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March Forecast Discussion


IWXwx

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Interesting look on the models for much of the rest of March. The first half of this upcoming week will continue to look wintry in Michigan. Models seem to be strengthening this little impulse coming through West Michigan on Monday. Hopefully we can get some lake enhancement. Then the system for next weekend is looking more sheared out with less warmth working its way north. The following week (first week of Spring) continues the chances of some possible wintry systems. This blocking in eastern Canada has systems shearing apart, spinning in loopty-loops, etc...

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-2 this morning for the low.  Marks the first time below zero imy since February 22 when it was -9.  The early week 13" I received has settled down to about 4"... ratios were 28:1.  Definitely wasn't expecting it to stick around this time of year, but it was sure nice seeing the depth creep back over 40" for a couple days.  Current depth is 34", with a seasonal peak at 43".  More snow showers moving in tonight through Tuesday.  I always look forward to springtime hybrid lake effect during the day. Rates can briefly be insane.  Here's to a spring 2016 when 3-31 through 4-10, 42" of snow fell! 

 beautiful sunny day before things turn.

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18 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Euro has backed off on warmth getting up to the I-80 corridor late in the week/next weekend.  

The models had been suggesting 60s around here Friday.  Now, the mild ridge has been squashed and we are left with a cold east wind off the lakes.  The latest GFS and Euro now suggest we may struggle to reach 40.  The entire 10-day euro has become pretty chilly.  The GFS is not quite as chilly, but there's no warmth, either.

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4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The models had been suggesting 60s around here Friday.  Now, the mild ridge has been squashed and we are left with a cold east wind off the lakes.  The latest GFS and Euro now suggest we may struggle to reach 40.  The entire 10-day euro has become pretty chilly.  The GFS is not quite as chilly, but there's no warmth, either.

Football.jpg

Based on TWC has been showing, the blocking, and recent trends, this "March" looks predestined to not only have temps fail to reach 70 degrees but even fail to reach 60 degrees. The last time temps failed to reach 60 the entire month at DAY was in 2001. However, the last time DAY, CMH, and CVG all failed to reach 60 degrees the entire month of March was in 1958. Welcome to Marches 2013 and 2001 all over again.

 

TWC10day (1).jpg

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5 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

2.2" officially at YYZ yesterday. A rare "bullseye" for them.

Thats good! Hey man whatever it takes to get to and above 40" is fine by me. Only need 1.5" more now at YYZ to officially hit 40.0". And all of it through these 2-4" events, :lol:. Then there's the east coast with there, what? 5th Nor'Easter this season. <_<

 

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This is the 6th day in the past week of waking up to about an inch of fresh snow each day that has fallen. Then the sun melts more of it (except shaded areas) and then we repeat the next day.

Yesterday and this morning we had about 2 inches each morning. With the colder temperatures and more clouds today, we still have more snow left on the ground. Plus, it gets recovered with each snow squall we get. These March snow showers are quite fascinating with the instability...the heaviest I have seen it snow all winter has easily been today. If we had this pattern back in January and February, we would have quite the snowpack here again.

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38 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Im thinking Toronto has a chance to reach 40" seasonal total tonight. Current thought is the GTA sees between 1-3" tonight. 

3" would surprise me. I could see 1" and locally a bit more.

As an aside...I really don't care if we reach 40". I know Snowstorms is obsessed with that benchmark. But I don't get the significance. It's actually pathetic that our winters have gotten so bad that 40" is supposed to be a revered milestone to reach during the course of a winter. Once upon a time a 40" winter was a BAD (albeit slightly bad) winter.

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20 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

3" would surprise me. I could see 1" and locally a bit more.

As an aside...I really don't care if we reach 40". I know Snowstorms is obsessed with that benchmark. But I don't get the significance. It's actually pathetic that our winters have gotten so bad that 40" is supposed to be a revered milestone to reach during the course of a winter. Once upon a time a 40" winter was a BAD (albeit slightly bad) winter.

I consider 40" as the new norm now thats why and that in itself is terrible. I don't know how the east coast keeps getting blizzard after blizzard season after season. Beyond frustration, its mind blowing. And yet we can't even buy a single storm. Once upon a time, Toronto would also get 3 or more 6+" storms a season and a footer or more every other season. After 1980 everything just flipped and we haven't been able to go back to that pre 1980 era since. I swear the seasons are also getting shorter every year. 

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2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

3" would surprise me. I could see 1" and locally a bit more.

As an aside...I really don't care if we reach 40". I know Snowstorms is obsessed with that benchmark. But I don't get the significance. It's actually pathetic that our winters have gotten so bad that 40" is supposed to be a revered milestone to reach during the course of a winter. Once upon a time a 40" winter was a BAD (albeit slightly bad) winter.

I'm hearing/reading rumours of a storm around the 23rd. Think this one will miss us as well?

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