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Blizzard 2018 Take II: The Firehose


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We got the sloppy inch in the morning then 0.5” last night.  Rain was prob 1.5-2”

Tree/branch damage was minimal that I have seen here, although some have no power. 

Difficult forecast as far as snow,  but the other aspects of rain and wind seemed pretty spot on. Without that puke we had prior it coulda been a contendah

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11 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I certainly expected ORH to get more. Wrong about that one. I sort of had Feb 2010 in my mind when they pounded paste with 950 temps near -0.5C.  Just too much warm air wrapped in from the NE. Thanks Dryslot.

I guess from a meteorological standpoint, I stole your snow.

11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Can always count on dryslot to throw an occasional turd in the punchbowl from the northeast...like the retrocane too in feb 2010. 

Watching yesterday unfold i said to myself, It had the same similarities as that retro storm with little cold air around to work with.

10 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Man this is legit pounding snow now. Ugh. Of course it's right before the event ends. Nice to look at though. 

One more ginxy blurry cell phone pic through the window. 

 

IMG_1031.JPG

Nice "screen" shot, My wife asked me about a month ago why the screen was off one of the windows and in the same breath says wait, Let me guess.........lol

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8 hours ago, weathafella said:

Models insisting on warm bl temperatures in eastern areas signaled the issues.  We didn’t buy it but the insistence on guidance across the spectrum should have been the flag.

Every model run was being tossed every time they showed warmth, GFS being the worst, But looking at it from the outside, The Nam was getting a lot of play and it was as bad right up until go time as it kept shifting the placement of the firehose, As bad as those snow algorithms are, For the most part, They were correct when they had many not seeing snow.

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1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Loved the pilot report of everyone throwing up.

Curious as to how the Pit did.  Leyden reported 6, Plainfield reported 12.  I'm on a line between the two. 

Nice and breezy here at Pit2 with the sun breaking through.

I'm skeptical of that Leyden report. 

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On 2/28/2018 at 4:51 PM, wxsniss said:

This from Box AFD gave me pause... 

Snow...Ageostropic flow turns from the northwest Thursday night andfrom the west Friday. This may tap some cold air over Ontario,but it does not look enough to overcome the 80-90 knot low leveleast-northeast jet screaming in from Mass Bay and the Gulf ofMaine. Some snow is possible over the Berkshires, especially asthe storm starts moving off to the east. Rain and snow may mixFriday and Friday night. We will look at an inch or two ofsnow accumulation, mainly in the higher elevations of theBerkshire east slopes.

 

Thought I'd chime in to the post-mortem, as I was an active member of the snowier train.

One key question for me is this. We were surprised by the new pulse of warming 925-850 temps between about ~9am-2pm. Tip / ORH / myself discussed that last night and attributed it to maybe an unexpected parcel of warm air mixing in. That made rates irrelevant early in the afternoon, and later it set us back with dynamic cooling as surface temps had climbed back from upper 30s into low 40s. 

As I recall, guidance Wed-Thurs had column cooling below 0C through 925mb by early afternoon, and a forecast based on that + dynamic rates that we did have should have included more snow, even though most clown maps were not showing that. We had frequent comments that models were out-to-lunch on thermals, and the rip-readers would be wrong.

The question: did conservative forecasters correctly identify and factor in that new pulse of warming, or were they correct for the wrong reasons (like many rip readers were)? 

Or are we seeing this wrong, and the whole "new pulse of warm due to an unexpected parcel that wrapped in" is over-complicating, and it's simply hard to snow when you have 850s screaming east-northeast off non-frigid SSTs and no cold source to tap (like the NWS forecaster Wed PM AFD above implies), regardless if Wed-Thurs guidance showed that 850s would be sub 0C by early afternoon.

Relatedly, I wonder how the low level winds compared during 4/97. Can't see 850 winds on e-wall.

 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

That's still pretty impressive in that pic. It's not like those trees are not used to wind in Sandwich. #manwind  

Soggy soils plus inches of rain. The wind was definitely impressive, but you have to admit those trees weren’t.

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Just now, dendrite said:

Soggy soils plus inches of rain. The wind was definitely impressive, but you have to admit those trees weren’t.

Evergreens FTL. But still, in the land of many winter rains events that probably is not easy to do. These aren't CT trees.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Evergreens FTL. But still, in the land of many winter rains events that probably is not easy to do. These aren't CT trees.

True...I bet those trees have seen better and stronger days too. Oh well. All they are is dust in the wind.

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