yoda Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I don't believe the 70mph mention was in the first HWW yesterday. No it was not... going to have to send out an email regarding this to staff for possible power outages and what we are going to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 LWX going all in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 HRDPS still agrees with the 3k bringing some snow across MD tomorrow. Mostly just conversational. Maybe an inch or two in northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 17 minutes ago, yoda said: Isn't this tweet for NE? Did you even look at the maps, yoda? Last I checked, our areas are being shown on those maps, even if the person who tweeted them wasn't hashtagging md, va and dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, mappy said: Did you even look at the maps, yoda? Last I checked, our areas are being shown on those maps, even if the person who tweeted them wasn't hashtagging md, va and dc I can't see the map at work, i saw the hashtags and they didn't have VA/MD/DC... my fault Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: I can't see the map at work, i saw the hashtags and they didn't have VA/MD/DC... my fault then dont reply if you can't even view the maps. ffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Winds from the Euro. The mean 330ft (wind energy) winds, and then the crappy gust product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Pretty consistent across the models now that the prime time for big winds is going to be in the 6am-10am range. Still windy all day, but we don't get the ramp-up in the afternoon again from the low intensifying/backing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Pretty serious winds for you guys. When I lived down there we had pretty serious tree damage with Isabelle in 03. Granted that was with trees in leaf but if you start talking 70mph gusts with saturated soils there will be damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Pretty serious winds for you guys. When I lived down there we had pretty serious tree damage with Isabelle in 03. Granted that was with trees in leaf but if you start talking 70mph gusts with saturated soils there will be damage Yea this is essentially a tropical storm sans the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 For posterity, the afternoon AFD. This could be one of the strongest non-convective wind storms in several years. Quote FXUS61 KLWX 011928 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 228 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will pass by to the north tonight and it will rapidly intensify as it develops into a coastal low off the New England Coast for Friday. The low will slowly drift east Friday night through Saturday. High pressure will gradually build overhead Saturday night through Monday. Low pressure may impact the area Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Low pressure over the Ohio Valley will pass by to our north tonight and it will rapidly intensify as it develops into a coastal low off the New England Coast by Friday morning. The warm front associated with the low has stalled to our south and west over the Potomac Highlands into Central Virginia. Rain is expected to fill in late this afternoon into this evening...particularly across most of Maryland, eastern West Virginia, northern Virginia and the Washington/Baltimore Metropolitan areas. This is due to increased frontogenetical forcing ahead of the warm front as the low passes by to the north. The cold front associated with the low will pass through our area late this evening and overnight, first across locations west of the Blue Ridge Mountains between 9 pm and midnight, then across the rest of the area between midnight and 3 am. A wind shift to the west and northwest is expected behind the front and strong winds will accompany that shift. The gradient will continue to strengthen overnight causing strong winds. Winds at the top of the mixing layer are around 60 to 75 knots according to the latest NAM/GFS bufkit forecast soundings. Not all of those winds are expected to make it to the surface due to the unfavorable timing, but gusts of 60 to 70 mph are expected especially toward morning. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the entire area except extreme northeastern Maryland. Gusty winds are still expected across northeastern Maryland, but confidence was not high enough to begin the High Wind Warning tonight since the wind field aloft may be weaker closer to the low passing by to the north. Upslope snow showers will develop behind the cold front late this evening and overnight. Accumulating snow is expected and travel will be hazardous across these areas due to the strong winds and snow. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will continue to rapidly intensify off the New England Coast Friday before slowly drifting east Friday night and Saturday. A very strong pressure gradient will continue to cause strong winds over the entire area through Friday night. A High Wind Warning is in effect with gusts around 60 to 70 mph expected. Could see gusts even a bit higher than that...especially across the ridge tops. The strongest winds are expected Friday well into Friday night before diminishing slightly toward morning. The fact that this is a long duration event and the ground will already be saturated means that widespread tree damage is expected along with power outages. This is going to be one of the most power wind storms in recent years. Through this evening...it is a good time to secure lightweight objects outside, and check flashlights and batteries as well as other items needed in a power outage. Upslope snow will continue along and west of the Allegheny Front Friday A Winter Weather Advisory continues for these areas. The combination of snow and blowing snow will reduce vsbys below one-half mile at times making travel very difficult. Wrap around rain and snow showers are likely across the northern and eastern portions of the CWA Friday morning, including the Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas. Snowfall could coat some grassy surfaces but recent warm conditions and marginal temperatures suggest that paved surfaces will be wet. High pressure will gradually build toward the region Saturday through Saturday night. Gusty winds are still expected Saturday with 30 to 45 mph gusts most likely. Winds will gradually diminish Saturday night but it will still be blustery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I will be impressed if winds do end up hitting some of the high end outputs from the models. Outside tropical systems (Sandy included) and the derecho... getting prolonged high end winds seem hard to come by. Not to say it won't be windy, but 60+ gusts for hours? I remain skeptical on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 12 minutes ago, mappy said: I will be impressed if winds do end up hitting some of the high end outputs from the models. Outside tropical systems (Sandy included) and the derecho... getting prolonged high end winds seem hard to come by. Not to say it won't be windy, but 60+ gusts for hours? I remain skeptical on that. Did you live in your current location during the 2012 derecho, and if so, what were the effects up that way? That derecho remains the "high bar" of wind events in my lifetime, including living here in southeastern Fairfax County for the past 30 years and spending the first 20 years growing up in northcentral PA. Never before nor ever since, in either VA or PA, have I seen mature, 50'-60' trees bend at 45 degrees (or greater!) in the wind at the front edge of that derecho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Why does the NAM jump north like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Why is there 1 member in this thread and 80 in the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 There's a potential snowstorm in Long Range and a definitely windstorm in the Short Range. Seems obvious which would be more interesting to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 You don't have to know anything about soundings to know that having a 60kt wind barb that close to the ground is really interesting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I wonder if it verifies, recent history says probably not. 70mph? That sounds crazy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 22 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: Did you live in your current location during the 2012 derecho, and if so, what were the effects up that way? That derecho remains the "high bar" of wind events in my lifetime, including living here in southeastern Fairfax County for the past 30 years and spending the first 20 years growing up in northcentral PA. Never before nor ever since, in either VA or PA, have I seen mature, 50'-60' trees bend at 45 degrees (or greater!) in the wind at the front edge of that derecho... I got hit flush by a microburst in July of 09 (or 10?). Took the tops off of 3 of my trees and one of them went through my roof and dining room ceiling. The wind was so strong that the grass was laying completely flat on the ground. NWS estimated gusts in the low 70's. That was more intense than the derecho in my yard but only lasted maybe 15 minutes. Tomorrow AM has the potential for a fairly prolonged period of strong winds. It's going to get a lot of people's attention. No doubt about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 hours ago, mappy said: we are in for some fun! stink jet is an epic term in and of itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 52 minutes ago, mappy said: I will be impressed if winds do end up hitting some of the high end outputs from the models. Outside tropical systems (Sandy included) and the derecho... getting prolonged high end winds seem hard to come by. Not to say it won't be windy, but 60+ gusts for hours? I remain skeptical on that. This reeks of being overhyped and lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 How many times since the derecho have all 3 DC airports, if at all, reported 40* sustained and 60+ gusts? There was a 36 hour March wind event about 3 years ago that started a bunch of fires. most wind here was July 2010 thunderstorms with 70mph gusts and NWS surveyed area and estimated peak wind gust streaks of 80/90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I guess we'll have to hug the HRRRx (extended HRRR) if we want to see some fizzards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I guess we'll have to hug the HRRRx (extended HRRR) if we want to see some fizzards LWX in their zone forecasts has snow mixing in late tonight into tomorrow morning DC/BALT metro fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I am expecting Sandy like wind conditions. Does that sound right? We lost power then so expecting it may be similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Per CWG https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/03/01/high-wind-warning-fridays-noreaster-may-bring-worst-wind-storm-to-washington-region-since-sandy-in-2012/?tid=pm_local_pop This event will share similarities to some other recent high-wind events: On Feb. 12, 2017, a burst of wind came through during the middle of the night in the range of 50 to 70 mph. This was an acute but relatively short-lived event. A strong cold front raced through the region April 2, 2016, unleashing 60-to-70 mph winds and causing 40,000 power outages. An Arctic cold front on Feb. 14, 2015 produced 50-to-60 mph winds and more than 30,000 outages. On March 12, 2014, a strong cold front and an associated squall line brought gusts in the 50-to-65-mph range. 50,000 customers lost power in the region. In late October, 2012, Sandy brought an extended period of strong winds, with gusts reaching 50 to 70 mph across the region. About 300,000 people lost power in the region. In February 2011, back-to-back powerful wind events produced gusts of 50 to 60 mph on Feb. 19 and 60 to 70 mph on Feb. 25. These events led to 80,000 and 150,000 power outages, respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Thankfully no leaves yet on the trees, if we did can you imagine the overall damage. Not saying there will not be damage, but at least many trees stand a better chance of not being split, uprooted and damaged. Those gusts are wicked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I just read in the latest AFD that we will have gusts between 60 and 70 mph for at least a 12 hour period. I thought this was supposed to be 50 to 60 mph. Why so severe? I can't even begin to imagine the devastation in Dale City after a 12 hour period of 60 to 70 mph wind gusts. Maybe the NWS meant 50 to 60 mph? Maybe it was only a typo? Please for the love of god, please tell me it was only a typo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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