Cobalt Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 DT aleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I don't like the position of the HP. Why can't we have it north of the coast. Is that too much to ask????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Nobody should be freaking out over 1 model run. We are 7-8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The GFS, ICON, and GGEM all manage to miss in the same general way. They eject the energy in pieces and thus nothing really amplifies right. That is a concern. But the general setup is there and that is the kind of thing the models will struggle with. A lot of times they start to pick up on discreet waves coming out at this range...and it messes things up. Often there is SOME splitting of energy but in the end often the idea of a big storm comes back when the models then figure out which piece to key on and amplify. It's way too soon to worry about any of it too much. But I will admit that strung out ejection of waves is NOT what I wanted to see from the 12z guidance so far. and the euro is over amplified....i saw alot of these types of solutions with the euro ensemble members. Probably is the reason that snow fall mean is still the same as it was a a few days ago. Between now and Wednesday night is the most gut wrenching period. We probably wont survive it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ian said: Top analog in EPS for NHEM is late Feb 2010. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis/20100223-20100228-5.46.jpg That was a pretty cool storm, I visited my parents who live in the Hudson Valley of NY and they had about 16-18 inches of paste. We went up to snowshoe Beat Mountain and there was about 16-20 inches at the bottom, and like 30-40 inches at the top. Pretty amazing to snowshoe in snow that deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ian said: Top analog in EPS for NHEM is late Feb 2010. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis/20100223-20100228-5.46.jpg nobody cared at that point but that was a terrible miss for us in any other winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: That was a pretty cool storm, I visited my parents who live in the Hudson Valley of NY and they had about 16-18 inches of paste. We went up to snowshoe Beat Mountain and there was about 16-20 inches at the bottom, and like 30-40 inches at the top. Pretty amazing to snowshoe in snow that deep. Pattern has some 2010 vibes just no roaring Nino STJ. The tomorrow night storm is a little Feb 9-10 like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: nobody cared at that point but that was a terrible miss for us in any other winter If we ever have a good winter from start to finish DC could top 100". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Arguably the best run of this storm occurred 24 hours ago. Since then, the runs have gradually gotten worse. In addition, the whole event has sped up more than one day. Unfortunately. I don't like this trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ian said: If we ever have a good winter from start to finish DC could top 100". there are 90 days in a winter. Winter was only good on Dec 5 Dec 19,Dec 20,Jan 30,Feb 3, Feb 5, Feb 6, Feb 9 and Feb 10 i think. 9 days out 90 were good. 81 sucked. And that was a historic winter:) Imagine are usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ji said: and the euro is over amplified....i saw alot of these types of solutions with the euro ensemble members. Probably is the reason that snow fall mean is still the same as it was a a few days ago. Between now and Wednesday night is the most gut wrenching period. We probably wont survive it..... What is gut wrenching is how close we are to a legit late save. If Wednesday trends a bit more amplified...or if next week works out... but if both fail...and with a close miss on both...it probably escalates this into the worst fail winter of all time IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Ji said: there are 90 days in a winter. Winter was only good on Dec 19,Dec 20,Jan 30,Feb 3, Feb 5, Feb 6, Feb 9 and Feb 10 i think. 8 days out 90 were good. 82 sucked. And that was a historic winter:) Imagine are usual You can kinda count the tracking days as good days, especially in that winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: Arguably the best run of this storm occurred 24 hours ago. Since then, the runs have gradually gotten worse. In addition, the whole event has sped up more than one day. Unfortunately. I don't like this trend. no...last nights 00z euro and tonights 6z were the best runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: What is gut wrenching is how close we are to a legit late save. If Wednesday trends a bit more amplified...or if next week works out... but if both fail...and with a close miss on both...it probably escalates this into the worst fail winter of all time IMO. you know in your heart of hearts that both will likely fail:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: you know in your heart of hearts that both will likely fail:) Depends on location... I think northeast 1/3 of our forum has a legit chance this week. Your area...probably not. So some places have 2 shots and some have 1. Lets not overreact to one bad model cycle. Last night was the best cycle yet...so one bad one isnt the end but it wasnt a great 12z so far. And suppressed and strung out was the way most of the ensemble members failed that did fail. But I would rather be dealing with this problem then something going north of us right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I know its 10:1 and won't work out exactly like this, but this is classic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 hours ago, pasnownut said: So lets just put out a disclaimer that moving forward, we ALL know how things can fail March/sun/temps....blah blah blah. We get that. Acceptinig failure is a prerequisit for this hobby, becuase many/most times we do, as tellies/patterns don't line up quite right. We get that. We also know its the first "BIG" run and it can go poof. We get that too. But what most of us also know, is that when things line up, it CAN snow, and snow BIG...and yes in March (ya'll are old enough to remember a couple March doozies). This upcoming period has been showing up and the models are responding accordingly. Is will likely be the best window we've had for some time as the NAO has been basically non existent, and with it trending favorable, some should just sit back and enjoy the ride. Weve been swingin at curveballs and changups for a long time, and now with the NAO on board, it may just be a rising fastball. The window may be a brief one, but its better than what we've had for some time. Carry on... You live in freakin PA. It can snow by you in April. Those of us below 39N need a mini miracle in Mid march... We have an entirely different climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 16 minutes ago, Ji said: you know in your heart of hearts that both will likely fail:) Probably but what else do we have to do at the tail end of winter where it hasn’t really snowed much at all. Hell Mary by definition really means you are at the end of your rope and it’s either this or the pits of hell..I’m in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 25 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Arguably the best run of this storm occurred 24 hours ago. Since then, the runs have gradually gotten worse. In addition, the whole event has sped up more than one day. Unfortunately. I don't like this trend. Not true at all. 06z today was massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 GEFS seems further north as whole than OPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: GEFS seems further north as whole than OPS 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, winterymix said: BOOM Thats from 6z this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: is UKMET still considered an elite model..or JV....because its a disaster at 144. Way too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: is UKMET still considered an elite model..or JV....because its a disaster at 144. Way too far south Did I say that? Don’t remember typing that...is it a disaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Thats from 6z this morning... Good catch. Still, we have strong 500 mb vorticity south of us with some blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I see like 2 southern solutions on the 12z GEFS. Over half look like a solid MA hit with typical climo favored look with snow distribution. Looks better than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 ^^^ Nice. That's what I was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Did I say that? Don’t remember typing that...is it a disaster?Yea man. You are right. Ukmet is terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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