Ji Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 GFS tried to give us snow too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: GFS tried to give us snow too yeah, its very similar at 500/700 levels to the NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: yeah, its very similar at 500/700 levels to the NAM run. CMC has decent precip at 48 hours over you it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 nice job Yahoo news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 A Nor'Easter...in the Central US. Well, ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Woo wind. Love wind. My favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Woo wind. Love wind. My favorite. It’s easy to shovel. We’re looking at 2 feet of wind with this one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Woo wind. Love wind. My favorite. Yeah, not fun. It's also something that doesn't get as much attention as it should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Bringing over my posts from the obs thread for verification purposes: 00z Euro (usually exaggerated) Stepping through the models available on weather.us, peak gusts at my house: 00z Euro: 66+mph 12z NAM 3k: 60+mph 06z Swiss: 60mph 06z German: 66+mph 12z GFS: low 50s mph They may all be overdone (minus the GFS), but that is a heck of a signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 mods don't we have rules about mentioning march 2001? i mean ffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 11 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Bringing over my posts from the obs thread for verification purposes: 00z Euro (usually exaggerated) Stepping through the models available on weather.us, peak gusts at my house: 00z Euro: 66+mph 12z NAM 3k: 60+mph 06z Swiss: 60mph 06z German: 66+mph 12z GFS: low 50s mph They may all be overdone (minus the GFS), but that is a heck of a signal. I only started looking at the wind power panels this year when weather.us came out with it but it's been better than the gust panels. Mean winds @ 330' seem to translate fairly well to peak gusts on the ground. Mid to upper 40's seems pretty likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I don't recall a time where Euro big wind gusts were verified over our region. One of the few things the Euro doesn't do particularly well (which is fine). I agree. The gust panels have been too high pretty much 100% of the time. I have noticed the 330' wind power panels to do fairly well though. Or just use a rule of thumb with multiplying 925's by 75% or so. That usually works ok too. Which would also be in the mid to upper 40's with low 50's certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Looking forward to my rain changing to TS force wind driven snow for 30 minutes...... and then having power go out for 8 hours. Wind is one thing we DO WELL down here, I'd be surprised if airport does not have a 70 mph gust and 58-60 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 24 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It’s easy to shovel. We’re looking at 2 feet of wind with this one . Looks like 3 foot drifts on the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I agree. The gust panels have been too high pretty much 100% of the time. I have noticed the 330' wind power panels to do fairly well though. Or just use a rule of thumb with multiplying 925's by 75% or so. That usually works ok too. Which would also be in the mid to upper 40's with low 50's certainly possible. The 330' numbers make a lot of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I agree. The gust panels have been too high pretty much 100% of the time. I have noticed the 330' wind power panels to do fairly well though. Or just use a rule of thumb with multiplying 925's by 75% or so. That usually works ok too. Which would also be in the mid to upper 40's with low 50's certainly possible. TT sounding from the NAM nest is ugly. Very well-mixed and fairly deep PBL with 75 kt near the top. 50+ gusts would absolutely be a threat if this is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I agree. The gust panels have been too high pretty much 100% of the time. I have noticed the 330' wind power panels to do fairly well though. Or just use a rule of thumb with multiplying 925's by 75% or so. That usually works ok too. Which would also be in the mid to upper 40's with low 50's certainly possible. If that verifies - that's more of a pretty standard wind event in our area. That would be low to mid advisory criteria and definitely not HWW criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 This could be a fun little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: If that verifies - that's more of a pretty standard wind event in our area. That would be low to mid advisory criteria and definitely not HWW criteria. high risk beat me to it, but 3km NAM has a lot of nasty soundings wind-wise near DCA at 18z FRI... would def be HWW criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 HRDPS is even further southwest with the system at 48 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 So when are the blizzard watches being posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: This could be a fun little event. Agreed. Nor'easters are fun because you never know exactly how they're going to track/form and any small shift can make a difference. On top of that, the bar has been set basically at 0" for any snow. So if anybody does end up with some it'll be awesome. Will be fun to nowcast either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: HRDPS is even further southwest with the system at 48 hours... yes, yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, learned this through my tropical exploits. Never thought of the 330' wind power panels though. I can't say I've been tracking much recently, or that I have any faith we won't do anything but fail (again) in the precip department, but I will come out of hibernation for big wind potential. That looks like the highest confidence aspect of this storm right now. Like I said, I only recently began using them as a tool and have never really mentioned them but the premise makes 100% sense and my obs this year back up my theory. It's a mean hourly panel @ unobstructed 330' above ground. A nice snapshot of the blend of gusts and sustained without obstruction so the wind speed on the panels will be somewhere between sustained and max but since they are unobstructed with terrain/buildings etc it seems to connect well with the mean hourly speeds translating to gusts on the ground. Just another tool in the toolbox. I like using the 75% of 925s as well. That does a great job at ballparking gusts when mixing is good (which seems to be the case this time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: yes, yes it is. Ironic that often the high res regionals are the most amplified but that often means north...but in this case with a more amplified quicker phase it might be causing them to come back south and have a better organized precip shield associated with the upper low. Its just odd to see them doing the opposite of normal bias kinda sorta in a weird way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 11 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: If that verifies - that's more of a pretty standard wind event in our area. That would be low to mid advisory criteria and definitely not HWW criteria. HWW criteria requires 58mph gusts. I think the chance that some where in the region goes to 58 is high enough that they will hoist HWWs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: HWW criteria requires 58mph gusts. I think the chance that some where in the region goes to 58 is high enough that they will hoist HWWs. Agreed. Especially once you get north of I-66 where the terrain gets a bit higher. I'd say 70/30 chance a high wind watch goes out by noon tomorrow for 2/3rds of the LWX CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 ICON is the most bullish of the 12z globals for snow. The NAMs are still pretty much out on their own though. If they verify they should just call that a career and retire on a high note. Throw down the mic and spend the rest of their days forecasting how sunny it will be in San Diego. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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