yoda Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Hey... a dusting on the 00z GFS TT map at hr 54 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Anyone enjoying the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 15 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: It’s easy to shovel. We’re looking at 2 feet of wind with this one . Prolonged strong damaging wind is dangerous. Trees smash houses. Lives are altered forever. Some of us are desperate poor. Like myself. My house gets hit by a tree, my life is over, I will be homeless forever. This Windex event is fvcking serious. Dale City is full of super tall trees. The soil is pretty soaked. My region is a major disaster waiting to happen. LWX is warning us about power outages. That should count for something. Those ppl are professionals. They know the weather. This is serious serious business the next 2 to 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Most of the rain is moving due east, North Carolina will get a decent soaking rain, about 3 to 4 inches worth of fresh rain. We will get GRAZED by the northern edge, probably accruing an eighth of an inch of rain, Tops. The main event for us will be destructive damaging wind gusts Friday and Saturday as the anomalous storm actually moves south because of the incredible Block over Greenland. Damn I'm good. I should of been a weatherman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 From NWS Quote High Wind Warning URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 406 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 DCZ001-MDZ004-013-014-016>018-503>506-VAZ040-052>055-057-501-502- 505-506-011715- /O.UPG.KLWX.HW.A.0001.180302T0600Z-180303T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.HW.W.0001.180302T0800Z-180303T0000Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Rappahannock- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-King George- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falmouth, Dahlgren, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling 406 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has issued a High Wind Warning, which is in effect from 3 AM to 7 PM EST Friday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect. * TIMING...Overnight Thursday night through Friday night. * WINDS...Northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just looking over the 06Z runs (gfs, Nam) and we are somewhat close to getting something more meaningful then high winds and some mood flakes (maybe a slushy inch north and east). Shift that upper low and surface low 100 or even 50 miles south and speed up the upper level low dropping through our region by 6 hours or even 3 and I think we have a much better outcome (eta: temps cooperating of course). Shame it is probably a lot to ask for being 24-36 hours out. eta: Expecting to see a southward shift with the solution runs counter to what you would expect when you look at historical data on Miller Bs. Solution being presented is more in line and history would probably even argue for a further shifting northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 WWA posted for the mountains URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 332 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 MDZ001-WVZ512>514-011645- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0012.180302T0600Z-180302T2100Z/ Garrett-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker- Including the cities of Mountain Lake Park, Oakland MD, Grantsville, Terra Alta, Rowlesburg, Hazelton, Parsons, Hendricks, Saint George, Davis, Thomas, and Canaan Valley 332 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow accumulation of 3 to 6 inches expected. * WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In West Virginia, Eastern Preston, and Tucker Counties. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 4 PM EST Friday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions and reduced visibilities at times. Strong winds could also create blowing and drifting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Rain continues its steady eastward trek to the Atlantic Ocean. It hits a strong wall in central VA, it will get no farther north til probably late tonight. We wanted a Block, we got it lol. We will get a few drops, but not enough to measure, unless you happen to have a scanning electron microscope. Back to the Drought from now on, and to utter high wind destruction. And to livin' in the woods for me because there is no hope at all. Every tree in Dale City will be on the ground by Saturday night, every last one. There will not be enough money in all of fema to rebuild this place, and we will be casually, laconically written off like most of Houston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I just realized that we don’t get much rain from this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: I just realized that we don’t get much rain from this . nope, the rain isn't the story for us. It's the wind and any wrap around snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 No wind to speak of here in the middle of the Caribbean. I'm glad we had a dead tree taken down last fall. I wouldn't want to be swaying this storm from this far away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Mother-in-law is flying into Dulles late-morning tomorrow. She's going to need to drink more than usual on that flight, methinks. But she can be hammered when she arrives, for all I care. We just need her in town to give us some kid relief for a week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I guess a few flakes flying around the 95 corridor is all I can ask for. Once again, so close yet so far. Maybe we can get some surprise positive trends on the meso’s today? I’ll hold my breath... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: No wind to speak of here in the middle of the Caribbean. I'm glad we had a dead tree taken down last fall. I wouldn't want to be swaying this storm from this far away Are you on a cruise or on an island? My parents are heading back to FLL on a cruise right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: I guess a few flakes flying around the 95 corridor is all I can ask for. Once again, so close yet so far. Maybe we can get some surprise positive trends on the meso’s today? I’ll hold my breath... We are definitely not out of the game for something more but my money would be on the under as it has been for a few days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The 06z NAM Nest continues to be very impressive with regards to the wind threat. For DCA at around 9am tomorrow morning it has the following - (approximate) 42kts @ 1kft 52kts @ 1.5kft 58-60kts @ 2kft The wind strength ebbs and flows a bit throughout the day but that's pretty impressive. Would assume winds at 1000 feet wouldn't have a ton of trouble mixing down if there is good mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The 06z NAM Nest continues to be very impressive with regards to the wind threat. For DCA at around 9am tomorrow morning it has the following - (approximate) 42kts @ 1kft 52kts @ 1.5kft 58-60kts @ 2kft The wind strength ebbs and flows a bit throughout the day but that's pretty impressive. Would assume winds at 1000 feet wouldn't have a ton of trouble mixing down if there is good mixing. I'm interested in how strong the Ohio Valley low gets today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 40 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: I just realized that we don’t get much rain from this . I'm good with that. The less wet the ground the better. Also wind blown rain is hard to drive in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 28 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I really think ne Md could get a couple inches... and wraparound snow showers seem a lock for the remaining northern counties . It was also nice to see qpf increase at 6z on the mesos. Most put down up to an inch along the northern most areas . Should be fun nowcasting tomorrow . Yeah, will probably spend most of the day doing yard work and cleaning/rearranging my garage which has been long over due so as to be out in it. Probably forgo looking at the models at that point and let it do what it's going to do and hope for a positive bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 You know what they say, and what long bitter experience has long taught us here in the Mid Atlantic: Precipitation delayed, is precipitation DENIED. The start of any rain for N VA is getting pushed back and back, finally much farther back. I look longingly at all that torrential flooding rain in Ohio, and my heart just breaks, over and over and over again. Having a broken heart, is getting to be a way of life this year. An early start is 100% a very good thing, even if it does mean an earlier end. At least you got the precip. I keep waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting, and I got this deep sinking feeling deep in my gut, and I been living here for 50 years, and I KNOW what that deep sinking feeling means. I am going to be HIGH AND DRY today. And tonight. And Friday. My gut dont lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 24 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The 06z NAM Nest continues to be very impressive with regards to the wind threat. For DCA at around 9am tomorrow morning it has the following - (approximate) 42kts @ 1kft 52kts @ 1.5kft 58-60kts @ 2kft The wind strength ebbs and flows a bit throughout the day but that's pretty impressive. Would assume winds at 1000 feet wouldn't have a ton of trouble mixing down if there is good mixing. The timing of the wind is pretty interesting. A couple of the models have the wind really ramp up after sunrise, then dampen a bit, and then increase again in the afternoon as the low really gets going off the coast. Some of the others don't show this periodicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 47 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I really think ne Md could get a couple inches... and wraparound snow showers seem a lock for the remaining northern counties . It was also nice to see qpf increase at 6z on the mesos. Most put down up to an inch along the northern most areas . Should be fun nowcasting tomorrow . would be nice to see some snow, but I'm really meh on it. all the best stuff is north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The timing of the wind is pretty interesting. A couple of the models have the wind really ramp up after sunrise, then dampen a bit, and then increase again in the afternoon as the low really gets going off the coast. Some of the others don't show this periodicity. I always just assume best winds will be during the daylight hours with better mixing. Curious to see how much tree damage occurs from this. Been a while since we've had a really good wind storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inkstains Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 hours ago, Jebman said: Prolonged strong damaging wind is dangerous. Trees smash houses. Lives are altered forever. Some of us are desperate poor. Like myself. My house gets hit by a tree, my life is over, I will be homeless forever. This Windex event is fvcking serious. Dale City is full of super tall trees. The soil is pretty soaked. My region is a major disaster waiting to happen. LWX is warning us about power outages. That should count for something. Those ppl are professionals. They know the weather. This is serious serious business the next 2 to 3 days. Here, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 58 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I really think ne Md could get a couple inches... and wraparound snow showers seem a lock for the remaining northern counties . It was also nice to see qpf increase at 6z on the mesos. Most put down up to an inch along the northern most areas . Should be fun nowcasting tomorrow . 51 minutes ago, Scraff said: I guess a few flakes flying around the 95 corridor is all I can ask for. Once again, so close yet so far. Maybe we can get some surprise positive trends on the meso’s today? I’ll hold my breath... 6z HRPDERP is very bullish for NE MD. Like up to 5-6”. Has no support and the regular RGEM looks nothing like it, but we can hug it for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 49 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: We are definitely not out of the game for something more but my money would be on the under as it has been for a few days now. HRDPS is by far our best friend with getting that wrap around banding into our area. The NAM's are close but no cigar unless your in extreme northeast MD. The globals are of limited usefulness with placing meso features like that at this point. Ninja's by Losetoa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 6z HRPDERP is very bullish for NE MD. Like up to 5-6”. Has no support and the regular RGEM looks nothing like it, but we can hug it for fun. I have only really payed attention to it a few times but it did very well when I did...it nailed the dry slot screwzone that hurt me 2 weeks ago from 24-36 hours out when the RGEM totally missed it. That doesn't mean its right here...but it has been better with meso features then the rgem this winter IMO...from the few times I bothered to pay attention too it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Looks like NOAA is sending a plane out: Quote I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 A. A61/ DROP 8 (39.1N 72.1W)/ 02/0000Z B. AFXXX 03WSA TRACK61 C. 01/1745Z D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 02/0200Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Are you on a cruise or on an island? My parents are heading back to FLL on a cruise right now. Cruise. Coincidentally also out of fll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The DC dryslot is weird, a lagging effect of something that has been corrected GW-wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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