Ji Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Icon actually looks like the 6z GFS but with a quicker south transfer... but its the ICON so who cares.Icon offers some interesting concepts from time to time and those ideas are not always wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 urg--euro with almost identical storm next week for us. Another Miller B miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: urg--euro with almost identical storm next week for us. Another Miller B miss 6-7 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: 6-7 right? yep. colder version the initial primary is too north...again....i thought -NAO was suppose to prevent this crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 maybe we will get a march 1999 type storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: yep. colder version the initial primary is too north...again....i thought -NAO was suppose to prevent this crap 7-8 days away...wouldn't worry too much..probably will fail but will change its look...you already know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: 7-8 days away...wouldn't worry too much..probably will fail but will change its look...you already know that. whats happening to the march 1-2 storm is killing us...its just drifting east slowly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: whats happening to the march 1-2 storm is killing us...its just drifting east slowly now we know...high pressure ridge is bad most times in the Atlantic...stationary low pressure is bad too in the Atlantic...how many things have to line up before we get snow? sometimes I am amazed it has ever snowed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: maybe we will get a march 1999 type storm That's one of my favorite storms. I remember watching the NCAA tournament and watching ridiculously heavy, wet snow pile up outside. I feel like we got 6-10 from that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: now we know...high pressure ridge is bad most times in the Atlantic...stationary low pressure is bad too in the Atlantic...how many things have to line up before we get snow? sometimes I am amazed it has ever snowed here. euro has something day 10.....can the cold hold on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: whats happening to the march 1-2 storm is killing us...its just drifting east slowly Yea, that dance isn't working out so far but we're still quite a ways away from knowing exactly how first storm progresses/tracks over the next 5 days. Can't write anything off but for now the track off the coast isn't doing us any favors. Going to be a challenge to get the next closed ULL to track favorably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: That's one of my favorite storms. I remember watching the NCAA tournament and watching ridiculously heavy, wet snow pile up outside. I feel like we got 6-10 from that one. This one? https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/misc/990309.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: euro has something day 10.....can the cold hold on.. no..no it can't. deep down you know its true. guess it depends on 6-7th deal and the block status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: This one? https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/misc/990309.html No, I thought it was March 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: No, I thought it was March 21. http://www.jhuapl.edu/weather/education/ACON_Files/1999Mar_Precip.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: No, I thought it was March 21. Huh... Here is March 9, 1999 fwiw -- http://www.glenallenweather.com/upload/history/dailyevents/mar.htm 1999THE UNUSUAL SNOWSTORM OF MARCH 9, 1999 A strong high-pressure system was helping to drive a very cold, dry air mass southward into Virginia. It appeared the dry air mass over the region would help keep the accumulations down. The very narrow band of heavy snow in central and northern Ohio during night moved rapidly towards Washington during the pre-dawn hours. On the morning of the 9th snow began falling in Washington and western suburbs. The band station expanded eastward and became almost stationary, lasting through the afternoon. The snow band was oriented east to west, and center just a few miles south of Washington, DC. The heaviest snow fell in central Fairfax County, where 10 - 12 inches accumulated. Reagan National Airport reported 8.4 inches of snow - the heaviest March snowfall since the storm of March 28 - 29, 1942. The northern side of Baltimore received only 2 inches of snow while Charlottesville and Richmond received very light accumulations. The Annandale-Barcroft Hills Weather Center received 10.2 inches. (p. 102-103 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ji said: euro has something day 10.....can the cold hold on.. When are we going to learn day 10 means nothing. Until a storm is within at least a week why even bother? We've had 10 feet of day 10 snow this winter alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Hmmmm, maybe I'm thinking of a different day. Long time ago but I could have sworn it was March 21, 1999. March 9 doesn't really match up because it sounds like the Baltimore area didn't get much snow out of that. This was a heavy, wet snow, huge flakes. Probably got 6-8 inches out of it. I will say the timing on March 9 would seem to fit though. It seemed like it hit just before dawn and lasted into the late afternoon (if I'm even remember correctly, now I'm doubting myself). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 16 minutes ago, Subtropics said: When are we going to learn day 10 means nothing. Until a storm is within at least a week why even bother? We've had 10 feet of day 10 snow this winter alone. Never. We are addicted to the day 10 drug...it always looks so good...like your first drink of the night..always way better than your last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 If your last drink is the worst of your night then you're doing drinking wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 EPS definitely trended in the right direction for the second storm in line. Keeping things interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 28 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Hmmmm, maybe I'm thinking of a different day. Long time ago but I could have sworn it was March 21, 1999. March 9 doesn't really match up because it sounds like the Baltimore area didn't get much snow out of that. This was a heavy, wet snow, huge flakes. Probably got 6-8 inches out of it. I will say the timing on March 9 would seem to fit though. It seemed like it hit just before dawn and lasted into the late afternoon (if I'm even remember correctly, now I'm doubting myself). Maybe you were watching one of the conference tournaments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS definitely trended in the right direction for the second storm in line. Keeping things interesting... i always felt like March 6-8 was our best chance...although it could be the one after..or it could be January 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 37 minutes ago, Subtropics said: When are we going to learn day 10 means nothing. Until a storm is within at least a week why even bother? We've had 10 feet of day 10 snow this winter alone. Why are you in here then? Just to tell us how stupid we are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Why are you in here then? Just to tell us how stupid we are? No I respect it, I'd be like y'all if it were tropical. Just remember we were supposed to be entering a historical good period right about now, and of course it has again been pushed back to D10. I won't say this winter is over, but come on if it couldn't work in January I'm not betting on March D10s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS definitely trended in the right direction for the second storm in line. Keeping things interesting... the euro mean snowfall seems to be the same everytime i run it...our area is barely in the blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Subtropics said: No I respect it, I'd be like y'all if it were tropical. Just remember we were supposed to be entering a historical good period right about now, and of course it has again been pushed back to D10. I won't say this winter is over, but come on if it couldn't work in January I'm not betting on March D10s. This was never supposed to be our chance. It was always march 5-15th. Still is. Some are impatient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: This was never supposed to be our chance. It was always march 5-15th. Still is. Some are impatient. I can't tell if people can't read or just have terrible memories or if they're all just different people??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 18 minutes ago, Jandurin said: I can't tell if people can't read or just have terrible memories or if they're all just different people??? Some got excited prematurely but I think part of it is some don't really care about process or pattern. They see snow or no snow. So to them there is no difference between a pattern with potential that simply doesn't work out and a crap pattern with no chance. If both end with no big snow then it's the same. For those that pay attention to more then snow maps there is a huge difference. Win or fail the pattern the next 2 weeks is nothing like anything we had this winter. We are tracking the potential not discreet events at range. To some all the see is snow or no so pattern analysis is a waste to them. That's fine. But then just don't do it. Complaining all the time about others doing it seems silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 37 minutes ago, Interstate said: Maybe you were watching one of the conference tournaments Yeah maybe. I could have sworn it was the Duke-Temple regional final but I could be mixing things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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