HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, ice1972 said: Maybe its cuz the sun is going down...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2018 Author Share Posted March 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You and Harv...I give you credit going opposite of what he was saying...but I guess we know why he’s the Pro he is. I post with conviction, but like anyone else, I'm not always right. Case en point. But I still think my long range call was great....it was my medium range forecasting that failed. The SSW delivered, as a highly anomalous block and storm developed.....but the cold drifted to the wrong side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: We're cooling aloft, winds should turn down a bit, hopefully heavier stuff mixes colder air down. Just nitpicking, but you can't "mix" cold air down....it will happen via latent cooling (snowflakes melting into the warm BL...freezing level will drop more and more...esp if the snow aloft is heavy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 88 mph ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Just nitpicking, but you can't "mix" cold air down....it will happen via latent cooling (snowflakes melting into the warm BL...freezing level will drop more and more...esp if the snow aloft is heavy) Yeah I wasn't sure how to fancy word scientifically say that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2018 Author Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Just nitpicking, but you can't "mix" cold air down....it will happen via latent cooling (snowflakes melting into the warm BL...freezing level will drop more and more...esp if the snow aloft is heavy) I still get mixed up on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 abatement of steady rain here... 41 F ... winds seemed to have slacked a bit too. no longer audible with less tree sway.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 I’ll prob go down in a ball of flames on this, but I don’t see anyone in SNE south of the Pike or east of the river getting anything other than white rain or maybe sloppy coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said: you have a 9 inch depth? Yes. I don't believe in wiping the board. Nearing 10" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 If you loop the HRRR you can see there is a bit of cold air at 925 hpa that gets adveted in from the east. https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_ncep_jet:&runTime=2018030220&plotName=temp_t3925&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=49&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR Model Fields - Experimental&maxFcstLen=48&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 I think your going to see some flash over here in the next half hour to an hour as some dynamics start to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I still get mixed up on that. Yeah the other best way to cool the air is to get a dewpoint drain and continuously use evaporational cooling. We obviously don't have that in this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 honestly really surprised that it is playing out like this .. I think I'll be lucky to even flip over / get a coating up to 40.5 which is the high for the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Damn, knocking at 50kts now. 48kts peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 How the hell is Logan open? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Just crushed Im gonna measure soon Winds are brutal I may have missed it due to spotty network connection but what did you measure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yup. Drying and warming. Only 0.42” here. Impressive storm, but meh effects for NH aside from the coast. 0.96" down here. Other than a couple trees down here or there forgetable for NH. I'm up to 40.3F my high for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2018 Author Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: honestly really surprised that it is playing out like this .. I think I'll be lucky to even flip over / get a coating up to 40.5 which is the high for the day At least we have a another threat in the pipeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: How the hell is Logan open? Why would they be closed ? ... flooding maybe - what are you thinkin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2018 Author Share Posted March 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: I think your going to see some flash over here in the next half hour to an hour as some dynamics start to play out. It should...my call is obviously not going to work out, but I'd be surprised if we were not seeing fairly dramatic changes by 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Why would they be closed ? ... flooding maybe - what are you thinkin' The winds are shaking my house here and I live a mile or two away. Seems like it'd be insane landing there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: It should...my call is obviously not going to work out, but i'd be surprised if we were not seeing fairly dramatic changes by 7pm. Yeah, SE areas are going to where the heavier rates are falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: How the hell is Logan open? Depending on wind direction and crossword thresholds they can operate to some capacity in pretty high winds (45kt+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Anytime you’re relying on dynamics cooling the atmosphere in a system where there is no real cold air to be had...you’re playing with Fire imo. And we’re seeing it first hand in a lot of places. More times than not...it’s a bust..at least where I’m at and in my experience. This is a flop here with regard to any snow. Winds are howling though dam good now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ll prob go down in a ball of flames on this, but I don’t see anyone in SNE south of the Pike or east of the river getting anything other than white rain or maybe sloppy coating I agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, CT Rain said: If you loop the HRRR you can see there is a bit of cold air at 925 hpa that gets adveted in from the east. https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_ncep_jet:&runTime=2018030220&plotName=temp_t3925&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=49&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR Model Fields - Experimental&maxFcstLen=48&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3 Yeah I posted the map below earlier... 850s do the same... not sure what the source of this colder air is, but I've been using WaWa cam as my litmus and now wondering if we might see flip sooner coming from northeast MA... RAP 925 hpa temps at 22z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Damn, BOS sustained at 40 knots...that's man wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 ya not sure how I would feel about being on a plane taking off / landing in these conditions KBOS 022154Z 03040G48KT 3SM -RA BR BKN016 OVC024 05/03 A2944 RMK AO2 PK WND 02050/2117 SLP969 P0004 T00500028 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Damn, BOS sustained at 40 knots...that's man wind. It's banana land here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2018 Author Share Posted March 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Anytime you’re relying on dynamics cooling the atmosphere in a system where there is no real cold air to be had...you’re playing with Fire imo. And we’re seeing it first hand in a lot of places. More times than not...it’s a bust..at least where I’m at and in my experience. This is a flop here with regard to any snow. Winds are howling though dam good now! I still say what really killed the snow was the fact that its not stalling for as long as it had appeared it would.....a few days ago, it was going strong until nearly dawn. This harkens back to John's point this morning about the -PNA attributable se ridge keeping this relatively progressive for a fully captured tempest. It is going to flip....but the heavy hitter rates are going to sink away. We don't have 12/92 or 4/97 residence time for the firehose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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