March Banter

[psuhoffman]

@WxWatcher007

I have no problem with your take. But 2 counter points. 

There are 3 general climates in here. Actually more but to simplify it there is the northern tier hills and western mountains region where snow is fairly common in winter.  There snow can definitely hit early and late. The piedmont in between the blue ridge and fall line.  There snow is somewhat common but definitely more irregular but it can snow big into late march.  And the coastal plain.  Honestly snow is a crap shoot there and even in prime climo it's a long shot.  Up here my odds do go down too this late though. But people should know their climo and adjust expectations accordingly.  There are a lot of people in the first 2 zones and they might want to track.  In a lot of cases I was tracking so it wasn't a waste of time to me.

Maybe some of the extreme agitation is from people who can't align their expectations with reality where they live. I couldn't.  I lived in south Jersey and Herndon VA and it drove me crazy. If I lived in DC or anywhere on the coastal plain I would go nuts. But I realize that and don't live there. Some years here isn't even enough but at least I'm satisfied more then 50% of the time here. But what I don't get is if it's that important to others like it is me (not picking I'm that crazy too) why choose to live where your miserable?  I'm also not taking a shot at choosing to live there. There are advantages but everyone has to decide what makes them happy. If snow is high on that list then choosing to live somewhere with D.C.s climo is a bad decision. If it's no big deal that's fine but it's the people that live somewhere with a pretty crappy snow climo then complain about it all the time that confuse me. 

The other point is I don't blame or bother anyone for checking out. I've checked out lately. I've not tracked since this storm got into short range. Haven't looked at anything in days. I moved on to some stuff I've put off and needs my attention. If a threat presents I'll probably jump back in. But I think it's likely over other then a minor event possibly up here. But I'm not going into the long range thread and telling cobalt or anyone else that wants to keep tracking to stop and their wasting their time. 

Thats the thing. I don't blame anyone for deciding they give up.  That wasn't my point.  But why do they have to come into the discussion thread and take a dump on me or Chill?  Why can't they just check out like some of us do and go silent?  Instead they have to dump all over those of us still tracking and have a temper tantrum and muck up the thread with useless whining and complaints and insist we all stop tracking. It's childish. They can give up. Just don't try to make me. 

I know the probability. I'm not getting suckered. I know how likely each threat is to fail. If I track willingly accepting that it then who is anyone else to say I'm being stupid and should give up. I know it's a 1/10 shot maybe but the 1/10 pays off sometimes so I track waiting for when it eventually hits. I roll with the punches until then knowing it will snow again eventually and don't let each fail get me down too much. 

 

[Jebman]

I highly appreciate all the tracking that you and Chill and others do on the forums. Its fun to follow. If I get snow its good. If I dont, well thats fine too, its late March and I dont live in Berkeley County in West Virginia where there is a ton of deep snow. (I know, I visited there Thursday afternoon, the snow is DEEP!)

[66degreesnorth]

Awesome! Suggestion....if you don't have a weather station, get/or ask (Bday Christmas) for a decent weather station and join CoCoRaHS. You can put ALL the data in there and it becomes a permanent record, plus you are helping the weather community. I STILL haven't converted all my data off the notebooks I used to keep in the early years, I need to do that lol.

What would y'all recommend as a decent weather station?

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[CAPE]

7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@WxWatcher007

I have no problem with your take. But 2 counter points. 

There are 3 general climates in here. Actually more but to simplify it there is the northern tier hills and western mountains region where snow is fairly common in winter.  There snow can definitely hit early and late. The piedmont in between the blue ridge and fall line.  There snow is somewhat common but definitely more irregular but it can snow big into late march.  And the coastal plain.  Honestly snow is a crap shoot there and even in prime climo it's a long shot.  Up here my odds do go down too this late though. But people should know their climo and adjust expectations accordingly.  There are a lot of people in the first 2 zones and they might want to track.  In a lot of cases I was tracking so it wasn't a waste of time to me.

Maybe some of the extreme agitation is from people who can't align their expectations with reality where they live. I couldn't.  I lived in south Jersey and Herndon VA and it drove me crazy. If I lived in DC or anywhere on the coastal plain I would go nuts. But I realize that and don't live there. Some years here isn't even enough but at least I'm satisfied more then 50% of the time here. But what I don't get is if it's that important to others like it is me (not picking I'm that crazy too) why choose to live where your miserable?  I'm also not taking a shot at choosing to live there. There are advantages but everyone has to decide what makes them happy. If snow is high on that list then choosing to live somewhere with D.C.s climo is a bad decision. If it's no big deal that's fine but it's the people that live somewhere with a pretty crappy snow climo then complain about it all the time that confuse me. 

The other point is I don't blame or bother anyone for checking out. I've checked out lately. I've not tracked since this storm got into short range. Haven't looked at anything in days. I moved on to some stuff I've put off and needs my attention. If a threat presents I'll probably jump back in. But I think it's likely over other then a minor event possibly up here. But I'm not going into the long range thread and telling cobalt or anyone else that wants to keep tracking to stop and their wasting their time. 

Thats the thing. I don't blame anyone for deciding they give up.  That wasn't my point.  But why do they have to come into the discussion thread and take a dump on me or Chill?  Why can't they just check out like some of us do and go silent?  Instead they have to dump all over those of us still tracking and have a temper tantrum and muck up the thread with useless whining and complaints and insist we all stop tracking. It's childish. They can give up. Just don't try to make me. 

I know the probability. I'm not getting suckered. I know how likely each threat is to fail. If I track willingly accepting that it then who is anyone else to say I'm being stupid and should give up. I know it's a 1/10 shot maybe but the 1/10 pays off sometimes so I track waiting for when it eventually hits. I roll with the punches until then knowing it will snow again eventually and don't let each fail get me down too much. 

 

Not to nitpick because I know you were simplifying, but the western mountains (highlands) of MD and WV(Canaan etc) are a distinctly different climo region than the mountains and hills anywhere east of there. That area averages generally over 100", and in some places closer to 150". Essentially a micro-climate and it deserves a separate designation, as it dwarfs the disparity in snowfall between say the Piedmont and the interior coastal plain. Also on the interior coastal plain it does snow every winter, so snow is really not a long shot- generally averages are 15-22".  This area is definitely more sensitive to the pattern and storm track than elevated places just NW, so it can miss out or hit big- so I can agree with saying its more of a crap shoot.(the immediate coast/beaches are typically another story wrt to snow climo, but not this year).

In recent years one could argue making the DC area its own climo region. I cant remember the last time my yard didnt do better than DC, not including the nearby NW burbs.

[Fozz]

8 hours ago, Jrlg1181 said:

Awesome.... I started keeping a daily precip record/journal Jan 1st 1990...when I was 12... Figured the start of a new decade was the perfect starting point... And I am still at it 28 years later.☺

Funny enough, January 1st was basically the first day of spring that year.

[Fozz]

15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not to nitpick because I know you were simplifying, but the western mountains (highlands) of MD and WV(Canaan etc) are a distinctly different climo region than the mountains and hills anywhere east of there. That area averages generally over 100", and in some places closer to 150". Essentially a micro-climate and it deserves a separate designation, as it dwarfs the disparity in snowfall between say the Piedmont and the interior coastal plain. Also on the interior coastal plain it does snow every winter, so snow is really not a long shot- generally averages are 15-22".  This area is definitely more sensitive to the pattern and storm track than elevated places just NW, so it can miss out or hit big- so I can agree with saying its more of a crap shoot.(the immediate coast/beaches are typically another story wrt to climo snow, but not this year).

In recent years one could argue making the DC area its own climo region. I cant remember the last time my yard didnt do better than DC, not including the nearby NW burbs.

I agree. I don’t think anyone east of Cumberland averages more than maybe 40”, and those who do average that much are probably the highest points of Carroll county and the Catoctin mountains. It’s after Cumberland where it really becomes a different world.

[EastCoast NPZ]

12 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

I've ALWAYS been a weather lover, especially cold and snow. Never really knew anything different, but the 10/10/79 storm cemented my passion and that is when I started keeping records (yeah, there are a few open spots) at 14 yo. I still am, at almost 54...40 years. I believe you may be on to something earlier 007, it IS different in other areas, and that is also why it is a fascinating hobby/passion. I just know MY climo, and I'm not out of the game until April, and that is why I've never been 'reaped' lol. Heck, I've seen flurries in late May before. That aside, once over 80 I turn into a hermit inside, or head to higher and cooler climates or head west to see son. Everybody has a favorite weather/temp/event, and ALL of us add to this forum in some way because of it, just my opinion.

Yep, that storm is my first vivid weather memory and likely served to stoke my love/passion for snow as a 9 year-old boy.  What a great belated B-day present that event was.  Of any event in my lifetime, that was BY FAR the most anomalous.  Truly historic out here.

[Cobalt]

10 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Yep, that storm is my first vivid weather memory and likely served to stoke my love/passion for snow as a 9 year-old boy.  What a great belated B-day present that event was.  Of any event in my lifetime, that was BY FAR the most anomalous.  Truly historic out here.

What happened in the 10/10/79 storm? I looked it up, but didn't find many descriptive articles regarding the event

[PrinceFrederickWx]

11 hours ago, PhineasC said:

It's become pretty well-established that for whatever reason March has become a great month for snow around here. It is better than January at this point.

Five of the last ten years have now had my biggest snowstorm in March (2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018).

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

What happened in the 10/10/79 storm. I looked it up, but didn't find many descriptive articles regarding the event

A surprise heavy wet snow. Lots of power outages because all the leaves were still on the trees.

[Jrlg1181]

2 hours ago, Fozz said:

Funny enough, January 1st was basically the first day of spring that year.

Oh I remember lol... After a great winter month in Dec 89 , even  Nov featured snow if I remember correctly... Spring came in early Jan and never left...

[Cobalt]

Oh I remember lol... After a great winter month in Dec 89 , even  Nov featured snow if I remember correctly... Spring came in early Jan and never left...

That's gotta be the worst. I can't imagine having to wait 11 months + for even a hint of winter after tracking season is over that early.


.

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not to nitpick because I know you were simplifying, but the western mountains (highlands) of MD and WV(Canaan etc) are a distinctly different climo region than the mountains and hills anywhere east of there. That area averages generally over 100", and in some places closer to 150". Essentially a micro-climate and it deserves a separate designation, as it dwarfs the disparity in snowfall between say the Piedmont and the interior coastal plain. Also on the interior coastal plain it does snow every winter, so snow is really not a long shot- generally averages are 15-22".  This area is definitely more sensitive to the pattern and storm track than elevated places just NW, so it can miss out or hit big- so I can agree with saying its more of a crap shoot.(the immediate coast/beaches are typically another story wrt to snow climo, but not this year).

In recent years one could argue making the DC area its own climo region. I cant remember the last time my yard didnt do better than DC, not including the nearby NW burbs.

Everything you said is 100%. I just simplified to keep my post under 10 pages.  The areas in our extreme western zones along the eastern divide are their own mountain climate.  Since we only have like 3 people in here that live there I guess a just glossed over that.  

Technically the ridge and valley region in our west is a different climo from the northern tier hills. My area has a more stable snow distribution because I can do ok with clippers and miller b storms compared to the western zones so I'm more insulated from the dreadful results of a Nina winter. Don't get me wrong they are bad here too compared to other winters. I get 2-3 50" plus years a decade and they are almost never a Nina. But I usually nickel and dime my way to 20-30" in a Nina. My range of expected snow is less extreme. The western zones like Winchester are more boom bust. In years with an active stj they clean up. Even a west track can dump on them front end. 

Your point about the coastal plain is also true but I was mostly referring to big events. Let's be honest most aren't tracking 1-3" storms in the long range thread. Some but not most. We will take it as a consolation but when a threat shows up most hope it's our next warning event.  Coastal plane climo is hit or miss there. They can get multiple warning events in one year then go 3 years without one. It's about a 50/50 bet any given year weather they get a warning level storm.  In the northern tier climo its more like 95%.  In 13 winters here I've never not had at least one 6"+ event.  The piedmont is somewhere in between.  But yes it "snows" everywhere in our forum every winter. But most of the DEBS in here consider a winter with 7" from several 1-2" events a total fail. I was playing by their rules. I know your way more level headed about snow. 

Dc is its own climo because it's right along a river at almost sea level and an UHI within the coastal zone so it's inherently worse. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Fozz said:

I agree. I don’t think anyone east of Cumberland averages more than maybe 40”, and those who do average that much are probably the highest points of Carroll county and the Catoctin mountains. It’s after Cumberland where it really becomes a different world.

My average here over 13 years is actually 43" if I don't get another inch this year. But that's being skewed by 2010 when I got 101".  If I compile a 30 year mean using the local coop here it's 40.5".  The 128 year mean is 38" but for many of those years I had to use coops that are lower like the north Westminster one so my average is probably right around 40" long term.   But I'm at just about the snowiest spot east of the blue ridge/Catoctins. 

[gymengineer]

1 hour ago, Jrlg1181 said:

Oh I remember lol... After a great winter month in Dec 89 , even  Nov featured snow if I remember correctly... Spring came in early Jan and never left...

Winter did return, just super late. IAD: 3/20/1990- 2.2", 3/24/1990- 3.0", 4/6-7/1990- 3.8"

[Fozz]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My average here over 13 years is actually 43" if I don't get another inch this year. But that's being skewed by 2010 when I got 101".  If I compile a 30 year mean using the local coop here it's 40.5".  The 128 year mean is 38" but for many of those years I had to use coops that are lower like the north Westminster one so my average is probably right around 40" long term.   But I'm at just about the snowiest spot east of the blue ridge/Catoctins. 

Wow nice, 40" is almost as much as Boston and more than Chicago. Hard to believe there's a place like that only 45 minutes from my backyard.

I actually just recently calculated my 19 year average and it's a bit higher than I expected. After averaging all the snow I measured, as well as the best estimates for the storms since 2000 that I didn't measure but had some LWX maps available to look at (especially for the earlier years), I found an average of 28", with a median of 23". Of course the average might be inflated by the three historic years, and 19 years isn't quite long enough for a reliable sample, but I can't imagine the longer term average being less than 26-27" IMBY. The lower parts of town probably average 23-25".

Like you, I'd have a hard time living somewhere that averages less than maybe IAD. Might not be a bad idea to settle in Shrewsbury or Carroll county if I stay around the area long term. Being in College Park in January 2011 was painful (kinda like being in NYC on March 7th rather than the north Jersey hills), and I don't know if I've completely gotten over it yet even though it's been 7 years and I've seen many bigger storms since then 

[PhineasC]

3 hours ago, Fozz said:

I agree. I don’t think anyone east of Cumberland averages more than maybe 40”, and those who do average that much are probably the highest points of Carroll county and the Catoctin mountains. It’s after Cumberland where it really becomes a different world.

Yes, the climate in Parkton and Manchester is far more similar to Rockville and Kingsville than it is to Oakland. It's more than snow too. There is also the far deeper and more prolonged cold that you get out there.

[Vice-Regent]

2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Five of the last ten years have now had my biggest snowstorm in March (2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018).

The PV begins melting down around this time so no surprise there. We all know what happens when the PV has a melt-down.

[MN Transplant]

16 hours ago, Cobalt said:

I remember people on this subforum talking about the 2/12/06 storm melting really quickly, like the day after 

This was my most disappointing 6"+ storm.  Was geared up for my first big east coast event, and it snizzled all day, snowed overnight, and was melting by daylight.  Only had 8" down just west of the Pentagon. 

 

3/25/13 melted extremely quickly, but that was always going to happen in late March. 

[Fozz]

17 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

This was my most disappointing 6"+ storm.  Was geared up for my first big east coast event, and it snizzled all day, snowed overnight, and was melting by daylight.  Only had 8" down just west of the Pentagon. 

 

3/25/13 melted extremely quickly, but that was always going to happen in late March. 

I don't actually remember Feb 2006 melting much the day right after the storm, when it was overcast and NYC was getting raked with record snow. It was the following day that it really started vanishing, and a few days later you wouldn't have known that a major snowstorm just happened. December 2003 was another one that vanished very quickly, but that's because a 45 degree rainstorm washed it all away.

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I don't actually remember Feb 2006 melting much the day right after the storm, when it was overcast and NYC was getting raked with record snow. It was the following day that it really started vanishing, and a few days later you wouldn't have known that a major snowstorm just happened. December 2003 was another one that vanished very quickly, but that's because a 45 degree rainstorm washed it all away.

Yeah I thought the day after was pretty cold. Its like the big storm of Jan 2016, most people remember it as being warm and the meltdown beginning the morning after, but the day following the storm was sunny and cold- upper 20s and low 30s. The rapid warm up began the day after that.

[snownut]

3 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Yep, that storm is my first vivid weather memory and likely served to stoke my love/passion for snow as a 9 year-old boy.  What a great belated B-day present that event was.  Of any event in my lifetime, that was BY FAR the most anomalous.  Truly historic out here.

I have always been a snow lover and the east coast can certainly get some monster storms, they just seem to melt away in days or weeks. 

Feb 11, 1983 was my junior year in high school and the favorite storm of my life.  Thunder/lightning 4" per hour rates and 34" at my home near Winchester.  Super fun storm!

Now living right by the Cascades has me spoiled with insane 30 to 40 foot seasonal totals the norm and deep snowcover from early November to mid June. 

Fun hiking in the snow on an 80 degree summer day.   

[EastCoast NPZ]

3 hours ago, Cobalt said:

What happened in the 10/10/79 storm? I looked it up, but didn't find many descriptive articles regarding the event

Very elevation dependent event (obviously).  Overnight rain and T-storms turned to insanely heavy, wet snow (and T-snow).  At my boyhood home in Warren Co (elevation ~1100 ft) we received 14" by early AM.  Trees were fully-leafed and there was severe tree damage and extensive power outages.  I remember being awoken during the night by the t-storm and again later when a large branch from a tree fell onto the roof.  Caused mass-confusion to everyone in the house and shock to see a the snow-storm in progress.  Will never forget the view out the window when someone turned on the outside floodlights.  Literally puking snow.  I didn't follow the weather back then, so I don't recall there being any forecast of snow.  Talk about shock.  We had trees come down everywhere, including two that came down across our driveway, which took out the power line.  We had no power out there for almost a week.  We had to chainsaw the trees just to shovel out and get out of the house.  We ended up staying at an older sister's place in town until power could be restored.  The sound of trees breaking all that morning was actually disturbing.  Sounded like shot-gun blasts as they broke apart.  

[87storms]

3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

A surprise heavy wet snow. Lots of power outages because all the leaves were still on the trees.

feb 87 was still the most epic one for me.  it was a varsity version of jan '11.  must have been 2-3" per hour rates for a few hours.  you could see the snowflakes through the window at night.  parachutes.

[Fozz]

Here's a very good writeup about the October 1979 storm. Up to 3" fell in the immediate DC suburbs, with up to 5" on Parr's ridge. That's pretty incredible for early October.

http://www.jhuapl.edu/weather/education/Octsnow_1979.pdf

PS: I had no idea some spots recieved up to 14" per @EastCoast NPZ

[Cobalt]

3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Here's a very good writeup about the October 1979 storm. Up to 3" fell in the immediate DC suburbs, with up to 5" on Parr's ridge. That's pretty incredible for early October.

http://www.jhuapl.edu/weather/education/Octsnow_1979.pdf

PS: I had no idea some spots recieved up to 14" per @EastCoast NPZ

Cool to find out it was DC's earliest recorded snowfall of any sort.

[EastCoast NPZ]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/local/1979/10/11/snowstorm-startles-area/c1e39b0c-540e-49fd-bb9a-687cea842516/?utm_term=.4f6171e0bba2

Some mention of the '79 storm in this article.

And here:

http://noapologyvameteorology.blogspot.com/2014/10/remembering-surprise-east-coast.html

[Cobalt]

This is pretty cool

 

[mattie g]

@nw baltimore wx...

Brewing a NE IPA this weekend - first brewday since October, soon after the second little one was born! Pilsner Malt and 2-row, with some Golden Naked Oats and Honey Malt, loaded with Mosaic, Citra, and Simcoe. Can’t wait!

How’s your most recent brew?

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

@nw baltimore wx...

Brewing a NE IPA this weekend - first brewday since October, soon after the second little one was born! Pilsner Malt and 2-row, with some Golden Naked Oats and Honey Malt, loaded with Mosaic, Citra, and Simcoe. Can’t wait!

How’s your most recent brew?

Sounds awesome man! When are we coming over to try it?