mappy Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It's south but also east. And the driving factor for us is the upper low not the surface. Everyone was looking at the surface and celebrating and showme was rightfully pointing out that's the h5 was going the wrong way and that's all that matters. WHAT?! How dare you tell me my 4" inches of digital snow is wrong. Hhmmmphfff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It's south but also east. And the driving factor for us is the upper low not the surface. Everyone was looking at the surface and celebrating and showme was rightfully pointing out that's the h5 was going the wrong way and that's all that matters. this storm is BS....i know it was never our storm but how the heck is it South Jersey and and Atlantic Citys storm....2 of the least likely places to get snow from a warm noreaster. I know the answer...just pisses me off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 It's weird, 570 NAO block has 0.6 correlation to a sink zone off the coast of Delaware in this H5 pattern minus 12-18 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, mappy said: WHAT?! How dare you tell me my 4" inches of digital snow is wrong. Hhmmmphfff. Even the 3k was a disappointment compared to 12z. I won't be one of those wet blankets that ruins others fun but another 1-2" event at this point...I'll pass. 12z idea of something more significant had my interest. But I'm not shocked it took it away. The best case scenario outlier model rarely works out. Biggest takeaway for me is I get fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ji said: this storm is BS....i know it was never our storm but how the heck is it South Jersey and and Atlantic Citys storm....2 of the least likely places to get snow from a warm noreaster. I know the answer...just pisses me off Yea and I'm sure places in NJ and NYC were screaming "how is this a southern storm?" In 1962 when central VA got 20-40". It depends where a storm like this cuts off. It cuts off too far northeast this time so places northeast of us get it. If it had cut off 200 miles southwest they would be unhappy. Just bad luck. That's all. In the grand scheme only a small area gets lucky and everyone else misses. Maybe we get lucky day 7 or 10 or 12. I see 3 more and better threads where the antecedent airmass won't be as hostile and we might not need so much to go perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea and I'm sure places in NJ and NYC were screaming "how is this a southern storm?" In 1962 when central VA got 20-40". It depends where a storm like this cuts off. It cuts off too far northeast this time so places northeast of us get it. If it had cut off 200 miles southwest they would be unhappy. Just bad luck. That's all. In the grand scheme only a small area gets lucky and everyone else misses. Maybe we get lucky day 7 or 10 or 12. I see 3 more and better threads where the antecedent airmass won't be as hostile and we might not need so much to go perfect. This is not over yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 can you get a blizzard warning from winds of 40 MPH and snow showers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I feel tempted to drive up to Elk Mountain but that will be a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: can you get a blizzard warning from winds of 40 MPH and snow showers? Probably not. Feb 14th 2015 was one of the most intense line of snow squalls, and we didn't get a blizzard warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, Interstate said: This is not over yet though. No not over but they are running the credits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 In the future look at the h5. That's what matters. You don't get significant precip from a surface low once it's northeast of you. The upper low was the key. 12z it started to cut off near Garrett county. This run it didn't do that until east of the coast. That's why the precip trended east. Nothing to do with the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 12z RGEM ensemble says PSU/Mappy land has a small chance of seeing something measurable. The far western crew should do well. Just about everyone else is shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 18z GFS gets some snow showers in at hr60... woo white rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z GFS gets some snow showers in at hr60... woo white rain Snow map says .5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 In the future look at the h5. That's what matters. You don't get significant precip from a surface low once it's northeast of you. The upper low was the key. 12z it started to cut off near Garrett county. This run it didn't do that until east of the coast. That's why the precip trended east. Nothing to do with the surface low. Look at rgem closes off at 48. That should be a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 It lost all of it's kick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 NAM is digging much more. Going to be more amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 NAM is so far north, not hitting all of potential energy available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 NJ getting destroyed on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: NJ getting destroyed on the NAM There’s still time for it to trend SW!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: There’s still time for it to trend SW!!!! No way. This one is done save the wind. Onward to next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The snow capital of the Mid Atlantic aka the beach does quite well on the 3k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 LWX on Twitter really hitting the wind threat hard for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Did undrafted free agent Delaware get picked up by Boston in the off season from the mid atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 The trrends have been laughably bad since 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ji said: The trrends have been laughably bad since 12z Just a warm up for next week my friend. That 18z run for 6-7th...you know how many steps back we will take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 24 minutes ago, yoda said: LWX on Twitter really hitting the wind threat hard for Friday This is a very serious serious situation, because the storm will be very slow to move, and the soil is moist from recent rains, and many trees will fall, lots power lines damaged. Property damage too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Seems like the GFS is delayed...00z not on IWM, TT or WxBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 14 minutes ago, nj2va said: Seems like the GFS is delayed...00z not on IWM, TT or WxBell. Just started on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 lol h5 is closed over us at hr 36 on 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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