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Blizzard 2018 Take II: The Firehose


40/70 Benchmark

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4 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

There is no worse Devil on this earth than Gypsies.  If I lose the tree that the house was designed around this year because of them I'm going to need physiatric help because my anger will be absurd.  

 

So so sorry about the roof Ginx.  

 Thanks Is it accumulating at Foxwoods?

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

They go a few years without much then they get 24-36” in back to back March’s. They do big interior systems very well. Always seem to be the pivot point. 

Yeah I feel like they are in a better spot than even the NNE mtns up this way with pivot points.

Its usually just west of the ALB area... that zone that got crushed today has a ridiculous amount of 30"+ jackpots over the years. 

The Mohawk Valley and western Catskills have had maximums of 30"+ in December 2002, even 40"+ in February 2007, 30"+ last March, 30"+ this March, etc.  I know I feel like I'm missing another 1 in there. 

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9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

They go a few years without much then they get 24-36” in back to back March’s. They do big interior systems very well. Always seem to be the pivot point. 

On coastal tracks, They need the low to track north thru SE MA

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I think in the end the WAA from roughly 900-925mb is what skunked a lot of the snow. If we go back to about 1130-12 today, we saw a clear collapsing of the midlevels SE and dual pol confirming it. We had WaWa webcam going over to mostly snow and a lot of peeps in CT valley and just west of ORH mixing. Then, all of the sudden, we really stopped any progress at all...during the time when we were supposed to be actually accelerating the progress....after 18z. This is different from the super early morning snow that fell which we all knew would flip to rain prob around 7-8am.  
Theres a few plausible explanations...but my gut says that it was prob this storm really going crazy (overperofrming winds too) advecting in enough warmth in that 900-925 range to offset the latent/dynamic cooling and reverse the progress that was being made. The spc analysis looked like 850 was basically going according to plan or even colder than models but 925 was stalling early afternoon when models had it collapsing E. 
You wonder if the over performing winds and the lack of cooling in that BL were linked somehow. 
 


Good stuff
Yeah was thinking a combination of:
1) a warmer parcel somehow mixed in, because we were well on track cooling through noon when abruptly a bolus of warmer surface temps and probably just aloft pulsed in (and perhaps related to the source or mechanism, this was not modeled at all on Euro etc, though I think HRRRs did show that pulse)
2) no good cold source even when 850 winds turned northeast... was wondering how 97 compared because it did not take long for heavy rates to make the flip daylight Mar 31
3) the anomalous winds make you wonder if that somehow contributed to #1

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think in the end the WAA from roughly 900-925mb is what skunked a lot of the snow. If we go back to about 1130-12 today, we saw a clear collapsing of the midlevels SE and dual pol confirming it. We had WaWa webcam going over to mostly snow and a lot of peeps in CT valley and just west of ORH mixing. Then, all of the sudden, we really stopped any progress at all...during the time when we were supposed to be actually accelerating the progress....after 18z. This is different from the super early morning snow that fell which we all knew would flip to rain prob around 7-8am.  

Theres a few plausible explanations...but my gut says that it was prob this storm really going crazy (overperofrming winds too) advecting in enough warmth in that 900-925 range to offset the latent/dynamic cooling and reverse the progress that was being made. The spc analysis looked like 850 was basically going according to plan or even colder than models but 925 was stalling early afternoon when models had it collapsing E. 

You wonder if the over performing winds and the lack of cooling in that BL were linked somehow. 

 

100% agree

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I just mean overall. I think he got more than Albany last March? But yeah 2013-2016 was a mini hose job.

Actually I take that back... looking at the maps, 2013-2014 looks to have had some solid events the greater ALB area, especially just west like you mentioned.

That winter couldn't have been that bad given 4 different storms were exceeding 12" in the region.

December 2013...12-16" in the area.

12.14.13_snow.png

 

January 2014... another 12-16" in that area.

1.2.14_snow.png

 

February 2014... another 12-16"

2.5.14_snow.png

 

February 2014... 16-20"+

2.13.14_snow.png

 

 

 

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53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Greenwich CT has several hundred trees down with massive infrastructure failure. Wow 

And yet most (75%) of us still have power. It's not that bad out there. Those "several hundred trees down" are in back country which is all trees and 40 mph gusts bring down large branches that take out power lines. Talk about dumb hyperbole.

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I feel like they are in a better spot than even the NNE mtns up this way with pivot points.

Its usually just west of the ALB area... that zone that got crushed today has a ridiculous amount of 30"+ jackpots over the years. 

The Mohawk Valley and western Catskills have had maximums of 30"+ in December 2002, even 40"+ in February 2007, 30"+ last March, 30"+ this March, etc.  I know I feel like I'm missing another 1 in there. 

Feb 2010

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Actually I take that back... looking at the maps, 2013-2014 looks to have had some solid events the greater ALB area, especially just west like you mentioned.

That winter couldn't have been that bad given 4 different storms were exceeding 12" in the region.

December 2013...12-16" in the area.

12.14.13_snow.png

 

January 2014... another 12-16" in that area.

1.2.14_snow.png

 

February 2014... another 12-16"

2.5.14_snow.png

 

February 2014... 16-20"+

2.13.14_snow.png

 

 

 

Ahh yes the Feb storm. Forgot about that. Yeah that was a decent winter there I guess...as it was here.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Actually I take that back... looking at the maps, 2013-2014 looks to have had some solid events the greater ALB area, especially just west like you mentioned.

That winter couldn't have been that bad given 4 different storms were exceeding 12" in the region.

December 2013...12-16" in the area.

 

January 2014... another 12-16" in that area.

 

February 2014... another 12-16"

 

February 2014... 16-20"+

 

 

 

The year of the SWFE

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Just now, Hoth said:

Feb 2010

Yup there it is. 

That region puts up some big storm totals.  In fact, it really is impressive the number of 20-40"+ storms they've had since 2000 in those counties west of Albany.

I forget that as well just because of some of the big ticket coastal plain storms during the blitz seasons we just went through starting in 2013. 

But every so often like this storm, they'll pop off another 20-40" storm due to the pivot point.

 

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7 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

The year of the SWFE

I'm starting to really appreciate SWFEs. I think the simplicity is what's great about them. Every one knows the deal. There's no 6 pieces of energy coming together from all corners of the planet to form a storm that no model can properly handle even 48 hours out. It's just warm moist air over cold dome and for how ever long the cold can hold out you get snow.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yup there it is. 

That region puts up some big storm totals.  In fact, it really is impressive the number of 20-40"+ storms they've had since 2000 in those counties west of Albany.

I forget that as well just because of some of the big ticket coastal plain storms during the blitz seasons we just went through starting in 2013. 

But every so often like this storm, they'll pop off another 20-40" storm due to the pivot point.

 

I'd swear somewhere around Hunter put up like 70" in that monster. I was green with envy as it poured rain.

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