Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I see like 2 southern solutions on the 12z GEFS. Over half look like a solid MA hit with typical climo favored look with snow distribution. Looks better than 6z. What about the rest lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Did I say that? Don’t remember typing that...is it a disaster? Yea man. You are right. Ukmet is terrible GEFS is decent. Prepare for a step or two back on Euro. NOT saying it will happen but just prepare. Still week out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Euro not as fast with the SW as the GFS through 96, good sign I would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, Amped said: Euro not as fast with the SW as the GFS through 96, good sign I would say. Looks like the closed low is diving over St. Louis instead of western MO, gfs like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, LP08 said: Looks like the closed low is diving over St. Louis instead of western MO, gfs like. Yeah, it didn't dig the NS as much. Probably the same outcome as the GFS, unless the h5 runs us over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Amped said: Yeah, tt didn't dig the NS as much. Probably the same outcome as the GFS, unless the h5 runs us over. Yeah not having it dig more west really flattens heights in front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, LP08 said: Yeah not having it dig more west really flattens heights in front. Closed H5 in the upstate of SC...Not ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 Looks similar to GFS, at least at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Seeing the euro coming in "unamped" in the med range is not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Subtropics said: You live in freakin PA. It can snow by you in April. Those of us below 39N need a mini miracle in Mid march... We have an entirely different climo. No...you really dont. Let me help w/ a little Goegraphy since you were obviously asleep during most/all of it. I am in Akron Pa Lanc County and live 28.69 miles from the MD border. 9/10 storrms evolve quite similarly as the northern half of this subforum (+/- a couple inches). I'm just as butthurt as most of you guys. Thanks for the input. Good grief...every year one of you tries this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Seeing the euro coming in "unamped" in the med range is not a good sign. Well I think the shortwave was stronger than 0z, but the flow stays progressive and the wave stays positively tilted. 0z went neutral and then negative in a textbook progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Stop quoting Ji and put him on ignore. Thats your friendly neighborhood announcment Thanks, The staff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The trend for less ridging ahead of the storm. If there was ever a trend that I would expect to reverse itself in the final 72hrs, it'd be that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Well I think the shortwave was stronger than 0z, but the flow stays progressive and the wave stays positively tilted. 0z went neutral and then negative in a textbook progression. EPS will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: EPS will save us. the control run will give us 4 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Well I think the shortwave was stronger than 0z, but the flow stays progressive and the wave stays positively tilted. 0z went neutral and then negative in a textbook progression. just imagine if we had a -NAO where the flow wasnt so progressive and waves had more room/time to amplify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Don't worry it's setting up a day 10 threat lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 My problem is with the 2nd NS kicker. If ECMWF and CMC are correct, it will be in the way, and possibly phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Don't worry it's setting up a day 10 threat lol. Oh heck no...I refuse to look beyond this one...this is it for me. This goes poof, I'm out (can't imagine there's much potential for getting a better look!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Either I am getting better at this or maybe I got lucky, but by 144 that zvort map seemed to foreshadow less tilt. Could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Perfect storm placement this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 the JMA is so far south that jacksonsville is in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 15 minutes ago, Ji said: just imagine if we had a -NAO where the flow wasnt so progressive and waves had more room/time to amplify Part of the problem might be that the nao isn't breaking down as fast leading to the 50/50 being more suppressive and now allowing the trough to go negative and amplify as much. That's also why some guidance is trending colder and towards a possible threat after. But it's too soon to say it's the start of the death of the threat. That can change a lot between now and next Monday. But today's trends weren't good imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Part of the problem might be that the nao isn't breaking down as fast leading to the 50/50 being more suppressive and now allowing the trough to go negative and amplify as much. That's also why some guidance is trending colder and towards a possible threat after. But it's too soon to say it's the start of the death of the threat. That can change a lot between now and next Monday. But today's trends weren't good imo. I would argue that until we get Wednesdays system out of the way we may not know how suppressive the next storm system may be... just IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 34 minutes ago, pasnownut said: No...you really dont. Let me help w/ a little Goegraphy since you were obviously asleep during most/all of it. I am in Akron Pa Lanc County and live 28.69 miles from the MD border. 9/10 storrms evolve quite similarly as the northern half of this subforum (+/- a couple inches). I'm just as butthurt as most of you guys. Thanks for the input. Good grief...every year one of you tries this. 29 miles from the MD PA boarder puts you 125 miles from DC lol. DC is closer to Richmond VA than to you dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, yoda said: I would argue that until we get Wednesdays system out of the way we may not know how suppressive the next storm system may be... just IMO What page is that in the weenie handbook? I know I’ve read that somewhere before. Might have been the chapter titled “Desperation Mode” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I'm like 20 miles from DC and I feel like DC has a significantly different climate than mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But today's trends weren't good imo. True for the Ops maybe but I think the H5 progression on the GEFS and GEPS are arguably the best yet. Let’s see what the EPS serves up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Jandurin said: I'm like 20 miles from DC and I feel like DC has a significantly different climate than mine. He's trying to argue 2 hours away in PA shares 39N subtropical climo lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Subtropics said: 29 miles from the MD PA boarder puts you 125 miles from DC lol. DC is closer to Richmond VA than to you dude. This isn't just a DC subforum. South central PA has similar winter climo to many of us who live north of Baltimore, and all of MD falls within this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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