Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12z GFS looks like a disaster...i guess thats how some of the euro ensembles failed. But better that its south than north i guess at this point. Except we never get a north trend when we need it..and never get a south trend when we need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 500 low over Charleston, SC rarely works out great for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: 12z GFS looks like a disaster...i guess thats how some of the euro ensembles failed. But better that its south than north i guess at this point. Except we never get a north trend when we need it..and never get a south trend when we need it Right where we want it my man. Use this time to put up shading to protect your snow from sun angle season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: 12z GFS looks like a disaster...i guess thats how some of the euro ensembles failed. But better that its south than north i guess at this point. Except we never get a north trend when we need it..and never get a south trend when we need it Dude, stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 What a monster. That thing is bigger than PD2. Just a massive storm as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: For 7 day leads it looks very good to me. More cold available in the mid levels. As long as we don't trend to a rainstorm or lose the storm all together we're good. No complaints on my part. General overall look is still there. And with it being an op somewhat at range that is all that matters to me. Biggest takeaway I had is that the ridging in the west goes to town this run. That is one thing I don't want to see in future runs or we will probably end up with what we had this run, a progressive low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 12z GFS looks like a disaster...i guess thats how some of the euro ensembles failed. But better that its south than north i guess at this point. Except we never get a north trend when we need it..and never get a south trend when we need it CMC has nothing...not even a hint of a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 6z was a perfectly timed -tilt over Nashville, this run doesn't make it till the Carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 GFS isn't what we want for our backyards The good news is that it's well South, at least, and we're still in the game. Just no pretty snowfall maps for this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Dude, stop i just lost 22 inches of snow. From 22 to 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Thought this was going to be a high fastball. Damn it! Someone go out to the mound and slap goofus upside the head. The nerve. Sending in a knuckleball... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 There is a big different between needing a NORTH trend and needing a WEST trend. Sometimes people confuse the two. North trends happen much easier. So many ways...more amplified system, slight shift north of boundary.... but west trends rarely work out (models are more often not progressive enough or phase too quickly) and usually when we need that its a fail. I am fine with seeing a STJ system slide west to east south of us at this range. This is not the same as needing a NW or W trend like both January storms that hit the immediate coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Ji said: i just lost 22 inches of snow. From 22 to 0 /thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Ji said: i just lost 22 inches of snow. From 22 to 0 You know you don't want the op GFS to give you 22 inches for multiple runs a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Better south than north. It's still there, so no worry here. While we would all like the lead up we had to January 2016, that's not always going to happen, especially with a significant storm Tuesday/Wednesday still to get through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Ji said: i just lost 22 inches of snow. From 22 to 0 Dude, we're still 6-7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: What a monster. That thing is bigger than PD2. Just a massive storm as modeled. nothing close to PD2 in terms of size. PD2 had one of the best moisture fetches id ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ian said: You know you don't want the op GFS to give you 22 inches for multiple runs a week out. lol yea...i just didnt want zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 GGEM leaves too much energy behind and brings everything out in strung out weak pieces...no storm. But don't worry its setting up and EPIC HECS....wait for it...........Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is a big different between needing a NORTH trend and needing a WEST trend. Sometimes people confuse the two. North trends happen much easier. So many ways...more amplified system, slight shift north of boundary.... but west trends rarely work out (models are more often not progressive enough or phase too quickly) and usually when we need that its a fail. I am fine with seeing a STJ system slide west to east south of us at this range. This is not the same as needing a NW or W trend like both January storms that hit the immediate coastline. I don't think we're really even in "trend" range, esp in a season like this. The models should be more stable in a blocking regime and maybe the last event/s plus this week are modeled better than we saw early winter but still not amazing. Typical Nina stuff. I'd rather have a fat STJ bowling ball or something but the ensembles have been focusing in on a pretty solid pattern. I think for now we still have to mostly look at that and disregard a lot of the op details. We should start to get into a better place over the next few days. It is March 10+... DC norm is 0.6" of snow from that point on... so people should probably not have insane expectations even though they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Wouldn't it be ironic if the storm everyone is keying on (day 7) is a complete fail and the storm most have already dismissed (Wed storm) ends up being the haymaker? Okay commence with the bashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 onto the euro...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: lol yea...i just didnt want zero Well yeah, but it's better than having the GFS show zero, but from a rainstorm that jackpots central/western PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Wouldn't it be ironic if the storm everyone is keying on (day 7) is a complete fail and the storm most have already dismissed (Wed storm) ends up being the haymaker? Okay commence with the bashing. speaking of that...the ICON for next week(day 7) looks exactly like Wednesdays Fail. So Double Fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: Well yeah, but it's better than having the GFS show zero, but from a rainstorm that jackpots central/western PA well that wasnt happening. Its either snow or too far south. I guess the good thing is all those rainy solutions from 2 days are gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Wouldn't it be ironic if the storm everyone is keying on (day 7) is a complete fail and the storm most have already dismissed (Wed storm) ends up being the haymaker? Okay commence with the bashing. That thought has crossed my mind, though so has the though that we just miss on this one and the next one doesn't work out. That said, I still like our chances of a big storm to end the pattern and basically end winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The cumulative snow map from the two upcoming storms as per 12z gfs is going to be loltastic... Miss to north then miss to south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ji said: i just lost 22 inches of snow. From 22 to 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: speaking of that...the ICON for next week(day 7) looks exactly like Wednesdays Fail. So Double Fail Top analog in EPS for NHEM is late Feb 2010. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis/20100223-20100228-5.46.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: speaking of that...the ICON for next week(day 7) looks exactly like Wednesdays Fail. So Double Fail The GFS, ICON, and GGEM all manage to miss in the same general way. They eject the energy in pieces and thus nothing really amplifies right. That is a concern. But the general setup is there and that is the kind of thing the models will struggle with. A lot of times they start to pick up on discreet waves coming out at this range...and it messes things up. Often there is SOME splitting of energy but in the end often the idea of a big storm comes back when the models then figure out which piece to key on and amplify. It's way too soon to worry about any of it too much. But I will admit that strung out ejection of waves is NOT what I wanted to see from the 12z guidance so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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