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Blizzard 2018 Take II: The Firehose


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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

8pm... is anyone over to complete and steady snowfall down there?

I'm honestly blown away that there isn't one person on here reporting moderate to heavy snow right now in the firehose.

radar does look solid but ground truth is meh .. low lvl dry air eating away at echoes beneath the beam. Also to cool the low lvls the precip rates just aren't there .. like Will said earlier, we needed ~0.2"/hr type rates and right now its at best half that (at least where I'm at just E of ORH)

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I think in the end the WAA from roughly 900-925mb is what skunked a lot of the snow. If we go back to about 1130-12 today, we saw a clear collapsing of the midlevels SE and dual pol confirming it. We had WaWa webcam going over to mostly snow and a lot of peeps in CT valley and just west of ORH mixing. Then, all of the sudden, we really stopped any progress at all...during the time when we were supposed to be actually accelerating the progress....after 18z. This is different from the super early morning snow that fell which we all knew would flip to rain prob around 7-8am.  

Theres a few plausible explanations...but my gut says that it was prob this storm really going crazy (overperofrming winds too) advecting in enough warmth in that 900-925 range to offset the latent/dynamic cooling and reverse the progress that was being made. The spc analysis looked like 850 was basically going according to plan or even colder than models but 925 was stalling early afternoon when models had it collapsing E. 

You wonder if the over performing winds and the lack of cooling in that BL were linked somehow. 

 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think in the end the WAA from roughly 900-925mb is what skunked a lot of the snow. If we go back to about 1130-12 today, we saw a clear collapsing of the midlevels SE and dual pol confirming it. We had WaWa webcam going over to mostly snow and a lot of peeps in CT valley and just west of ORH mixing. Then, all of the sudden, we really stopped any progress at all...during the time when we were supposed to be actually accelerating the progress....after 18z. This is different from the super early morning snow that fell which we all knew would flip to rain prob around 7-8am.  

Theres a few plausible explanations...but my gut says that it was prob this storm really going crazy (overperofrming winds too) advecting in enough warmth in that 900-925 range to offset the latent/dynamic cooling and reverse the progress that was being made. The spc analysis looked like 850 was basically going according to plan or even colder than models but 925 was stalling early afternoon when models had it collapsing E. 

You wonder if the over performing winds and the lack of cooling in that BL were linked somehow. 

 

The winds certainly did better than I expected and that seems due to much better mixing. We always had a decent T/Td spread here and temperatures increased through the day here from 36F at 11 a.m. to 42F now. Seems like all the warm air wrapped in the circulation in the boundary layer skunked things. 

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22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

8pm... is anyone over to complete and steady snowfall down there?

I'm honestly blown away that there isn't one person on here reporting moderate to heavy snow right now in the firehose.  Had someone said that anytime from 24-120 hours ago they would've been laughed out of here, by myself included.

I have had moderate to heavy snow for about an hour in N RI. Not sticking though.

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Albany has. He has not.

Really the only other storm that had a huge difference between him and ALB was the Feb 2010 system.

There was just the few year period of 2013-2016 when everyone in the interior suffered, but I feel like they've had some decent storms since then like last March and February 2014 was the one bright spot in that multi-year stretch when ALB area had 14-20" or something.

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

I will take one tomorrow when we go back up there to at least reshingle. That's if there is no snow up there  Sucks bro.  I moved 10 to 15  6 inch plus diameter branches some 15 feet long out of the yard, About 6 hit my roof one straight in. Lots of trees down . Fuking gypsy moths

There is no worse Devil on this earth than Gypsies.  If I lose the tree that the house was designed around this year because of them I'm going to need physiatric help because my anger will be absurd.  

 

So so sorry about the roof Ginx.  

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I mean him AND Albany had a rough several years there but they've had their fair share of 18"+ events over the past decade.

There was just the few year period of 2013-2016 when everyone in the interior suffered, but I feel like they've had some decent storms since then.

Really the only other storm that had a huge difference between him and ALB was the Feb 2010 system.

 

I just mean overall. I think he got more than Albany last March? But yeah 2013-2016 was a mini hose job.

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