Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: Cruise. Coincidentally also out of fll Which cruise? Would be funny if they were on the same one...PM if you don't want to post publicly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I am not expecting any snow here in NE MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I am not expecting any snow here in NE MD.Seems like Northern Harford or Cecil Counties would be the southern edge of any chance at appreciable snowfall. A light snow shower or flurry can’t be ruled out in your area either, but wind is king of impact around here with this one. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I have only really payed attention to it a few times but it did very well when I did...it nailed the dry slot screwzone that hurt me 2 weeks ago from 24-36 hours out when the RGEM totally missed it. That doesn't mean its right here...but it has been better with meso features then the rgem this winter IMO...from the few times I bothered to pay attention too it. We are going to hear about this for years to come, aren't we? To be honest when that split first started showing up I didn't buy it whatsoever and would have put good money on it not occurring. Though I am sure it has happened in my 13 years up here I can't recall a single time that the northern band set up to my north as this did (but my memory sucks) with the setup and low passage we saw. What normally occurs is that the band sets up just to my south where I am hoping and praying that I can get in on the northern fringes of it. Thus it is never a good omen when you start saying fringed. If you are fringed I am SOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: We are going to hear about this for years to come, aren't we? To be honest when that split first started showing up I didn't buy it whatsoever and would have put good money on it not occurring. Though I am sure it has happened in my 13 years up here I can't recall a single time that the northern band set up to my north as this did (but my memory sucks) with the setup and low passage we saw. What normally occurs is that the band sets up just to my south where I am hoping and praying that I can get in on the northern fringes of it. Thus it is never a good omen when you start saying fringed. If you are fringed I am SOL. No I am over it honestly...it wasn't like an epic screw I got 2" instead of 4 or 5. Big deal... but I did note which guidance placed that feature correctly for future reference. I believed it from the start. I knew there would be an area of relative subsidence and a screw zone between the banding associated with the baroclinic boundary and the banding that was setting up along the jet enhanced area further north. I've seen that before plenty of times. It was more pronounced then usual, maybe because of marginal temps but its a typical thing with those kinds of waves. You are right they usually don't end up over us...that was just bad luck, but once inside 24 hours I could see it was aimed right for us and we were in trouble. Also...in a system with a general SW flow like that the elevation that often causes that enhanced band NW of baltimore in MD is really offset because the flow is parrallell to the ridges. We don't get any enhanced lift with that trajectory so my area is left just as vulnerable to dry slots as anyone else. I still have a temperature advantage of course but my added lift advantage is neutralized. So I saw it as possible although a rare thing and it was worse then usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 This low pressure track NE Indiana-Ohio-western PA while strengthening is +NAO behavior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Man I would love the HRDERPS to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, Scraff said: Man I would love the HRDERPS to be right. HRRRRDERRRRPSSSSS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3K gets snow TV down through the cities Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: This low pressure track NE Indiana-Ohio-western PA while strengthening is +NAO behavior The blocking is just setting in, there is a HUGE ridge left over in the east as the system approaches...its starting out so far northwest...and any system is going to search out the thermal boundary to maximize baroclinicity and that boundary is way the hell up north...it does eventually hit a wall and that is why it stalls and retrogrades and doesnt keep moving poleward but given all those factors it's not "impossible" or crazy that its taking such a track. We have a better chance once the blocking pattern is more mature and the antecedent airmass isnt as wrecked and there isn't a HUGE ridge in the east going into the event. Some ridging can be overcome but there are limits...the fact that we are even close given what the map looks like right now is a testament to how strong the block is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The blocking is just setting in, there is a HUGE ridge left over in the east as the system approaches...its starting out so far northwest...and any system is going to search out the thermal boundary to maximize baroclinicity and that boundary is way the hell up north...it does eventually hit a wall and that is why it stalls and retrogrades and doesnt keep moving poleward but given all those factors it's not "impossible" or crazy that its taking such a track. We have a better chance once the blocking pattern is more mature and the antecedent airmass isnt as wrecked and there isn't a HUGE ridge in the east going into the event. Some ridging can be overcome but there are limits...the fact that we are even close given what the map looks like right now is a testament to how strong the block is. I've found in research that there is no lag between Pacific pattern and SE ridge. chicken-egg and the Atlantic ridge in this case is anomalous considering the -5 sigma NAO right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I see a missed call from fema. Are they robodialing about the wind? Edit. No it's jackass telemarketers spoofing caller id Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, smokeybandit said: I see a missed call from fema. Are they robodialing about the wind? FEMA doesn't do that, if anything it's from your county OEM or 911 call center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The upper energy is about 40 miles south at 18... Edit: really doesn't mean anything... it is east at 30 Edit: Edit: which might be a good thing for the 7th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: The upper energy is about 40 miles south at 18 40..thats a precise assessment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Seems like a fair number of the hi-res / short term models try to hit Harford/Cecil counties and mappy with TV Snow tomorrow night...maybe a quick inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I've found in research that there is no lag between Pacific pattern and SE ridge. chicken-egg and the Atlantic ridge in this case is anomalous considering the -5 sigma NAO right now The current eastern CONUS ridge is anomalous regardless of NAO phase and the NAO is at near record levels also. So naturally that combo is almost unheard of. But the CONUS ridge predates the NAO. It was the established pattern. The -5 sigma NAO ridge is just now traversing into the prime location. So blaming or linking the NAO with the SE ridge seems off given the SE ridge was there first. The NAO does break down the eastern CONUS ridge quickly. The anomalouse ridge has just retrograded into NAO space. 36 hours ago it was centered north of England. 24 hours ago it was over Iceland, way too east based to help much. Only within the last 12 hours has it entered the prime nao domain for us. And within another 24 hours it breaks down the eastern ridge by forcing this system to turn southeast and knock down heights in the east. That is the NAO doing its work. Remove that NAO ridge and we would continue to torch and this storm would cut way up into canada. The problem is the system gets "TOO BLOCKED" and sits at our latitude which opens room for ridging to form behind and above it a bit more then we want. But still even with that ridging the NAO forces the next trough to dig into the east again. That does not mean it will snow here. An NAO ridge does not guaruntee us snow. There are other moving parts that have to come togehter. But I clearly see the dirty work of the NAO going on and how it IS effecting the pattern to knock down the eastern CONUS ridge almost immediately and give us some threats thereafter. Those threats might not work out but what were you expecting...the ridge to get over greenland and INSTANTLY a 960 low to be over the Va Capes? We were entering this NAO phase with probably the worst inherent conditions possible. Things get better pretty rapidly imo given where were coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: 40..thats a precise assessment Yep... did it myself http://tjpeiffer.com/crowflies.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 It's pretty uncommon to see widespread 30mph sustained on panels like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3k got snow into our area by a nifty little meso feature with a secondary surface reflection to the west of the main low as the upper energy catches up and phases in. Interesting at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's pretty uncommon to see widespread 30mph sustained on panels like this. Yeah, for the GFS to be spitting out winds like this is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Yeah, for the GFS to be spitting out winds like this is pretty good. Seems pretty legit on the wind. Very bullish sustained and gust panels compared to other events. Exposed areas could be pushing 60mph tomorrow. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 My hunch is that Carroll and Baltimore counties get added to the high wind warning later today, Harford and Cecil get advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The current eastern CONUS ridge is anomalous regardless of NAO phase and the NAO is at near record levels also. So naturally that combo is almost unheard of. But the CONUS ridge predates the NAO. It was the established pattern. The -5 sigma NAO ridge is just now traversing into the prime location. So blaming or linking the NAO with the SE ridge seems off given the SE ridge was there first. The NAO does break down the eastern CONUS ridge quickly. The anomalouse ridge has just retrograded into NAO space. 36 hours ago it was centered north of England. 24 hours ago it was over Iceland, way too east based to help much. Only within the last 12 hours has it entered the prime nao domain for us. And within another 24 hours it breaks down the eastern ridge by forcing this system to turn southeast and knock down heights in the east. That is the NAO doing its work. Remove that NAO ridge and we would continue to torch and this storm would cut way up into canada. The problem is the system gets "TOO BLOCKED" and sits at our latitude which opens room for ridging to form behind and above it a bit more then we want. But still even with that ridging the NAO forces the next trough to dig into the east again. That does not mean it will snow here. An NAO ridge does not guaruntee us snow. There are other moving parts that have to come togehter. But I clearly see the dirty work of the NAO going on and how it IS effecting the pattern to knock down the eastern CONUS ridge almost immediately and give us some threats thereafter. Those threats might not work out but what were you expecting...the ridge to get over greenland and INSTANTLY a 960 low to be over the Va Capes? We were entering this NAO phase with probably the worst inherent conditions possible. Things get better pretty rapidly imo given where were coming from. This is a good point. The NAO does lead. Stratosphere warming caused NAO may be different though, actually I think it is The storms rapid movement is strange. Look at how it loops back at end of GFS run. It's racing to escape rebuilding ridge or or what? The Pacific is relaxing toward -EPO progression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 we are in for some fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, mappy said: we are in for some fun! Isn't this tweet for NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, mappy said: we are in for some fun! Those winds coupled with snow ripping from the sky would be more....funner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Updated. $$ DCZ001-MDZ004-013-014-016>018-503>506-VAZ040-052>055-057-501-502- 505-506-020045- /O.EXT.KLWX.HW.W.0001.180302T0500Z-180303T1100Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Rappahannock- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-King George- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falmouth, Dahlgren, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling 1132 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY... * TIMING...Midnight tonight through Friday night. * WINDS...Northwest 25 to 40 mph with gusts around 60 to 70 mph. The strongest winds will be Friday morning through Friday evening. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, George BM said: Updated. 1132 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY... * TIMING...Midnight tonight through Friday night. * WINDS...Northwest 25 to 40 mph with gusts around 60 to 70 mph. The strongest winds will be Friday morning through Friday evening. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. && I don't believe the 70mph mention was in the first HWW yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, MN Transplant said: I don't believe the 70mph mention was in the first HWW yesterday. It was not..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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