightly warmer outcome would suddenly result in a deep layer above 0C. Temps have been held in the mid 30s with clouds and wind off the lake, so don't have that far to go to drop to AOB 32. IWX is thinking an inch or two for snow/sleet before flipping to zr, probably around daylight for my area. Can't argue. It will all be gone by late afternoon anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 I honestly have no idea how much, or what kind of precip we will get tonight. Every model is way different for both amounts and types. HRRR would have us believe we'll be getting a few inches of snow. 3km NAM shows very little of anything, and the RGEM would be more rain/freezing rain than snow. I guess we'll find out in a few hours lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: I honestly have no idea how much, or what kind of precip we will get tonight. Every model is way different for both amounts and types. HRRR would have us believe we'll be getting a few inches of snow. 3km NAM shows very little of anything, and the RGEM would be more rain/freezing rain than snow. I guess we'll find out in a few hours lol. Yea, it's really all over the place coming down to the start of the event. What's new this season though... Looks like a glaze to 0.20" ice and a dusting to 1.5" of snow/sleet across a decent portion of the area should be a good to go with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Temp has already dropped to freezing here... quicker than I thought it would. Shouldn't drop much more but this should ensure freezing/frozen precip types even right at onset, especially with some dry air/wetbulbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 And we're starting off as sleet. Temp a balmy 38 but with a dew of 23 the temp should come down quickly. EDIT: Heavy sleet mixed with gigantic flakes now. Temp down to 37 as of 9:06pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Izzi with the long winded LOT update that changes nothing. The guy is the Dostoevsky of weather for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Mostly snow now, with some sleet still mixing in from time to time. Grassy areas have whitened up between the sleet and wet snow. Temp dropped back to 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 I was downstairs watching tv and simply forgot to check what kind of precip the good band was producing. The CR airport reported moderate snow for two straight hourly reports. I just went out and measured a couple tenths of an inch of slushy, crusty stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 The recent HRRR runs are putting the main freezing rain corridor right through here after earlier runs were a bit colder aloft. Needless to say low confidence in precip type trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Ended up with a few tenths of sleet and snow. The first wave is over, and now it looks like the next wave will stall out and just miss south later tonight/early tomorrow. All in all a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Precip starting out as sleet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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