clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 19 minutes ago, supernovasky said: We've got both of the big operational models on board. I'm excited. The only thing I'd love to see is the GEFS + EPS get on board as well. Both have some decent hits but the operational model would be the best model even in each of the ensembles for us. Gefs dont look ugly for that period really. A little bit south of perfect. But they look good for that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Fozz said: Hah... my only "complaint" about this is that it's still a week away and not < 3 days. What a great run. Maybe it's too early to worry about surface temps, but if we assume that they're correct and it's 34 at the height of the storm, wouldn't that be an issue? I know March 1958 had surface temps a few degrees above freezing, and there was a huge difference in totals based on elevation. Some parts of Baltimore city had 8" while other areas had 20"+. I can just speak from experience last week when I was in Philadelphia. Middle of the day, near white out conditions, and it was 33 degrees. It did accumulate, mostly on the grass, but a little on the street. However 4 hours of white out was basically 2 inches of snow. Light snow was non accumulating and once the snow letup, there was melting going on and the temp jumped 3 degrees. Of course this will be a couple weeks later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Well, the only reason I even bring it up, is that I've heard that people around here trust the ensembles long range and the operational models medium and short range. I've been looking at the members and yeah, the spread is pretty high with some shutouts and some knock outs. I think this is the first major storm I've been able to track since moving here that shows a direct hit to me only 7 days out. I may be a little off by that, but this is definitely the first one where the operational models all showed the same thing. I know for tropical, I always sort of treated the operational as the most likely scenario with the ensembles as the "spread"/"error cone". If I treated it the same way here, I feel pretty dang good about getting SOMETHING, and am just F5-ing weatherbell every time we get a new model drop to make sure the trends stay good It's a legitimate concern...but a signal from this range on the ensembles is seeing a cluster of hits...with some north and some south...the mean being good. And I would add I like to see the mean a little south of ideal at this range. Historically things adjust some...and 70% of the time that adjustment at range is north not south. But its unlikely we see total agreement at day 7 across a majority of the members. But that agreement should start to come soon if this is as legit as we think/hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It's a legitimate concern...but a signal from this range on the ensembles is seeing a cluster of hits...with some north and some south...the mean being good. And I would add I like to see the mean a little south of ideal at this range. Historically things adjust some...and 70% of the time that adjustment at range is north not south. But its unlikely we see total agreement at day 7 across a majority of the members. But that agreement should start to come soon if this is as legit as we think/hope. Sweet! Well, I know I'm going to be glued to the models throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Something I noticed going back through the last 5 days of GFS runs... this threat really did show up very early on. Something resembling this general outcome has been there on 90% of the runs from 5 days ago. Some cut. Some suppressed. But the idea of a major east coast amplification as the block breaks down was there every run. Another thing...and this speaks to how loaded the pattern is, this end result or something close too it came about even with vastly different timing and initial location of the northern stream vorts diving out of Canada. And in a few runs a storm still resulted even from a completely different vort. That is why the timing has changed. There was one run in particular where the vort that is being keyed on right now missed the boat and a completely different vort dove in next and bombed out anyways. This is why we see so many big storms from this general configuration of the NAO, 50/50, PNA, and EPO. It creates a window where we have so much wiggle room and aren't reliant on perfect timing of vorts. So many different players from run to run and they still end the same with an amped up storm along the east coast. It's also why we usually see these things at the end of patterns and big warm ups after. The EPO part (a trough just off the west coast up into Alaska) helps pump a PNA ridge where we want it across the Rockies and it opens a great window...but its also not sustainable because after a few days it floods the CONUS with pacific air and then we warm up. I'm feeling pretty optimistic about this because some kind of threat has been there for several days and it seems the consistency between the GFS OP and Euro OP today looks pretty good from my completely amateur perspective. I started following this forum in 2015-2016 and I remember the threat for Jan '16 was there for at least a week before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 hours ago, Mdecoy said: Its a legit question....... Not trying to be negative. It looks like the most amazing thing I've seen in a long time. I am just questioning the "ifs". Snowquester is still a recent memory and a valid concern IMO. I think that is fair. If we all took up a collection, how much would it cost for you to stop posting? PayPal addy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 46 minutes ago, supernovasky said: We've got both of the big operational models on board. I'm excited. The only thing I'd love to see is the GEFS + EPS get on board as well. Both have some decent hits but the operational model would be the best model even in each of the ensembles for us. But it is still one variation at 200+ hours out. This is why so so many times we look at an op/control and say "its just 1 variation". At such long leads with so many moving parts, its nothing more than one of mny options. Look at ensembles for %'s of hits vs misses and that'll give you the best guess at said time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I really....really feel bad the spouses of a few folks on this board.... Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If we all took up a collection, how much would it cost for you to stop posting? PayPal addy? Mdecoy is at least good for lolz even if he sometimes acts like a moron. I'd rather silence Vice-Regent than him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 So lets just put out a disclaimer that moving forward, we ALL know how things can fail March/sun/temps....blah blah blah. We get that. Acceptinig failure is a prerequisit for this hobby, becuase many/most times we do, as tellies/patterns don't line up quite right. We get that. We also know its the first "BIG" run and it can go poof. We get that too. But what most of us also know, is that when things line up, it CAN snow, and snow BIG...and yes in March (ya'll are old enough to remember a couple March doozies). This upcoming period has been showing up and the models are responding accordingly. Is will likely be the best window we've had for some time as the NAO has been basically non existent, and with it trending favorable, some should just sit back and enjoy the ride. Weve been swingin at curveballs and changups for a long time, and now with the NAO on board, it may just be a rising fastball. The window may be a brief one, but its better than what we've had for some time. Carry on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 35 minutes ago, Fozz said: Mdecoy is at least good for lolz even if he sometimes acts like a moron. I'd rather silence Vice-Regent than him. Ok Fozz. Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: At this range they are going to have some spread...and that spread is going to hurt the mean a LOT. Plus add in the marginal temperature issue given the time of year and the lower resolution of the GEFS is going to struggle with that. "IF" this is the real deal we should start to see a steady uptick in the means soon as group think takes over. We are on the edge of that right now. Usually they enter that stage inside day 7. There are some massive hits on the ensembles. I saw a few EPS members last night that dropped the hammer. The GEFS members seem to be having temperature issues...a few absolute qpf bombs but only light accumulations...the lower resolution of those might be an issue there. Or they just think it will be warmer. But that is the kind of detail I will trust the higher res ops with and they all show enough cold to make this work IF...yea I know huge if...the storm comes together with enough amplitude and a good track. I am not too concerned with the ensembles yet. If they continue to show a lot of spread in another day or two I will be more worried. i didnt see many ensmemble members with a dreaded N and W trend...seems like if anything...we wil get a direct hit or the low will scoot harmlessly out to sea due east with gaining latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: i didnt see many ensmemble members with a dreaded N and W trend...seems like if anything...we wil get a direct hit or the low will scoot harmlessly out to sea due east with gaining latitude Thank you NAO.... Nice of you to join the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 hour ago, supernovasky said: Well, the only reason I even bring it up, is that I've heard that people around here trust the ensembles long range and the operational models medium and short range. I've been looking at the members and yeah, the spread is pretty high with some shutouts and some knock outs. I think this is the first major storm I've been able to track since moving here that shows a direct hit to me only 7 days out. I may be a little off by that, but this is definitely the first one where the operational models all showed the same thing. I know for tropical, I always sort of treated the operational as the most likely scenario with the ensembles as the "spread"/"error cone". If I treated it the same way here, I feel pretty dang good about getting SOMETHING, and am just F5-ing weatherbell every time we get a new model drop to make sure the trends stay good I still trust the ensembles (means) more then the ops at this range especially for the larger scale features (general overall pattern). And they are very supportive of seeing a significant storm in the east at that time. The ops we are seeing fit in with the overall look at what the ensembles are showing and are a very believable option. But they are just an option. What the ops are good for are parsing out the finer/smaller details within the general overall pattern which define a storm. And to expect them to have that right at range is probably asking a lot. For now I am content with both the ops and the ensembles having the general overall idea of a significant storm impacting our region. When it comes to the details of that I will start worrying around day 3/4 as then the ops will be getting a better handle on the smaller features. 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Something I noticed going back through the last 5 days of GFS runs... this threat really did show up very early on. Something resembling this general outcome has been there on 90% of the runs from 5 days ago. Some cut. Some suppressed. But the idea of a major east coast amplification as the block breaks down was there every run. Another thing...and this speaks to how loaded the pattern is, this end result or something close too it came about even with vastly different timing and initial location of the northern stream vorts diving out of Canada. And in a few runs a storm still resulted even from a completely different vort. That is why the timing has changed. There was one run in particular where the vort that is being keyed on right now missed the boat and a completely different vort dove in next and bombed out anyways. This is why we see so many big storms from this general configuration of the NAO, 50/50, PNA, and EPO. It creates a window where we have so much wiggle room and aren't reliant on perfect timing of vorts. So many different players from run to run and they still end the same with an amped up storm along the east coast. It's also why we usually see these things at the end of patterns and big warm ups after. The EPO part (a trough just off the west coast up into Alaska) helps pump a PNA ridge where we want it across the Rockies and it opens a great window...but its also not sustainable because after a few days it floods the CONUS with pacific air and then we warm up. Almost posted something similar yesterday. On rare occasion it just seems that the models need and/or want a certain solution to occur. They will go through multiple variations/evolutions of the pattern beforehand and yet they will still arrive at that same specific solution. After looking over the models yesterday that is exactly how I was feeling about our day 7 event. Needless to say for a day 7 event I am fairly confident we do see a very favorable pattern for significant low in the east/southeast that will be in a favorable position to impact us. Now whether we can score and/or score big will be the smaller details we will have to work out over the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I still trust the ensembles (means) more then the ops at this range especially for the larger scale features (general overall pattern). And they are very supportive of seeing a significant storm in the east at that time. The ops we are seeing fit in with the overall look at what the ensembles are showing and are a very believable option. But they are just an option. What the ops are good for are parsing out the finer/smaller details within the general overall pattern which define a storm. And to expect them to have that right at range is probably asking a lot. For now I am content with both the ops and the ensembles having the general overall idea of a significant storm impacting our region. When it comes to the details of that I will start worrying around day 3/4 as then the ops will be getting a better handle on the smaller features. Almost posted something similar yesterday. On rare occasion it just seems that the models need and/or want a certain solution to occur. They will go through multiple variations/evolutions of the pattern beforehand and yet they will still arrive at that same specific solution. After looking over the models yesterday that is exactly how I was feeling about our day 7 event. Needless to say for a day 7 event I am fairly confident we do see a very favorable pattern for significant low in the east/southeast that will be in a favorable position to impact us. Now whether we can score and/or score big will be the smaller details we will have to work out over the coming days. Are you at all worried that the EPS mean snow depth never gets above an inch? Wouldn't we be wanting to see a lot more members coming in with op like solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 selection sunday and an incoming storm would be a nice combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Are you at all worried that the EPS mean snow depth never gets above an inch? Wouldn't we be wanting to see a lot more members coming in with op like solutions? 1 inch snowfall depth? Are you talking DC? I have 2 inch mean showing at this point in DC. But anyway. At this point all I am getting fairly confident about is the general overall pattern strongly favors a significant storm in the east/southeast. As far as the snowfall means and what they mean that is some of the finer details that need to be worked out over the coming days. So at this point, No, I am not concerned. But if we don't start seeing an uptick in the coming couple of days then yeah I think that would possible throw up a red flag especially if we start seeing a deterioration within the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12z GFS doesn't have the closed h5 low 06z did at 126 and is a bit further east with the energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 GFS is getting snow close to the area on Saturday morning now. This is going to be a fantastic run again. Bowling ball incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, clskinsfan said: GFS is getting snow close to the area on Saturday morning now. This is going to be a fantastic run again. Bowling ball incoming. What are you out to on h5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z GFS doesn't have the closed h5 low 06z did at 126 and isn't digging as much It does close off, but it is riding east of STL rather than west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z GFS doesn't have the closed h5 low 06z did at 126 and is a but further east with the energy We are losing the 500's this run. Short of seeing that trough drop straight south at 126 I think we are going to see a progressive solution, one we probably don't like. Hope I am wrong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, yoda said: What are you out to on h5? 147 on IWM. I cant hotlink from there. But it has a closed 500 low just NW of TN at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 150 is South of 6z, significantly colder, SLP off of the NC/SC border. Edit: Looks to be more progressive as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: We are losing the 500's this run. Short of seeing that trough drop straight south at 126 I think we are going to see a progressive solution, one we probably don't like. Hope I am wrong here. For 7 day leads it looks very good to me. More cold available in the mid levels. As long as we don't trend to a rainstorm or lose the storm all together we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Good grief that is perty...!! Remember folks, were just working on getting the storm on the boards....cant fret over backyards yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Its a little bit further south and misses the stack this run. But it is in a good spot at this range. And it is a HUGE storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: We are losing the 500's this run. Short of seeing that trough drop straight south at 126 I think we are going to see a progressive solution, one we probably don't like. Hope I am wrong here. IMO the two biggest risks to this going wrong are if the northern stream vort dives in too far east or late....and if too much of the southern stream energy gets left behind and there isn't enough focused energy for the vort digging to amplify with. The 12z so far is showing some small bits of both...but it might still work out. We will see...but slight negative trends on both of those fronts. NOTHING to panic or worry about yet...just pointing out what I think are the two biggest threats to this disappearing before getting into the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Still looks positively tilted to me at 159 hours. Looking at H5 of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I'm slow but the EPS was beautiful last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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