yoda Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, cae said: ICON is the most bullish of the 12z globals for snow. The NAMs are still pretty much out on their own though. If they verify they should just call that a career and retire on a high note. Throw down the mic and spend the rest of their days forecasting how sunny it will be in San Diego. Going to be interesting to see what the 12z WRF-ARWs and WRF-NMM say... hope they agree with the 12z NAM twins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, cae said: ICON is the most bullish of the 12z globals for snow. The NAMs are still pretty much out on their own though. If they verify they should just call that a career and retire on a high note. Throw down the mic and spend the rest of their days forecasting how sunny it will be in San Diego. RGEM and HRDPS are not in range yet and both show potential for wrap around moving into the area at the end of their runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I am totally rooting for winds from this. Snow seems unlikely at least IMBY but gimme some winds to make pet balloons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 With the trees not foliated yet, would it be safe to assume far fewer trees will come down than in the spring or summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, Chase said: With the trees not foliated yet, would it be safe to assume far fewer trees will come down than in the spring or summer? It's been dry in recent months and we haven't had a wind storm in awhile so it's possible we could see some come up. Still like you said, there are no real areas that have leafed out. It will be interesting to see how PEPCOs tree trimming program has fared with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 11 minutes ago, Chase said: With the trees not foliated yet, would it be safe to assume far fewer trees will come down than in the spring or summer? It has been wet recently, so even without full leaves on trees, there could definitely be some issues regarding downed trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I know snow maps don't show everything but the GFS has definitely trended snowier and further south with the extent over the last 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Euro pushes some wet snow into the northern tier now. Surface is too warm for accums but wrap around does make it into MD on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 dynamic cooling thing like the NAM showed. Lets just get winds and call this a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, H2O said: dynamic cooling thing like the NAM showed. Lets just get winds and call this a win Both the Euro and GFS show pretty meager QPF totals around DC and south of DC for the event. Regardless of snow chances, the NAMs are on an island with QPF. It's hard to bet against the GFS/Euro combo for precip. Especially when there is a large disparity. I'll continue with zero expectations. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Sustained winds close to 30mph on the euro @ 18z on Friday. Gust panels still showing plenty of 60+ gusts around the region. That's a stretch but I agree with others that gusts into the low 50's are pretty likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Both the Euro and GFS show pretty meager QPF totals around DC and south of DC for the event. Regardless of snow chances, the NAMs are on an island with QPF. It's hard to bet against the GFS/Euro combo for precip. Especially when there is a large disparity. I'll continue with zero expectations. lol But the trend has been further south and west with accumulating snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Sustained winds close to 30mph on the euro @ 18z on Friday. Gust panels still showing plenty of 60+ gusts around the region. That's a stretch but I agree with others that gusts into the low 50's are pretty likely. we havent been screwed by a miller B for a while...we can check off that box now for winter fails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, Superstorm said: But the trend has been further south and west with accumulating snow. . Up north there has been but we are so far out of the game I don't think we stand much chance. Even with wrap around making it down to the northern tier, temps are still in the upper 30's and low 40's. All the way to Philly too so it's not like cold is close or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Up north there has been but we are so far out of the game I don't think we stand much chance. Even with wrap around making it down to the northern tier, temps are still in the upper 30's and low 40's. All the way to Philly too so it's not like cold is close or anything. Not disagreeing with you... but then why are the NAMs so far off with accumulating snow down into our region? Back portion of a remnant CCB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Not disagreeing with you... but then why are the NAMs so far off with accumulating snow down into our region? Back portion of a remnant CCB? Just my opinion but I think the NAMs are grossly overdoing QPF. Without heavy precip we can forget dynamic cooling. Seeing the GFS/Euro very close with QPF makes it easy for me to completely dismiss the NAMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Even MOS guidance, which typically mutes winds, has 30 - 35kts sustains at DCA. That's significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Sign me up for a wind event. Wind is the reason I like tropical. Very excited for Friday. Hope this is one of the wind storms we all remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, Subtropics said: Sign me up for a wind event. Wind is the reason I like tropical. Very excited for Friday. Hope this is one of the wind storms we all remember. Ditto. I don't care at all if we don't see a flake. The wind is what I'm really interested in with this one. I actually don't want precip moving in. It could mess up the mixing layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 we do wind well. HW watch issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: we do wind well. HW watch issued. * WINDS...Northwest 25 to 40 mph with the potential for gusts around 60 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 High Wind Watch: https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=19736870 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 12z NAM was a nice wrap around hit here, 6-8" and wind. 18z NAM at 15hrs is holding energy back vs 12z, maybe it will show a bigger hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: 12z NAM was a nice wrap around hit here, 6-8" and wind. 18z NAM at 15hrs is holding energy back vs 12z Is that good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 FWIW, 18z NAM at hr 30 has the primary in N WV... 12z NAM at 36 was in W PA/E O/extreme N WV border marker (where all 3 meet together)... so probably about 100 miles shift south on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, yoda said: FWIW, 18z NAM at hr 30 has the primary in N WV... 12z NAM at 36 was in W PA/E OH border Was just noticing that. Better overall look on the surface pressures leading into the coastal. 500's though are lagging a little behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Really strange that the 33hr map isn't snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: Was just noticing that. Better overall look on the surface pressures leading into the coastal. 500's though are lagging a little behind. Yeah, hr 36 has coastal transfer complete looks like... 100-150 miles east of ACY at 992mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Another 150 mile shift in the next 24 hours and maybe we can start talking inches instead of flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twisty Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 hours ago, stormtracker said: A Nor'Easter...in the Central US. Well, ok. I'll give them as many Nor'Easters as they want, as long as they don't give us tornado alley. 3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: It’s easy to shovel. We’re looking at 2 feet of wind with this one . But what about the drifts??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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